Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corpor... (VAC)

$147.5

+0.26 (+0.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -529.69 | 147.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,951.942,9684,3552,8863,8904,860.976,074.307,590.489,485.1111,852.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 282.17222494-86433402.78503.32628.95785.93982.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 260.67160353-209287262.37327.85409.69511.95639.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 21.4962141123146140.41175.46219.26273.99342.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 409.06231287524342605.46756.59945.441,181.431,476.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,273.802,3632,5562,1162,3243,272.674,089.555,110.336,385.907,979.87
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 716.538638597597191,266.701,582.871,977.972,471.683,088.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 145.41245286209265353.15441.30551.45689.10861.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -26.30-40-46-41-47-62.03-77.51-96.86-121.03-151.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 147.5
Beta 2.095
Diluted Shares Outstanding 43.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 61.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.580
Total Debt 4,487
Total Equity 6,386.75
Total Capital 10,873.75
Debt Weighting 41.26
Equity Weighting 58.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,951.942,9684,3552,8863,8904,860.976,074.307,590.489,485.1111,852.66
EBITDA 282.17222494-86433402.78503.32628.95785.93982.11
EBIT 260.67160353-209287262.37327.85409.69511.95639.73
Tax Rate -0.40%46.60%38.67%19.12%61.42%33.08%33.08%33.08%33.08%33.08%
EBIAT 261.7085.44216.51-169.04110.73175.57219.39274.16342.59428.10
Depreciation 21.4962141123146140.41175.46219.26273.99342.37
Accounts Receivable --1,089.20-193440-208-948.67-816.88-1,020.78-1,275.57-1,593.96
Inventories --146.47410040-547.70-316.18-395.10-493.71-616.95
Accounts Payable -99.5941-775688.1588.15110.15137.65172
Capital Expenditure -26.30-40-46-41-47-62.03-77.51-96.86-121.03-151.24
UFCF 256.90-1,028.63163.51375.9697.73-1,154.26-727.56-909.16-1,136.10-1,419.67
WACC
PV UFCF -1,063.25-617.35-710.61-817.97-941.54
SUM PV UFCF -4,150.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.56
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,448.07
Terminal Value -22,074.18
Present Value of Terminal Value -14,639.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -18,790.52
Net Debt 4,145
Equity Value -22,935.52
Shares Outstanding 43.30
Equity Value Per Share -529.69