Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

VGP NV (VGP.BR)

78.6 €

+0.30 (+0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2,882.84 | 78.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 26.5927.8031.4646.4172.7794.96123.93161.74211.08275.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 154.19257.09427.58787.20-100.39839.861,096.061,430.401,866.742,436.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 154.01255.88425.50784.76-104.87835.491,090.351,422.961,857.032,423.51
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.181.212.082.434.484.375.707.449.7112.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 161.45176.15222.36222.16699.17643.29839.531,095.621,429.841,866
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 40.6856.4958.99107.24110.68176.03229.73299.81391.26510.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -263.34-453.85-412.58-608.54-954.24-1,245.33-1,625.21-2,120.98-2,767.97-3,612.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 78.6
Beta 0.844
Diluted Shares Outstanding 22.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.455
Total Debt 2,374.17
Total Equity 1,753.69
Total Capital 4,127.86
Debt Weighting 57.52
Equity Weighting 42.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 26.5927.8031.4646.4172.7794.96123.93161.74211.08275.46
EBITDA 154.19257.09427.58787.20-100.39839.861,096.061,430.401,866.742,436.19
EBIT 154.01255.88425.50784.76-104.87835.491,090.351,422.961,857.032,423.51
Tax Rate 11.67%13.65%9.70%14.90%14.05%12.80%12.80%12.80%12.80%12.80%
EBIAT 136.04220.95384.21667.81-90.14728.58950.831,240.881,619.412,113.40
Depreciation 0.181.212.082.434.484.375.707.449.7112.68
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -15.812.5048.253.4465.3653.7070.0891.45119.35
Capital Expenditure -263.34-453.85-412.58-608.54-954.24-1,245.33-1,625.21-2,120.98-2,767.97-3,612.33
UFCF -127.12-215.88-23.80109.95-1,036.46-447.02-614.98-802.57-1,047.40-1,366.90
WACC
PV UFCF -430.03-569.13-714.51-897.04-1,126.20
SUM PV UFCF -3,736.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,394.24
Terminal Value -71,499.40
Present Value of Terminal Value -58,908.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -62,645.68
Net Debt 1,675
Equity Value -64,320.68
Shares Outstanding 22.31
Equity Value Per Share -2,882.84