Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT)
$26.03
-0.03 (-0.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 71.95 | 92.01 | 120.37 | 117.48 | 219.51 | 298.07 | 404.74 | 549.58 | 746.26 | 1,013.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -23.76 | -17.12 | -7.81 | -27.45 | -62.06 | -65.42 | -88.83 | -120.62 | -163.78 | -222.39 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -27.60 | -21.04 | -11.92 | -35.39 | -81.65 | -82.53 | -112.07 | -152.17 | -206.63 | -280.57 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.84 | 3.92 | 4.12 | 7.94 | 19.59 | 17.11 | 23.24 | 31.55 | 42.85 | 58.18 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 33.89 | 78 | 159.32 | 349.36 | 173.20 | 381.83 | 518.48 | 704.02 | 955.96 | 1,298.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 12.72 | 13.17 | 19.33 | 18.46 | 41.46 | 49.27 | 66.90 | 90.84 | 123.35 | 167.49 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 5.32 | 3.40 | 6.81 | 6.56 | 12.26 | 16.64 | 22.60 | 30.69 | 41.67 | 56.58 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.85 | 2.52 | 2.33 | 3.12 | 12.36 | 10.91 | 14.82 | 20.12 | 27.32 | 37.10 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.75 | -1.87 | -2.76 | -2.84 | -5.38 | -6.93 | -9.41 | -12.78 | -17.36 | -23.57 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 26.03 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.464 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 53.24 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 7.45 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.63% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.426 |
| Total Debt | 18.85 |
| Total Equity | 1,385.82 |
| Total Capital | 1,404.67 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.34 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.66 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 71.95 | 92.01 | 120.37 | 117.48 | 219.51 | 298.07 | 404.74 | 549.58 | 746.26 | 1,013.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -23.76 | -17.12 | -7.81 | -27.45 | -62.06 | -65.42 | -88.83 | -120.62 | -163.78 | -222.39 |
| EBIT | -27.60 | -21.04 | -11.92 | -35.39 | -81.65 | -82.53 | -112.07 | -152.17 | -206.63 | -280.57 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.86% | 7.45% | 1.86% | 1.86% | 1.86% | 1.86% | 1.86% |
| EBIAT | -27.60 | -21.04 | -11.92 | -34.73 | -75.56 | -80.99 | -109.98 | -149.33 | -202.78 | -275.34 |
| Depreciation | 3.84 | 3.92 | 4.12 | 7.94 | 19.59 | 17.11 | 23.24 | 31.55 | 42.85 | 58.18 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.45 | -6.16 | 0.87 | -23 | -7.81 | -17.63 | -23.94 | -32.51 | -44.14 |
| Inventories | - | 1.92 | -3.40 | 0.25 | -5.70 | -4.39 | -5.96 | -8.09 | -10.98 | -14.91 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.34 | -0.19 | 0.79 | 9.24 | -1.45 | 3.91 | 5.30 | 7.20 | 9.78 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.75 | -1.87 | -2.76 | -2.84 | -5.38 | -6.93 | -9.41 | -12.78 | -17.36 | -23.57 |
| UFCF | -25.51 | -18.86 | -20.31 | -27.72 | -80.80 | -84.45 | -115.84 | -157.29 | -213.58 | -290.01 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -76.53 | -95.13 | -117.05 | -144.03 | -177.24 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -609.98 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.35 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -295.81 |
| Terminal Value | -3,542.63 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,165.03 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -2,775.01 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -154.34 |
| Equity Value | -2,620.67 |
| Shares Outstanding | 53.24 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -49.22 |