Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)

$142.47

+0.37 (+0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 161.10 | 142.47 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,890.304,382.874,929.104,856.835,552.206,079.326,656.497,288.457,980.418,738.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 939.84759.23883.011,276.561,481.601,366.201,495.901,637.921,793.431,963.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 664.63449.18534.32932.981,088.83936.131,025.011,122.321,228.881,345.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 275.21310.05348.70343.58392.77430.06470.89515.60564.55618.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 141.6540.04271.591,231.37235482.09527.86577.98632.85692.93
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 588.34540.78570.12631.84722.30790.88865.96948.181,038.201,136.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 384.34429.33458.31448.58521.30578.73633.67693.84759.71831.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 197.33216.47265.16249.17284.85311.89341.50373.92409.42448.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -459.57-469.09-384.09-362.19-451.30-558.01-610.99-668.99-732.51-802.05
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 142.47
Beta 0.701
Diluted Shares Outstanding 133.25
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.51%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.196
Total Debt 4,522.50
Total Equity 18,983.42
Total Capital 23,505.92
Debt Weighting 19.24
Equity Weighting 80.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,890.304,382.874,929.104,856.835,552.206,079.326,656.497,288.457,980.418,738.06
EBITDA 939.84759.23883.011,276.561,481.601,366.201,495.901,637.921,793.431,963.69
EBIT 664.63449.18534.32932.981,088.83936.131,025.011,122.321,228.881,345.54
Tax Rate -66.39%17.24%18.48%20.95%23.23%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%
EBIAT 1,105.87371.72435.57737.55835.87910.82997.301,091.981,195.651,309.17
Depreciation 275.21310.05348.70343.58392.77430.06470.89515.60564.55618.15
Accounts Receivable -47.56-29.34-61.72-90.46-68.57-75.09-82.21-90.02-98.57
Inventories --44.99-28.989.72-72.72-57.43-54.94-60.16-65.87-72.13
Accounts Payable -19.1448.69-15.9935.6827.0429.6132.4235.5038.87
Capital Expenditure -459.57-469.09-384.09-362.19-451.30-558.01-610.99-668.99-732.51-802.05
UFCF 921.51234.39390.54650.95649.84683.92756.79828.64907.31993.45
WACC
PV UFCF 648.33680.07705.88732.67760.48
SUM PV UFCF 3,527.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,013.31
Terminal Value 29,034.78
Present Value of Terminal Value 22,226.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 25,753.46
Net Debt 4,287.50
Equity Value 21,465.96
Shares Outstanding 133.25
Equity Value Per Share 161.10