Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Wingstop Inc. (WING)

$130.75

-3.78 (-2.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 3.69 | 130.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 133.32153.18199.68248.81282.50341.40412.59498.61602.57728.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 26.0321.1214.1117.6881.8352.2063.0976.2492.13111.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 22.6516.808.6310.1673.8942.6951.5962.3575.3591.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.384.315.487.527.949.5111.4913.8916.7820.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4.0612.4912.8540.8648.583542.3051.1161.7774.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.075.765.844.938.1111.5013.9016.7920.3024.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.220.300.320.430.480.590.710.861.031.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.752.753.353.665.415.586.748.159.8511.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.53-3.98-22.49-6.05-28.02-19.20-23.20-28.04-33.88-40.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 130.75
Beta 1.678
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.58
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.815
Total Debt 471.84
Total Equity 3,896.87
Total Capital 4,368.71
Debt Weighting 10.80
Equity Weighting 89.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 133.32153.18199.68248.81282.50341.40412.59498.61602.57728.20
EBITDA 26.0321.1214.1117.6881.8352.2063.0976.2492.13111.34
EBIT 22.6516.808.6310.1673.8942.6951.5962.3575.3591.06
Tax Rate 16.71%19.34%20.53%13.50%27.58%19.53%19.53%19.53%19.53%19.53%
EBIAT 18.8713.556.868.7953.5134.3541.5250.1760.6373.27
Depreciation 3.384.315.487.527.949.5111.4913.8916.7820.28
Accounts Receivable -1.30-0.080.91-3.18-3.39-2.40-2.90-3.50-4.23
Inventories --0.08-0.02-0.11-0.06-0.10-0.12-0.15-0.18-0.22
Accounts Payable -10.600.311.760.171.161.411.702.05
Capital Expenditure -2.54-3.98-22.49-6.05-28.02-19.20-23.20-28.04-33.88-40.94
UFCF 19.7116.10-9.6411.3731.9521.3428.4534.3941.5650.22
WACC
PV UFCF 19.4223.5625.9128.4931.32
SUM PV UFCF 128.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 51.22
Terminal Value 648.41
Present Value of Terminal Value 404.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 533.14
Net Debt 423.25
Equity Value 109.89
Shares Outstanding 29.80
Equity Value Per Share 3.69