Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS)

$21.09

-0.12 (-0.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -30.03 | 21.09 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 217.36270.29254.19292.69390.13455.32531.39620.17723.79844.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -7.91-24.01-59.20-69.88-89.91-75.34-87.92-102.62-119.76-139.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -11.23-28.16-74.54-79.79-100.80-89.25-104.16-121.57-141.88-165.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.334.1615.349.9010.8913.9116.2418.9522.1225.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 136.56158.91120.46298.26807.61435.21507.92592.79691.83807.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 75.6083.2275.0594.23117.18143.26167.20195.14227.74265.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.642.6210.855.323.013.524.104.795.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.31-9.58-25.39-10.12-10.49-20.15-23.51-27.44-32.03-37.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.09
Beta 1.043
Diluted Shares Outstanding 94.34
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -5.43
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.624
Total Debt 294.02
Total Equity 1,989.57
Total Capital 2,283.59
Debt Weighting 12.88
Equity Weighting 87.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 217.36270.29254.19292.69390.13455.32531.39620.17723.79844.72
EBITDA -7.91-24.01-59.20-69.88-89.91-75.34-87.92-102.62-119.76-139.77
EBIT -11.23-28.16-74.54-79.79-100.80-89.25-104.16-121.57-141.88-165.58
Tax Rate -21.89%-1.47%-3.13%-9.44%-5.43%-8.27%-8.27%-8.27%-8.27%-8.27%
EBIAT -13.69-28.58-76.87-87.32-106.28-96.63-112.78-131.62-153.61-179.28
Depreciation 3.334.1615.349.9010.8913.9116.2418.9522.1225.81
Accounts Receivable --7.638.17-19.18-22.95-26.09-23.94-27.94-32.60-38.05
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.98-1.62-0.154.47-2.310.500.590.690.80
Capital Expenditure -5.31-9.58-25.39-10.12-10.49-20.15-23.51-27.44-32.03-37.38
UFCF -15.68-39.65-80.37-106.86-124.36-131.26-143.49-167.46-195.44-228.09
WACC
PV UFCF -121.60-123.13-133.12-143.92-155.60
SUM PV UFCF -677.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) -232.65
Terminal Value -3,910.17
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,667.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,344.73
Net Debt -511.74
Equity Value -2,832.99
Shares Outstanding 94.34
Equity Value Per Share -30.03