Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vista Outdoor Inc. (VSTO)

$24.26

+0.05 (+0.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -55.15 | 24.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,308.462,058.531,755.872,225.523,044.623,334.033,650.963,998.014,378.044,794.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5.18-539.58-64.38350.07718.5664.5370.6677.3884.7392.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -84.57-617.08-132.24284.96646.22-47.63-52.15-57.11-62.54-68.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 89.7677.5067.8665.1172.34112.15122.81134.49147.27161.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 22.8721.9331.37243.2722.58103.46113.29124.06135.86148.77
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 425.14344.25321.14339.45400.33545.65597.52654.32716.52784.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 382.28344.49331.29454.50642.98624.82684.21749.25820.47898.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 114.5599.2890163.84146.70180.64197.81216.62237.21259.76
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -66.63-42.24-23.77-30.17-42.78-60.36-66.10-72.38-79.26-86.80
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 24.26
Beta 0.708
Diluted Shares Outstanding 59.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.79
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.304
Total Debt 746.20
Total Equity 1,453.30
Total Capital 2,199.49
Debt Weighting 33.93
Equity Weighting 66.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,308.462,058.531,755.872,225.523,044.623,334.033,650.963,998.014,378.044,794.21
EBITDA 5.18-539.58-64.38350.07718.5664.5370.6677.3884.7392.79
EBIT -84.57-617.08-132.24284.96646.22-47.63-52.15-57.11-62.54-68.48
Tax Rate 54.98%3.83%9.32%-2.56%23.79%17.87%17.87%17.87%17.87%17.87%
EBIAT -38.08-593.44-119.91292.24492.48-39.11-42.83-46.90-51.36-56.24
Depreciation 89.7677.5067.8665.1172.34112.15122.81134.49147.27161.27
Accounts Receivable -80.8923.11-18.30-60.89-145.32-51.87-56.80-62.20-68.11
Inventories -37.7913.20-123.21-188.4718.16-59.39-65.04-71.22-77.99
Accounts Payable --15.27-9.2973.84-17.1433.9517.1718.8020.5922.55
Capital Expenditure -66.63-42.24-23.77-30.17-42.78-60.36-66.10-72.38-79.26-86.80
UFCF -14.94-454.77-48.80259.51255.54-80.54-80.21-87.83-96.18-105.32
WACC
PV UFCF -76.20-71.79-74.38-77.05-79.83
SUM PV UFCF -379.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) -107.43
Terminal Value -2,903.53
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,200.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,579.89
Net Debt 723.61
Equity Value -3,303.51
Shares Outstanding 59.91
Equity Value Per Share -55.15