Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aqua America, Inc. (WTRU)

$53.31

-1.82 (-3.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -188.82 | 53.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 809.52838.09889.691,462.701,878.142,359.392,963.943,723.404,677.465,875.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 481.72423.89493.38710.46927.661,243.421,562.031,962.272,465.073,096.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 344.99277.22336.91453.41629.71840.361,055.691,326.191,666.012,092.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 136.72146.67156.48257.06297.95403.06506.34636.08799.061,003.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4.203.631,868.921,262.921,396.201,753.962,203.382,767.963,477.204,368.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 98.60101.22107.62154.77220.38276.85347.78436.90548.85689.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 14.3615.8418.3821.6733.8642.5453.4467.1384.33105.94
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 59.1777.3374.92177.49174.15218.78274.84345.26433.73544.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -478.09-495.74-550.27-835.64-1,020.52-1,375.64-1,728.13-2,170.93-2,727.20-3,426
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 53.31
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 156.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 2.989
Total Debt 5,976.65
Total Equity 8,344.35
Total Capital 14,321
Debt Weighting 41.73
Equity Weighting 58.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 809.52838.09889.691,462.701,878.142,359.392,963.943,723.404,677.465,875.99
EBITDA 481.72423.89493.38710.46927.661,243.421,562.031,962.272,465.073,096.70
EBIT 344.99277.22336.91453.41629.71840.361,055.691,326.191,666.012,092.89
Tax Rate 6.59%-7.67%-6.15%-7.50%-2.28%-3.40%-3.40%-3.40%-3.40%-3.40%
EBIAT 322.26298.47357.64487.42644.05868.951,091.601,371.311,722.682,164.09
Depreciation 136.72146.67156.48257.06297.95403.06506.34636.08799.061,003.81
Accounts Receivable --2.63-6.40-47.15-65.60-56.47-70.94-89.11-111.95-140.63
Inventories --1.48-2.53-3.29-12.19-8.68-10.90-13.69-17.20-21.61
Accounts Payable -18.17-2.41102.57-3.3344.6256.0670.4288.47111.14
Capital Expenditure -478.09-495.74-550.27-835.64-1,020.52-1,375.64-1,728.13-2,170.93-2,727.20-3,426
UFCF -19.11-36.54-47.50-39.04-159.65-124.15-155.97-195.93-246.14-309.20
WACC
PV UFCF -120.32-146.47-178.32-217.08-264.28
SUM PV UFCF -926.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) -315.39
Terminal Value -26,503.21
Present Value of Terminal Value -22,652.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -23,578.67
Net Debt 5,976.65
Equity Value -29,555.32
Shares Outstanding 156.52
Equity Value Per Share -188.82