Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)

$295.77

-3.06 (-1.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2,524.63 | 295.77 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,488.653,047.604,162.826,205.687,574.4010,039.5513,30717,637.8723,378.2530,986.88
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 275.11716.571,560.363,284.462,917.503,282.834,351.265,767.417,644.4610,132.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 213.71644.151,453.423,174.952,791.903,065.274,062.895,385.197,137.849,460.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 61.4072.42106.94109.51125.60217.56288.37382.22506.62671.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,088.673,168.243,808.296,658.907,524.909,758.8312,934.9217,144.6922,724.5730,120.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 384.50476.46633.52885.351,136.801,517.542,011.432,666.073,533.764,683.85
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 111.83124.36167.50280.78353.10437.41579.77768.451,018.551,350.05
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 73.99110.9987.61155.14195276.97367.11486.59644.96854.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -259.42-95.52-75.45-259.80-235-454.99-603.07-799.35-1,059.51-1,404.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 295.77
Beta 0.450
Diluted Shares Outstanding 263.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.22
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.909
Total Debt 934.10
Total Equity 77,904.63
Total Capital 78,838.73
Debt Weighting 1.18
Equity Weighting 98.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,488.653,047.604,162.826,205.687,574.4010,039.5513,30717,637.8723,378.2530,986.88
EBITDA 275.11716.571,560.363,284.462,917.503,282.834,351.265,767.417,644.4610,132.41
EBIT 213.71644.151,453.423,174.952,791.903,065.274,062.895,385.197,137.849,460.90
Tax Rate 1,779.42%-249.34%15.64%13.00%14.22%314.59%314.59%314.59%314.59%314.59%
EBIAT -3,589.092,250.301,226.162,762.242,394.85-6,577.66-8,718.41-11,555.88-15,316.83-20,301.82
Depreciation 61.4072.42106.94109.51125.60217.56288.37382.22506.62671.50
Accounts Receivable --91.96-157.06-251.83-251.45-380.74-493.89-654.64-867.69-1,150.09
Inventories --12.53-43.14-113.27-72.32-84.31-142.36-188.69-250.10-331.50
Accounts Payable -36.99-23.3867.5339.8681.9790.14119.48158.37209.91
Capital Expenditure -259.42-95.52-75.45-259.80-235-454.99-603.07-799.35-1,059.51-1,404.33
UFCF -3,787.112,159.701,034.082,314.382,001.54-7,198.16-9,579.22-12,696.85-16,829.14-22,306.32
WACC
PV UFCF -6,860.62-8,701.89-10,993.13-13,887.66-17,544.32
SUM PV UFCF -57,987.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) -22,752.45
Terminal Value -779,193.46
Present Value of Terminal Value -612,849.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -670,837.19
Net Debt -5,860.90
Equity Value -664,976.29
Shares Outstanding 263.40
Equity Value Per Share -2,524.63