Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Wingstop Inc. (WING)

$339.55

-8.10 (-2.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 39.32 | 339.55 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 199.68248.81282.50357.52460.06567.46699.93863.341,064.891,313.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 48.3861.8278.34103.42125.87151.05186.31229.81283.46349.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 42.9054.3070.3992.52112.63134.59166.01204.76252.57311.53
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.487.527.9410.9013.2416.4620.3125.0530.8938.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 12.8540.8648.58184.5090.22126.28155.76192.12236.98292.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.844.936.999.4612.4114.4417.8121.9727.1033.43
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.320.400.480.390.530.8111.231.521.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.353.665.415.224.728.5710.5713.0416.0819.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -22.49-6.05-28.02-23.94-40.83-44.47-54.85-67.66-83.45-102.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 339.55
Beta 1.662
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.59
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.201
Total Debt 714.71
Total Equity 10,137.60
Total Capital 10,852.31
Debt Weighting 6.59
Equity Weighting 93.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 199.68248.81282.50357.52460.06567.46699.93863.341,064.891,313.50
EBITDA 48.3861.8278.34103.42125.87151.05186.31229.81283.46349.64
EBIT 42.9054.3070.3992.52112.63134.59166.01204.76252.57311.53
Tax Rate 20.53%13.50%27.58%23.62%25.59%22.16%22.16%22.16%22.16%22.16%
EBIAT 34.0946.9750.9870.6783.81104.76129.21159.38196.59242.48
Depreciation 5.487.527.9410.9013.2416.4620.3125.0530.8938.11
Accounts Receivable -0.91-2.06-2.47-2.95-2.03-3.37-4.16-5.13-6.33
Inventories --0.08-0.090.09-0.15-0.27-0.19-0.23-0.29-0.35
Accounts Payable -0.311.76-0.20-0.493.8422.473.043.75
Capital Expenditure -22.49-6.05-28.02-23.94-40.83-44.47-54.85-67.66-83.45-102.94
UFCF 17.0949.5830.5055.0752.6378.2893.11114.84141.66174.73
WACC
PV UFCF 70.1474.7482.6091.29100.89
SUM PV UFCF 419.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) 181.71
Terminal Value 2,387.84
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,378.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,798.43
Net Debt 624.49
Equity Value 1,173.94
Shares Outstanding 29.86
Equity Value Per Share 39.32