Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Wingstop Inc. (WING)
$339.55
-8.10 (-2.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 199.68 | 248.81 | 282.50 | 357.52 | 460.06 | 567.46 | 699.93 | 863.34 | 1,064.89 | 1,313.50 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 48.38 | 61.82 | 78.34 | 103.42 | 125.87 | 151.05 | 186.31 | 229.81 | 283.46 | 349.64 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 42.90 | 54.30 | 70.39 | 92.52 | 112.63 | 134.59 | 166.01 | 204.76 | 252.57 | 311.53 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 5.48 | 7.52 | 7.94 | 10.90 | 13.24 | 16.46 | 20.31 | 25.05 | 30.89 | 38.11 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 12.85 | 40.86 | 48.58 | 184.50 | 90.22 | 126.28 | 155.76 | 192.12 | 236.98 | 292.30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 5.84 | 4.93 | 6.99 | 9.46 | 12.41 | 14.44 | 17.81 | 21.97 | 27.10 | 33.43 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 0.32 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.81 | 1 | 1.23 | 1.52 | 1.87 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3.35 | 3.66 | 5.41 | 5.22 | 4.72 | 8.57 | 10.57 | 13.04 | 16.08 | 19.83 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -22.49 | -6.05 | -28.02 | -23.94 | -40.83 | -44.47 | -54.85 | -67.66 | -83.45 | -102.94 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 339.55 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.662 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 29.86 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.59 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.24% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.201 |
Total Debt | 714.71 |
Total Equity | 10,137.60 |
Total Capital | 10,852.31 |
Debt Weighting | 6.59 |
Equity Weighting | 93.41 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 199.68 | 248.81 | 282.50 | 357.52 | 460.06 | 567.46 | 699.93 | 863.34 | 1,064.89 | 1,313.50 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 48.38 | 61.82 | 78.34 | 103.42 | 125.87 | 151.05 | 186.31 | 229.81 | 283.46 | 349.64 |
EBIT | 42.90 | 54.30 | 70.39 | 92.52 | 112.63 | 134.59 | 166.01 | 204.76 | 252.57 | 311.53 |
Tax Rate | 20.53% | 13.50% | 27.58% | 23.62% | 25.59% | 22.16% | 22.16% | 22.16% | 22.16% | 22.16% |
EBIAT | 34.09 | 46.97 | 50.98 | 70.67 | 83.81 | 104.76 | 129.21 | 159.38 | 196.59 | 242.48 |
Depreciation | 5.48 | 7.52 | 7.94 | 10.90 | 13.24 | 16.46 | 20.31 | 25.05 | 30.89 | 38.11 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 0.91 | -2.06 | -2.47 | -2.95 | -2.03 | -3.37 | -4.16 | -5.13 | -6.33 |
Inventories | - | -0.08 | -0.09 | 0.09 | -0.15 | -0.27 | -0.19 | -0.23 | -0.29 | -0.35 |
Accounts Payable | - | 0.31 | 1.76 | -0.20 | -0.49 | 3.84 | 2 | 2.47 | 3.04 | 3.75 |
Capital Expenditure | -22.49 | -6.05 | -28.02 | -23.94 | -40.83 | -44.47 | -54.85 | -67.66 | -83.45 | -102.94 |
UFCF | 17.09 | 49.58 | 30.50 | 55.07 | 52.63 | 78.28 | 93.11 | 114.84 | 141.66 | 174.73 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 70.14 | 74.74 | 82.60 | 91.29 | 100.89 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 419.67 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.61 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 181.71 |
Terminal Value | 2,387.84 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,378.76 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,798.43 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 624.49 |
Equity Value | 1,173.94 |
Shares Outstanding | 29.86 |
Equity Value Per Share | 39.32 |