Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)

$22.03

+0.38 (+1.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 33.08 | 22.03 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 370.15448.74393.59550.59741.60896.451,083.641,309.911,583.431,914.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 124.75229.32159.70242.58318.25380.73460.23556.33672.49812.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21.41113.7643.13125.82179.57159.85193.23233.58282.35341.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 103.35115.57116.57116.75138.68220.88267322.75390.15471.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 65.05131.51120.26101.28105.20197.25238.44288.22348.41421.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 100.47113.52182.83190.09194.57286.24346.01418.26505.59611.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2.0326.7224.0612.0919.3131.2337.7545.6355.1566.67
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 45.1950.8234.5167.5679.8799.22119.94144.99175.26211.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -26.58-29.68-24.26-25-48.19-55.57-67.18-81.21-98.16-118.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.03
Beta 1.195
Diluted Shares Outstanding 159.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.925
Total Debt 1,245.34
Total Equity 3,503.34
Total Capital 4,748.68
Debt Weighting 26.22
Equity Weighting 73.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 370.15448.74393.59550.59741.60896.451,083.641,309.911,583.431,914.06
EBITDA 124.75229.32159.70242.58318.25380.73460.23556.33672.49812.92
EBIT 21.41113.7643.13125.82179.57159.85193.23233.58282.35341.30
Tax Rate 21.76%28.94%273.46%38.96%27.25%78.07%78.07%78.07%78.07%78.07%
EBIAT 16.7580.83-74.8176.81130.6435.0542.3751.2161.9174.83
Depreciation 103.35115.57116.57116.75138.68220.88267322.75390.15471.61
Accounts Receivable --13.05-69.31-7.26-4.48-91.67-59.77-72.25-87.34-105.57
Inventories --24.692.6611.97-7.21-11.92-6.52-7.88-9.53-11.52
Accounts Payable -5.64-16.3233.0512.3119.3520.7225.0430.2736.60
Capital Expenditure -26.58-29.68-24.26-25-48.19-55.57-67.18-81.21-98.16-118.66
UFCF 93.52134.61-65.46206.32221.76116.12196.62237.67287.30347.29
WACC
PV UFCF 107.13167.36186.64208.15232.14
SUM PV UFCF 901.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.39
Free cash flow (t + 1) 361.19
Terminal Value 8,227.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,499.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,400.88
Net Debt 1,140.14
Equity Value 5,260.74
Shares Outstanding 159.03
Equity Value Per Share 33.08