Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)

$20.68

+0.35 (+1.72%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 22.86 | 20.68 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	370.15	448.74	393.59	550.59	741.60	896.45	1,083.64	1,309.91	1,583.43	1,914.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	124.75	229.32	159.70	242.58	318.25	380.73	460.23	556.33	672.49	812.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	21.41	113.76	43.13	125.82	179.57	159.85	193.23	233.58	282.35	341.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	103.35	115.57	116.57	116.75	138.68	220.88	267	322.75	390.15	471.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	65.05	131.51	120.26	101.28	105.20	197.25	238.44	288.22	348.41	421.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	100.47	113.52	182.83	190.09	194.57	286.24	346.01	418.26	505.59	611.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2.03	26.72	24.06	12.09	19.31	31.23	37.75	45.63	55.15	66.67
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	45.19	50.82	34.51	67.56	79.87	99.22	119.94	144.99	175.26	211.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-26.58	-29.68	-24.26	-25	-48.19	-55.57	-67.18	-81.21	-98.16	-118.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 20.68
Beta	1.167
Diluted Shares Outstanding	159.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.25
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.746
Total Debt	1,245.34
Total Equity	3,288.66
Total Capital	4,534
Debt Weighting	27.47
Equity Weighting	72.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	370.15	448.74	393.59	550.59	741.60	896.45	1,083.64	1,309.91	1,583.43	1,914.06
EBITDA	124.75	229.32	159.70	242.58	318.25	380.73	460.23	556.33	672.49	812.92
EBIT	21.41	113.76	43.13	125.82	179.57	159.85	193.23	233.58	282.35	341.30
Tax Rate	21.76%	28.94%	273.46%	38.96%	27.25%	78.07%	78.07%	78.07%	78.07%	78.07%
EBIAT	16.75	80.83	-74.81	76.81	130.64	35.05	42.37	51.21	61.91	74.83
Depreciation	103.35	115.57	116.57	116.75	138.68	220.88	267	322.75	390.15	471.61
Accounts Receivable	-	-13.05	-69.31	-7.26	-4.48	-91.67	-59.77	-72.25	-87.34	-105.57
Inventories	-	-24.69	2.66	11.97	-7.21	-11.92	-6.52	-7.88	-9.53	-11.52
Accounts Payable	-	5.64	-16.32	33.05	12.31	19.35	20.72	25.04	30.27	36.60
Capital Expenditure	-26.58	-29.68	-24.26	-25	-48.19	-55.57	-67.18	-81.21	-98.16	-118.66
UFCF	93.52	134.61	-65.46	206.32	221.76	116.12	196.62	237.67	287.30	347.29
WACC
PV UFCF						107.34	168.01	187.73	209.77	234.40
SUM PV UFCF										907.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.18
Free cash flow (t + 1)	354.24
Terminal Value	5,732.03
Present Value of Terminal Value	3,868.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	4,776.03
Net Debt	1,140.14
Equity Value	3,635.90
Shares Outstanding	159.03
Equity Value Per Share	22.86