Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Winpak Ltd. (WPK.TO)

$43.92

+1.08 (+2.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 101.85 | 43.92 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 889.64873.84852.491,001.991,181.131,273.251,372.551,479.601,594.991,719.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 190.90202.09192.19187.16224.36266.88287.70310.14334.32360.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 149.25157.01145.90139.89174.97205.33221.35238.61257.22277.28
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 41.6545.0946.2947.2649.3961.5566.3571.5277.1083.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 344.32397.16495.35377.46398.67544.14586.58632.33681.65734.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 133.14143.11145.91187.21207.61215.74232.56250.70270.25291.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 132.32130.47135.63187.06288.12226.07243.70262.70283.19305.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 39.1534.9636.5363.7965.2962.5967.4772.7478.4184.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -71.60-58.17-51.50-48.54-49.46-75.83-81.74-88.12-94.99-102.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 43.92
Beta 0.098
Diluted Shares Outstanding 65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.153
Total Debt 12.53
Total Equity 2,854.80
Total Capital 2,867.33
Debt Weighting 0.44
Equity Weighting 99.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 889.64873.84852.491,001.991,181.131,273.251,372.551,479.601,594.991,719.39
EBITDA 190.90202.09192.19187.16224.36266.88287.70310.14334.32360.40
EBIT 149.25157.01145.90139.89174.97205.33221.35238.61257.22277.28
Tax Rate 28.12%28.17%28.02%26.70%26.28%27.46%27.46%27.46%27.46%27.46%
EBIAT 107.28112.78105.02102.55129148.96160.58173.10186.60201.15
Depreciation 41.6545.0946.2947.2649.3961.5566.3571.5277.1083.11
Accounts Receivable --9.96-2.80-41.29-20.41-8.13-16.83-18.14-19.55-21.08
Inventories -1.85-5.16-51.43-101.0662.05-17.63-19.01-20.49-22.09
Accounts Payable --4.191.5727.261.50-2.694.885.265.676.12
Capital Expenditure -71.61-58.17-51.50-48.54-49.46-75.83-81.74-88.12-94.99-102.40
UFCF 77.3387.4093.4135.818.95185.91115.60124.62134.34144.82
WACC
PV UFCF 178.50106.58110.31114.17118.17
SUM PV UFCF 627.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 147.71
Terminal Value 6,870.38
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,606.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,234.14
Net Debt -386.14
Equity Value 6,620.28
Shares Outstanding 65
Equity Value Per Share 101.85