Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Welltower Inc. (WELL)

$81.1

+1.30 (+1.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -280.16 | 81.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,671.095,100.404,586.544,709.485,860.626,245.066,654.737,091.277,556.448,052.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,310.292,834.172,552.981,887.881,988.352,931.483,123.783,328.693,547.053,779.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,340.221,790.951,503.20834.70677.981,572.161,675.291,785.191,902.292,027.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 970.071,043.221,049.781,053.181,310.371,359.321,448.491,543.501,644.761,752.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 215.38284.921,545.051,308.312,131.471,349.351,437.861,532.191,632.691,739.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,384.281,494.351,416.472,237.781,213.021,973.832,103.312,241.282,388.312,544.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable --101.59174.80173.67185.06197.20210.14223.92238.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 1,381.162,327.16-17.47-19.351,090.131,161.641,237.841,319.041,405.561,497.77
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 81.1
Beta 1.048
Diluted Shares Outstanding 465.16
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 4.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.689
Total Debt 14,963.91
Total Equity 37,724.31
Total Capital 52,688.23
Debt Weighting 28.40
Equity Weighting 71.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,671.095,100.404,586.544,709.485,860.626,245.066,654.737,091.277,556.448,052.13
EBITDA 2,310.292,834.172,552.981,887.881,988.352,931.483,123.783,328.693,547.053,779.73
EBIT 1,340.221,790.951,503.20834.70677.981,572.161,675.291,785.191,902.292,027.08
Tax Rate -90.08%-127.01%3,202.32%-96.86%4.88%578.65%578.65%578.65%578.65%578.65%
EBIAT 2,547.444,065.67-46,634.071,643.20644.88-7,525.15-8,018.78-8,544.80-9,105.33-9,702.62
Depreciation 970.071,043.221,049.781,053.181,310.371,359.321,448.491,543.501,644.761,752.65
Accounts Receivable --110.0777.88-821.311,024.76-760.81-129.48-137.97-147.02-156.67
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ---73.21-1.1311.3912.1412.9413.7814.69
Capital Expenditure 1,381.162,327.16-17.47-19.351,090.131,161.641,237.841,319.041,405.561,497.77
UFCF 4,898.677,325.99-45,523.881,928.924,069.01-5,753.61-5,449.80-5,807.30-6,188.25-6,594.19
WACC
PV UFCF -5,368.18-4,744.09-4,716.64-4,689.35-4,662.22
SUM PV UFCF -24,180.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) -6,726.07
Terminal Value -129,846.93
Present Value of Terminal Value -91,804.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -115,984.76
Net Debt 14,332.23
Equity Value -130,316.99
Shares Outstanding 465.16
Equity Value Per Share -280.16