Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Velan Inc. (VLN.TO)

$12.75

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -31.38 | 12.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 337.96366.87371.63302.06411.24439.28469.24501.23535.41571.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -3.277.957.7416.4339.7316.1517.2518.4319.6821.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -16.15-5.62-5.243.9528.080.360.390.420.440.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.8813.5712.9812.4911.6515.7916.8618.0119.2420.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 86.0471.3375.9574.9762.7492.6298.93105.68112.88120.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 145.39154.38143.99139.17118.79174.67186.58199.30212.89227.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 170.79165.58170.26204.16223.20231.37247.15264282301.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 23.6331.0232.0937.0834.3139.2741.9544.8147.8751.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6.64-8.65-12.08-10.90-8.62-11.67-12.46-13.31-14.22-15.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.75
Beta 0.739
Diluted Shares Outstanding 21.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 158.44
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.71%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.893
Total Debt 44.02
Total Equity 275.59
Total Capital 319.61
Debt Weighting 13.77
Equity Weighting 86.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 337.96366.87371.63302.06411.24439.28469.24501.23535.41571.92
EBITDA -3.277.957.7416.4339.7316.1517.2518.4319.6821.03
EBIT -16.15-5.62-5.243.9528.080.360.390.420.440.47
Tax Rate 3.79%36.56%-103.40%-108.51%158.44%-2.63%-2.63%-2.63%-2.63%-2.63%
EBIAT -15.54-3.57-10.658.23-16.410.370.400.430.460.49
Depreciation 12.8813.5712.9812.4911.6515.7916.8618.0119.2420.55
Accounts Receivable --8.9910.394.8220.38-55.88-11.91-12.72-13.59-14.52
Inventories -5.21-4.68-33.90-19.04-8.17-15.78-16.85-18-19.23
Accounts Payable -7.381.084.99-2.774.972.682.863.063.26
Capital Expenditure -6.64-8.65-12.08-10.90-8.62-11.67-12.46-13.31-14.22-15.19
UFCF -9.304.96-2.97-14.28-14.81-54.59-20.21-21.59-23.06-24.63
WACC
PV UFCF -51.78-18.18-18.42-18.66-18.91
SUM PV UFCF -125.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) -25.13
Terminal Value -732.53
Present Value of Terminal Value -562.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -688.31
Net Debt -9.99
Equity Value -678.31
Shares Outstanding 21.61
Equity Value Per Share -31.38