Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
VGP NV (VGP.BR)
78.6 €
+0.30 (+0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 26.59 | 27.80 | 31.46 | 46.41 | 72.77 | 94.96 | 123.93 | 161.74 | 211.08 | 275.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 154.19 | 257.09 | 427.58 | 787.20 | -100.39 | 839.86 | 1,096.06 | 1,430.40 | 1,866.74 | 2,436.19 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 154.01 | 255.88 | 425.50 | 784.76 | -104.87 | 835.49 | 1,090.35 | 1,422.96 | 1,857.03 | 2,423.51 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.18 | 1.21 | 2.08 | 2.43 | 4.48 | 4.37 | 5.70 | 7.44 | 9.71 | 12.68 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 161.45 | 176.15 | 222.36 | 222.16 | 699.17 | 643.29 | 839.53 | 1,095.62 | 1,429.84 | 1,866 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 40.68 | 56.49 | 58.99 | 107.24 | 110.68 | 176.03 | 229.73 | 299.81 | 391.26 | 510.61 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -263.34 | -453.85 | -412.58 | -608.54 | -954.24 | -1,245.33 | -1,625.21 | -2,120.98 | -2,767.97 | -3,612.33 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 78.6 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.844 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 22.31 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 14.05 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.37% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.455 |
| Total Debt | 2,374.17 |
| Total Equity | 1,753.69 |
| Total Capital | 4,127.86 |
| Debt Weighting | 57.52 |
| Equity Weighting | 42.48 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 26.59 | 27.80 | 31.46 | 46.41 | 72.77 | 94.96 | 123.93 | 161.74 | 211.08 | 275.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 154.19 | 257.09 | 427.58 | 787.20 | -100.39 | 839.86 | 1,096.06 | 1,430.40 | 1,866.74 | 2,436.19 |
| EBIT | 154.01 | 255.88 | 425.50 | 784.76 | -104.87 | 835.49 | 1,090.35 | 1,422.96 | 1,857.03 | 2,423.51 |
| Tax Rate | 11.67% | 13.65% | 9.70% | 14.90% | 14.05% | 12.80% | 12.80% | 12.80% | 12.80% | 12.80% |
| EBIAT | 136.04 | 220.95 | 384.21 | 667.81 | -90.14 | 728.58 | 950.83 | 1,240.88 | 1,619.41 | 2,113.40 |
| Depreciation | 0.18 | 1.21 | 2.08 | 2.43 | 4.48 | 4.37 | 5.70 | 7.44 | 9.71 | 12.68 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 15.81 | 2.50 | 48.25 | 3.44 | 65.36 | 53.70 | 70.08 | 91.45 | 119.35 |
| Capital Expenditure | -263.34 | -453.85 | -412.58 | -608.54 | -954.24 | -1,245.33 | -1,625.21 | -2,120.98 | -2,767.97 | -3,612.33 |
| UFCF | -127.12 | -215.88 | -23.80 | 109.95 | -1,036.46 | -447.02 | -614.98 | -802.57 | -1,047.40 | -1,366.90 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -430.03 | -569.13 | -714.51 | -897.04 | -1,126.20 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -3,736.92 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.95 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,394.24 |
| Terminal Value | -71,499.40 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -58,908.77 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -62,645.68 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,675 |
| Equity Value | -64,320.68 |
| Shares Outstanding | 22.31 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2,882.84 |