Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Welltower Inc. (WELL)
$81.1
+1.30 (+1.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,671.09 | 5,100.40 | 4,586.54 | 4,709.48 | 5,860.62 | 6,245.06 | 6,654.73 | 7,091.27 | 7,556.44 | 8,052.13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,310.29 | 2,834.17 | 2,552.98 | 1,887.88 | 1,988.35 | 2,931.48 | 3,123.78 | 3,328.69 | 3,547.05 | 3,779.73 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,340.22 | 1,790.95 | 1,503.20 | 834.70 | 677.98 | 1,572.16 | 1,675.29 | 1,785.19 | 1,902.29 | 2,027.08 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 970.07 | 1,043.22 | 1,049.78 | 1,053.18 | 1,310.37 | 1,359.32 | 1,448.49 | 1,543.50 | 1,644.76 | 1,752.65 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 215.38 | 284.92 | 1,545.05 | 1,308.31 | 2,131.47 | 1,349.35 | 1,437.86 | 1,532.19 | 1,632.69 | 1,739.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,384.28 | 1,494.35 | 1,416.47 | 2,237.78 | 1,213.02 | 1,973.83 | 2,103.31 | 2,241.28 | 2,388.31 | 2,544.97 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | - | - | 101.59 | 174.80 | 173.67 | 185.06 | 197.20 | 210.14 | 223.92 | 238.61 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | 1,381.16 | 2,327.16 | -17.47 | -19.35 | 1,090.13 | 1,161.64 | 1,237.84 | 1,319.04 | 1,405.56 | 1,497.77 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 81.1 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.048 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 465.16 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 4.88 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.37% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.689 |
Total Debt | 14,963.91 |
Total Equity | 37,724.31 |
Total Capital | 52,688.23 |
Debt Weighting | 28.40 |
Equity Weighting | 71.60 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,671.09 | 5,100.40 | 4,586.54 | 4,709.48 | 5,860.62 | 6,245.06 | 6,654.73 | 7,091.27 | 7,556.44 | 8,052.13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,310.29 | 2,834.17 | 2,552.98 | 1,887.88 | 1,988.35 | 2,931.48 | 3,123.78 | 3,328.69 | 3,547.05 | 3,779.73 |
EBIT | 1,340.22 | 1,790.95 | 1,503.20 | 834.70 | 677.98 | 1,572.16 | 1,675.29 | 1,785.19 | 1,902.29 | 2,027.08 |
Tax Rate | -90.08% | -127.01% | 3,202.32% | -96.86% | 4.88% | 578.65% | 578.65% | 578.65% | 578.65% | 578.65% |
EBIAT | 2,547.44 | 4,065.67 | -46,634.07 | 1,643.20 | 644.88 | -7,525.15 | -8,018.78 | -8,544.80 | -9,105.33 | -9,702.62 |
Depreciation | 970.07 | 1,043.22 | 1,049.78 | 1,053.18 | 1,310.37 | 1,359.32 | 1,448.49 | 1,543.50 | 1,644.76 | 1,752.65 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -110.07 | 77.88 | -821.31 | 1,024.76 | -760.81 | -129.48 | -137.97 | -147.02 | -156.67 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | 73.21 | -1.13 | 11.39 | 12.14 | 12.94 | 13.78 | 14.69 |
Capital Expenditure | 1,381.16 | 2,327.16 | -17.47 | -19.35 | 1,090.13 | 1,161.64 | 1,237.84 | 1,319.04 | 1,405.56 | 1,497.77 |
UFCF | 4,898.67 | 7,325.99 | -45,523.88 | 1,928.92 | 4,069.01 | -5,753.61 | -5,449.80 | -5,807.30 | -6,188.25 | -6,594.19 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -5,368.18 | -4,744.09 | -4,716.64 | -4,689.35 | -4,662.22 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -24,180.48 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.18 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -6,726.07 |
Terminal Value | -129,846.93 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -91,804.28 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -115,984.76 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 14,332.23 |
Equity Value | -130,316.99 |
Shares Outstanding | 465.16 |
Equity Value Per Share | -280.16 |