Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Velan Inc. (VLN.TO)
$12.75
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 337.96 | 366.87 | 371.63 | 302.06 | 411.24 | 439.28 | 469.24 | 501.23 | 535.41 | 571.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -3.27 | 7.95 | 7.74 | 16.43 | 39.73 | 16.15 | 17.25 | 18.43 | 19.68 | 21.03 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -16.15 | -5.62 | -5.24 | 3.95 | 28.08 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12.88 | 13.57 | 12.98 | 12.49 | 11.65 | 15.79 | 16.86 | 18.01 | 19.24 | 20.55 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 86.04 | 71.33 | 75.95 | 74.97 | 62.74 | 92.62 | 98.93 | 105.68 | 112.88 | 120.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 145.39 | 154.38 | 143.99 | 139.17 | 118.79 | 174.67 | 186.58 | 199.30 | 212.89 | 227.40 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 170.79 | 165.58 | 170.26 | 204.16 | 223.20 | 231.37 | 247.15 | 264 | 282 | 301.23 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 23.63 | 31.02 | 32.09 | 37.08 | 34.31 | 39.27 | 41.95 | 44.81 | 47.87 | 51.13 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6.64 | -8.65 | -12.08 | -10.90 | -8.62 | -11.67 | -12.46 | -13.31 | -14.22 | -15.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.75 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.739 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 21.61 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 158.44 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -3.71% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.893 |
| Total Debt | 44.02 |
| Total Equity | 275.59 |
| Total Capital | 319.61 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.77 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.23 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 337.96 | 366.87 | 371.63 | 302.06 | 411.24 | 439.28 | 469.24 | 501.23 | 535.41 | 571.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -3.27 | 7.95 | 7.74 | 16.43 | 39.73 | 16.15 | 17.25 | 18.43 | 19.68 | 21.03 |
| EBIT | -16.15 | -5.62 | -5.24 | 3.95 | 28.08 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| Tax Rate | 3.79% | 36.56% | -103.40% | -108.51% | 158.44% | -2.63% | -2.63% | -2.63% | -2.63% | -2.63% |
| EBIAT | -15.54 | -3.57 | -10.65 | 8.23 | -16.41 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| Depreciation | 12.88 | 13.57 | 12.98 | 12.49 | 11.65 | 15.79 | 16.86 | 18.01 | 19.24 | 20.55 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -8.99 | 10.39 | 4.82 | 20.38 | -55.88 | -11.91 | -12.72 | -13.59 | -14.52 |
| Inventories | - | 5.21 | -4.68 | -33.90 | -19.04 | -8.17 | -15.78 | -16.85 | -18 | -19.23 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 7.38 | 1.08 | 4.99 | -2.77 | 4.97 | 2.68 | 2.86 | 3.06 | 3.26 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6.64 | -8.65 | -12.08 | -10.90 | -8.62 | -11.67 | -12.46 | -13.31 | -14.22 | -15.19 |
| UFCF | -9.30 | 4.96 | -2.97 | -14.28 | -14.81 | -54.59 | -20.21 | -21.59 | -23.06 | -24.63 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -51.78 | -18.18 | -18.42 | -18.66 | -18.91 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -125.96 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -25.13 |
| Terminal Value | -732.53 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -562.35 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -688.31 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -9.99 |
| Equity Value | -678.31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.61 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -31.38 |