Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

VNET Group, Inc. (VNET)

$5.17

+0.43 (+9.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -198.40 | 5.17 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 542.83544.17606.23772.64990.371,156.951,351.551,578.881,844.452,154.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -1.68110.40150.61-196.87354.25127.52148.97174.03203.30237.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -108.418.8727.06-355.10151.43-103.08-120.42-140.67-164.34-191.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 106.74101.54123.55158.24202.81230.61269.39314.71367.64429.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 399.76416.57347.57479.40219.60675.08788.63921.271,076.231,257.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 179.47190.57268.73291.61409.03443.01517.52604.57706.26825.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.110.290.230.290.370.430.510.590.690.81
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 40.4662.3248.5046.3078.9694.57110.48129.07150.77176.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -66.39-72.50-207.97-400.55-452.15-364.10-425.34-496.89-580.47-678.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.17
Beta -0.077
Diluted Shares Outstanding 151.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.82
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.202
Total Debt 1,779.51
Total Equity 785.49
Total Capital 2,565
Debt Weighting 69.38
Equity Weighting 30.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 542.83544.17606.23772.64990.371,156.951,351.551,578.881,844.452,154.69
EBITDA -1.68110.40150.61-196.87354.25127.52148.97174.03203.30237.50
EBIT -108.418.8727.06-355.10151.43-103.08-120.42-140.67-164.34-191.98
Tax Rate 27.21%943.30%-45.54%-4.94%24.82%188.97%188.97%188.97%188.97%188.97%
EBIAT -78.91-74.7739.38-372.65113.8591.71107.14125.16146.21170.80
Depreciation 106.74101.54123.55158.24202.81230.61269.39314.71367.64429.48
Accounts Receivable --11.10-78.16-22.88-117.42-33.98-74.51-87.05-101.69-118.79
Inventories --0.180.07-0.06-0.08-0.06-0.07-0.09-0.10-0.12
Accounts Payable -21.86-13.82-2.2032.6615.6115.9118.5821.7125.36
Capital Expenditure -66.39-72.50-207.97-400.55-452.15-364.10-425.34-496.89-580.47-678.10
UFCF -38.57-35.14-136.95-640.10-220.33-60.21-107.49-125.57-146.70-171.37
WACC
PV UFCF -58.71-102.21-116.44-132.64-151.10
SUM PV UFCF -561.10

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) -174.80
Terminal Value -31,781.34
Present Value of Terminal Value -28,021.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -28,582.76
Net Debt 1,559.92
Equity Value -30,142.68
Shares Outstanding 151.93
Equity Value Per Share -198.40