Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Winpak Ltd. (WPK.TO)

$38.52

-0.50 (-1.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 72.84 | 38.52 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 889.64873.84852.491,001.991,181.131,273.251,372.551,479.601,594.991,719.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 198.86208.56196.26189.35231.75274.41295.81318.88343.75370.56
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 157.20163.47149.97142.08182.37212.86229.46247.36266.65287.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 41.6545.0946.2947.2649.3961.5566.3571.5277.1083.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 344.32397.16495.35377.46398.67544.14586.58632.33681.65734.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 133.14143.11145.91187.21207.61215.74232.56250.70270.25291.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 132.32130.47135.63187.06288.12226.07243.70262.70283.19305.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 39.1534.9636.5363.7965.2962.5967.4772.7478.4184.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -71.60-58.17-51.50-48.54-49.46-75.83-81.74-88.12-94.99-102.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.52
Beta 0.131
Diluted Shares Outstanding 65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.243
Total Debt 12.53
Total Equity 2,503.80
Total Capital 2,516.33
Debt Weighting 0.50
Equity Weighting 99.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 889.64873.84852.491,001.991,181.131,273.251,372.551,479.601,594.991,719.39
EBITDA 198.86208.56196.26189.35231.75274.41295.81318.88343.75370.56
EBIT 157.20163.47149.97142.08182.37212.86229.46247.36266.65287.44
Tax Rate 28.12%28.17%28.02%26.70%26.28%27.46%27.46%27.46%27.46%27.46%
EBIAT 113117.43107.94104.15134.45154.42166.46179.44193.44208.52
Depreciation 41.6545.0946.2947.2649.3961.5566.3571.5277.1083.11
Accounts Receivable --9.96-2.80-41.29-20.41-8.13-16.83-18.14-19.55-21.08
Inventories -1.85-5.16-51.43-101.0662.05-17.63-19.01-20.49-22.09
Accounts Payable --4.191.5727.261.50-2.694.885.265.676.12
Capital Expenditure -71.61-58.17-51.50-48.54-49.46-75.83-81.74-88.12-94.99-102.40
UFCF 83.0592.0496.3437.4214.40191.37121.49130.96141.18152.19
WACC
PV UFCF 181.84109.69112.36115.09117.89
SUM PV UFCF 636.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) 155.23
Terminal Value 4,791.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,711.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,348.22
Net Debt -386.14
Equity Value 4,734.36
Shares Outstanding 65
Equity Value Per Share 72.84