Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Wingstop Inc. (WING)

$324.47

+5.21 (+1.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 37.21 | 324.47 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 153.18199.68248.81282.50357.52442.48547.63677.77838.841,038.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 41.3648.3861.8278.34103.42117.47145.38179.93222.69275.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 37.0542.9054.3070.3992.52104.68129.56160.35198.46245.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.315.487.527.9410.9012.7815.8219.5824.2329.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 12.4912.8540.8648.58184.5088.33109.32135.30167.46207.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.765.844.936.999.4612.2015.1118.6923.1428.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.300.320.400.480.390.700.871.071.331.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.753.353.665.415.227.369.1111.2813.9617.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.98-22.49-6.05-28.02-23.94-29.12-36.04-44.61-55.21-68.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 324.47
Beta 1.620
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.62
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.897
Total Debt 714.15
Total Equity 9,722.09
Total Capital 10,436.24
Debt Weighting 6.84
Equity Weighting 93.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 153.18199.68248.81282.50357.52442.48547.63677.77838.841,038.19
EBITDA 41.3648.3861.8278.34103.42117.47145.38179.93222.69275.61
EBIT 37.0542.9054.3070.3992.52104.68129.56160.35198.46245.62
Tax Rate 19.34%20.53%13.50%27.58%23.62%20.91%20.91%20.91%20.91%20.91%
EBIAT 29.8834.0946.9750.9870.6782.79102.47126.82156.95194.25
Depreciation 4.315.487.527.9410.9012.7815.8219.5824.2329.99
Accounts Receivable --0.080.91-2.06-2.47-2.74-2.90-3.59-4.44-5.50
Inventories --0.02-0.08-0.090.09-0.31-0.17-0.21-0.26-0.32
Accounts Payable -0.600.311.76-0.202.141.752.172.683.32
Capital Expenditure -3.98-22.49-6.05-28.02-23.94-29.12-36.04-44.61-55.21-68.33
UFCF 30.2217.6049.5830.5055.0765.5480.93100.16123.96153.41
WACC
PV UFCF 58.8865.3272.6280.7589.78
SUM PV UFCF 367.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 159.55
Terminal Value 2,182.65
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,277.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,644.71
Net Debt 529.65
Equity Value 1,115.06
Shares Outstanding 29.96
Equity Value Per Share 37.21