Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Welltower Inc. (WELL)

$66.17

-3.22 (-4.64%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -301.86 | 66.17 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,671.09	5,100.40	4,586.54	4,709.48	5,860.62	6,245.06	6,654.73	7,091.27	7,556.44	8,052.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,310.29	2,834.17	2,552.98	1,887.88	1,988.35	2,931.48	3,123.78	3,328.69	3,547.05	3,779.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,340.22	1,790.95	1,503.20	834.70	677.98	1,572.16	1,675.29	1,785.19	1,902.29	2,027.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	970.07	1,043.22	1,049.78	1,053.18	1,310.37	1,359.32	1,448.49	1,543.50	1,644.76	1,752.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	215.38	284.92	1,545.05	1,308.31	2,131.47	1,349.35	1,437.86	1,532.19	1,632.69	1,739.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,384.28	1,494.35	1,416.47	2,237.78	1,213.02	1,973.83	2,103.31	2,241.28	2,388.31	2,544.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	-	-	101.59	174.80	173.67	185.06	197.20	210.14	223.92	238.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	1,381.16	2,327.16	-17.47	-19.35	1,090.13	1,161.64	1,237.84	1,319.04	1,405.56	1,497.77
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 66.17
Beta	1.043
Diluted Shares Outstanding	465.16
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	4.88
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.424
Total Debt	14,963.91
Total Equity	30,779.50
Total Capital	45,743.42
Debt Weighting	32.71
Equity Weighting	67.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,671.09	5,100.40	4,586.54	4,709.48	5,860.62	6,245.06	6,654.73	7,091.27	7,556.44	8,052.13
EBITDA	2,310.29	2,834.17	2,552.98	1,887.88	1,988.35	2,931.48	3,123.78	3,328.69	3,547.05	3,779.73
EBIT	1,340.22	1,790.95	1,503.20	834.70	677.98	1,572.16	1,675.29	1,785.19	1,902.29	2,027.08
Tax Rate	-90.08%	-127.01%	3,202.32%	-96.86%	4.88%	578.65%	578.65%	578.65%	578.65%	578.65%
EBIAT	2,547.44	4,065.67	-46,634.07	1,643.20	644.88	-7,525.15	-8,018.78	-8,544.80	-9,105.33	-9,702.62
Depreciation	970.07	1,043.22	1,049.78	1,053.18	1,310.37	1,359.32	1,448.49	1,543.50	1,644.76	1,752.65
Accounts Receivable	-	-110.07	77.88	-821.31	1,024.76	-760.81	-129.48	-137.97	-147.02	-156.67
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	73.21	-1.13	11.39	12.14	12.94	13.78	14.69
Capital Expenditure	1,381.16	2,327.16	-17.47	-19.35	1,090.13	1,161.64	1,237.84	1,319.04	1,405.56	1,497.77
UFCF	4,898.67	7,325.99	-45,523.88	1,928.92	4,069.01	-5,753.61	-5,449.80	-5,807.30	-6,188.25	-6,594.19
WACC
PV UFCF						-5,388.79	-4,780.60	-4,771.19	-4,761.80	-4,752.42
SUM PV UFCF										-24,454.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.77
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-6,726.07
Terminal Value	-141,007.78
Present Value of Terminal Value	-101,624.13

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-126,078.93
Net Debt	14,332.23
Equity Value	-140,411.16
Shares Outstanding	465.16
Equity Value Per Share	-301.86