Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Unitil Corporation (UTL)

$52.33

-0.06 (-0.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -73.93 | 52.33 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 406.20444.10438.20418.60473.30492.94513.39534.69556.88579.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 118.90118.20136.60123.30134.30142.84148.77154.94161.37168.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7267.8084.6068.8074.8083.3486.8090.4094.1598.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 46.9050.405254.5059.5059.5061.9764.5467.2270.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8.907.805.2066.507.838.158.498.849.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 126.50129.60111.20117.80135.50140.46146.29152.36158.68165.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7.507.808.709.109.609.6510.0510.4710.9011.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 41.5042.6037.6033.2052.4046.7248.6650.6852.7854.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -119.30-102.40-119.20-122.60-115-131.33-136.78-142.46-148.37-154.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 52.33
Beta 0.483
Diluted Shares Outstanding 14.95
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.792
Total Debt 570.10
Total Equity 782.44
Total Capital 1,352.54
Debt Weighting 42.15
Equity Weighting 57.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 406.20444.10438.20418.60473.30492.94513.39534.69556.88579.98
EBITDA 118.90118.20136.60123.30134.30142.84148.77154.94161.37168.07
EBIT 7267.8084.6068.8074.8083.3486.8090.4094.1598.06
Tax Rate 37.63%20.29%23.79%24.06%24.16%25.99%25.99%25.99%25.99%25.99%
EBIAT 44.9054.0464.4752.2556.7361.6964.2466.9169.6972.58
Depreciation 46.9050.405254.5059.5059.5061.9764.5467.2270.01
Accounts Receivable --3.1018.40-6.60-17.70-4.96-5.83-6.07-6.32-6.58
Inventories --0.30-0.90-0.40-0.50-0.05-0.40-0.42-0.43-0.45
Accounts Payable -1.10-5-4.4019.20-5.681.942.022.102.19
Capital Expenditure -119.30-102.40-119.20-122.60-115-131.33-136.78-142.46-148.37-154.52
UFCF -27.50-0.269.77-27.252.23-20.84-14.86-15.48-16.12-16.79
WACC
PV UFCF -19.87-13.51-13.41-13.32-13.23
SUM PV UFCF -73.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) -17.12
Terminal Value -594.52
Present Value of Terminal Value -468.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -541.83
Net Debt 563.60
Equity Value -1,105.43
Shares Outstanding 14.95
Equity Value Per Share -73.93