Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO)

$57.85

+0.72 (+1.26%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 170.28 | 57.85 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,016.83	1,985.67	2,355.53	3,629.85	4,957.73	6,293.38	7,988.85	10,141.11	12,873.19	16,341.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	180.06	180.17	152.84	440.38	609.69	615.74	781.62	992.20	1,259.50	1,598.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	160.89	156.85	114.74	407.81	556.04	543.72	690.20	876.14	1,112.18	1,411.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	19.18	23.32	38.10	32.56	53.66	72.02	91.42	116.05	147.32	187.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	2.34	37.43	292.58	434.56	282.17	403.85	512.65	650.76	826.08	1,048.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	164.59	158.05	220.80	253.81	254.12	473.41	600.95	762.85	968.37	1,229.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	195.13	201.13	182.94	341.47	525.77	598.91	760.26	965.08	1,225.08	1,555.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	81.04	81.64	132.49	180.03	217.46	290.75	369.08	468.52	594.74	754.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-28.67	-40.86	-32.38	-44.89	-87.97	-98.99	-125.66	-159.51	-202.49	-257.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 57.85
Beta	1.681
Diluted Shares Outstanding	32.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.11
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.503
Total Debt	586.28
Total Equity	1,908.18
Total Capital	2,494.46
Debt Weighting	23.50
Equity Weighting	76.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,016.83	1,985.67	2,355.53	3,629.85	4,957.73	6,293.38	7,988.85	10,141.11	12,873.19	16,341.31
EBITDA	180.06	180.17	152.84	440.38	609.69	615.74	781.62	992.20	1,259.50	1,598.82
EBIT	160.89	156.85	114.74	407.81	556.04	543.72	690.20	876.14	1,112.18	1,411.81
Tax Rate	28.24%	19.52%	20.49%	23.29%	24.11%	23.13%	23.13%	23.13%	23.13%	23.13%
EBIAT	115.45	126.24	91.23	312.83	421.99	417.96	530.56	673.50	854.95	1,085.27
Depreciation	19.18	23.32	38.10	32.56	53.66	72.02	91.42	116.05	147.32	187.01
Accounts Receivable	-	6.54	-62.75	-33.01	-0.32	-219.29	-127.54	-161.90	-205.52	-260.88
Inventories	-	-6	18.18	-158.53	-184.30	-73.14	-161.35	-204.82	-260	-330.05
Accounts Payable	-	0.60	50.85	47.54	37.43	73.29	78.33	99.43	126.22	160.23
Capital Expenditure	-28.67	-40.86	-32.38	-44.89	-87.97	-98.99	-125.66	-159.51	-202.49	-257.04
UFCF	105.96	109.83	103.24	156.50	240.49	171.86	285.77	362.76	460.48	584.54
WACC
PV UFCF						156.15	235.91	272.10	313.83	361.97
SUM PV UFCF										1,339.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.06
Free cash flow (t + 1)	596.23
Terminal Value	7,397.42
Present Value of Terminal Value	4,580.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	5,920.67
Net Debt	304.11
Equity Value	5,616.56
Shares Outstanding	32.98
Equity Value Per Share	170.28