Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)
$108.45
+1.73 (+1.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 481.97 | 422.97 | 495.02 | 464.59 | 462.49 | 460.41 | 458.33 | 456.26 | 454.20 | 452.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 65.86 | 60.38 | 68.64 | 64.84 | 64.48 | 64.18 | 63.89 | 63.61 | 63.32 | 63.03 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 55.76 | 49.85 | 57.04 | 50.10 | 52.80 | 52.56 | 52.32 | 52.09 | 51.85 | 51.62 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 10.09 | 10.53 | 11.59 | 14.74 | 11.68 | 11.62 | 11.57 | 11.52 | 11.47 | 11.42 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 23.55 | 32.92 | 28.57 | 31.59 | 32.60 | 29.73 | 29.60 | 29.46 | 29.33 | 29.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 56.05 | 50.95 | 62.42 | 51.93 | 56.65 | 54.98 | 54.73 | 54.49 | 54.24 | 54 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2.49 | 1.34 | 6.47 | 3.30 | 4.23 | 3.47 | 3.45 | 3.44 | 3.42 | 3.41 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -10.19 | -7.64 | -8.20 | -8.25 | -8.50 | -8.46 | -8.42 | -8.39 | -8.35 | -8.31 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 108.45 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.353 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.98 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 42.13 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.89% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.086 |
| Total Debt | 157.42 |
| Total Equity | 1,408.22 |
| Total Capital | 1,565.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 10.05 |
| Equity Weighting | 89.95 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 481.97 | 422.97 | 495.02 | 464.59 | 462.49 | 460.41 | 458.33 | 456.26 | 454.20 | 452.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 65.86 | 60.38 | 68.64 | 64.84 | 64.48 | 64.18 | 63.89 | 63.61 | 63.32 | 63.03 |
| EBIT | 55.76 | 49.85 | 57.04 | 50.10 | 52.80 | 52.56 | 52.32 | 52.09 | 51.85 | 51.62 |
| Tax Rate | 43.53% | 46.28% | 44.22% | 42.13% | 44.04% | 44.04% | 44.04% | 44.04% | 44.04% | 44.04% |
| EBIAT | 31.49 | 26.78 | 31.82 | 28.99 | 29.55 | 29.41 | 29.28 | 29.15 | 29.02 | 28.88 |
| Depreciation | 10.09 | 10.53 | 11.59 | 14.74 | 11.68 | 11.62 | 11.57 | 11.52 | 11.47 | 11.42 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 5.11 | -11.47 | 10.48 | -4.71 | 1.67 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.16 | 5.14 | -3.17 | 0.93 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| Capital Expenditure | -10.19 | -7.64 | -8.20 | -8.25 | -8.50 | -8.46 | -8.42 | -8.39 | -8.35 | -8.31 |
| UFCF | 31.40 | 33.62 | 28.88 | 42.80 | 28.94 | 33.48 | 32.66 | 32.51 | 32.37 | 32.22 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 28.94 | 30.61 | 27.31 | 24.86 | 22.63 | 20.60 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 126 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.36 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 32.86 |
| Terminal Value | 446.53 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 285.47 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 411.47 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 124.82 |
| Equity Value | 286.65 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.98 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 22.08 |