Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Winpak Ltd. (WPK.TO)
$43.92
+1.08 (+2.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 889.64 | 873.84 | 852.49 | 1,001.99 | 1,181.13 | 1,273.25 | 1,372.55 | 1,479.60 | 1,594.99 | 1,719.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 190.90 | 202.09 | 192.19 | 187.16 | 224.36 | 266.88 | 287.70 | 310.14 | 334.32 | 360.40 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 149.25 | 157.01 | 145.90 | 139.89 | 174.97 | 205.33 | 221.35 | 238.61 | 257.22 | 277.28 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 41.65 | 45.09 | 46.29 | 47.26 | 49.39 | 61.55 | 66.35 | 71.52 | 77.10 | 83.11 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 344.32 | 397.16 | 495.35 | 377.46 | 398.67 | 544.14 | 586.58 | 632.33 | 681.65 | 734.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 133.14 | 143.11 | 145.91 | 187.21 | 207.61 | 215.74 | 232.56 | 250.70 | 270.25 | 291.33 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 132.32 | 130.47 | 135.63 | 187.06 | 288.12 | 226.07 | 243.70 | 262.70 | 283.19 | 305.28 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 39.15 | 34.96 | 36.53 | 63.79 | 65.29 | 62.59 | 67.47 | 72.74 | 78.41 | 84.52 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -71.60 | -58.17 | -51.50 | -48.54 | -49.46 | -75.83 | -81.74 | -88.12 | -94.99 | -102.40 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 43.92 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.098 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 65 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.28 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.53% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 4.153 |
| Total Debt | 12.53 |
| Total Equity | 2,854.80 |
| Total Capital | 2,867.33 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.44 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.56 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 889.64 | 873.84 | 852.49 | 1,001.99 | 1,181.13 | 1,273.25 | 1,372.55 | 1,479.60 | 1,594.99 | 1,719.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 190.90 | 202.09 | 192.19 | 187.16 | 224.36 | 266.88 | 287.70 | 310.14 | 334.32 | 360.40 |
| EBIT | 149.25 | 157.01 | 145.90 | 139.89 | 174.97 | 205.33 | 221.35 | 238.61 | 257.22 | 277.28 |
| Tax Rate | 28.12% | 28.17% | 28.02% | 26.70% | 26.28% | 27.46% | 27.46% | 27.46% | 27.46% | 27.46% |
| EBIAT | 107.28 | 112.78 | 105.02 | 102.55 | 129 | 148.96 | 160.58 | 173.10 | 186.60 | 201.15 |
| Depreciation | 41.65 | 45.09 | 46.29 | 47.26 | 49.39 | 61.55 | 66.35 | 71.52 | 77.10 | 83.11 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -9.96 | -2.80 | -41.29 | -20.41 | -8.13 | -16.83 | -18.14 | -19.55 | -21.08 |
| Inventories | - | 1.85 | -5.16 | -51.43 | -101.06 | 62.05 | -17.63 | -19.01 | -20.49 | -22.09 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -4.19 | 1.57 | 27.26 | 1.50 | -2.69 | 4.88 | 5.26 | 5.67 | 6.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | -71.61 | -58.17 | -51.50 | -48.54 | -49.46 | -75.83 | -81.74 | -88.12 | -94.99 | -102.40 |
| UFCF | 77.33 | 87.40 | 93.41 | 35.81 | 8.95 | 185.91 | 115.60 | 124.62 | 134.34 | 144.82 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 178.50 | 106.58 | 110.31 | 114.17 | 118.17 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 627.73 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.15 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 147.71 |
| Terminal Value | 6,870.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,606.40 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 6,234.14 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -386.14 |
| Equity Value | 6,620.28 |
| Shares Outstanding | 65 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 101.85 |