Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ventas, Inc. (VTR)

$51.23

+1.29 (+2.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 78.95 | 51.23 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,568.113,720.923,861.773,795.363,828.013,896.993,967.224,038.714,111.494,185.59
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,632.821,731.651,873.991,921.921,691.332,055.072,092.102,129.812,168.192,207.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,744.87812.01828.37812.16493.92985.761,003.521,021.601,040.021,058.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 887.95919.641,045.621,109.761,197.401,069.311,088.581,108.201,128.171,148.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 81.3572.28343.72650.88679.85374.36381.11387.98394.97402.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,619.13743.681,047.17832.35726.031,039.541,058.281,077.351,096.761,116.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,182.551,086.031,145.701,133.071,090.251,171.691,192.801,214.301,236.181,258.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -431.64-462.73-560.65-528.65-432.97-501.08-510.11-519.30-528.66-538.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 51.23
Beta 1.179
Diluted Shares Outstanding 376.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.689
Total Debt 12,224.78
Total Equity 19,288.25
Total Capital 31,513.03
Debt Weighting 38.79
Equity Weighting 61.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,568.113,720.923,861.773,795.363,828.013,896.993,967.224,038.714,111.494,185.59
EBITDA 2,632.821,731.651,873.991,921.921,691.332,055.072,092.102,129.812,168.192,207.26
EBIT 1,744.87812.01828.37812.16493.92985.761,003.521,021.601,040.021,058.76
Tax Rate -132.21%-8.89%-13.06%-27.42%20.16%-32.28%-32.28%-32.28%-32.28%-32.28%
EBIAT 4,051.80884.20936.581,034.84394.331,3041,327.501,351.421,375.771,400.57
Depreciation 887.95919.641,045.621,109.761,197.401,069.311,088.581,108.201,128.171,148.50
Accounts Receivable -875.45-303.49214.81106.33-313.52-18.73-19.07-19.41-19.76
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --96.5259.67-12.63-42.8181.4321.1121.5021.8822.28
Capital Expenditure -431.64-462.73-560.65-528.65-432.97-501.08-510.11-519.30-528.66-538.19
UFCF 4,508.112,120.031,177.731,818.131,222.281,640.151,908.351,942.741,977.752,013.39
WACC
PV UFCF 1,541.061,684.731,611.471,541.401,474.38
SUM PV UFCF 7,853.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,053.66
Terminal Value 46,358.04
Present Value of Terminal Value 33,947.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 41,800.30
Net Debt 12,075.05
Equity Value 29,725.25
Shares Outstanding 376.50
Equity Value Per Share 78.95