Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Aqua America, Inc. (WTRU)
$53.31
-1.82 (-3.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 809.52 | 838.09 | 889.69 | 1,462.70 | 1,878.14 | 2,359.39 | 2,963.94 | 3,723.40 | 4,677.46 | 5,875.99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 481.72 | 423.89 | 493.38 | 710.46 | 927.66 | 1,243.42 | 1,562.03 | 1,962.27 | 2,465.07 | 3,096.70 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 344.99 | 277.22 | 336.91 | 453.41 | 629.71 | 840.36 | 1,055.69 | 1,326.19 | 1,666.01 | 2,092.89 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 136.72 | 146.67 | 156.48 | 257.06 | 297.95 | 403.06 | 506.34 | 636.08 | 799.06 | 1,003.81 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 4.20 | 3.63 | 1,868.92 | 1,262.92 | 1,396.20 | 1,753.96 | 2,203.38 | 2,767.96 | 3,477.20 | 4,368.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 98.60 | 101.22 | 107.62 | 154.77 | 220.38 | 276.85 | 347.78 | 436.90 | 548.85 | 689.48 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 14.36 | 15.84 | 18.38 | 21.67 | 33.86 | 42.54 | 53.44 | 67.13 | 84.33 | 105.94 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 59.17 | 77.33 | 74.92 | 177.49 | 174.15 | 218.78 | 274.84 | 345.26 | 433.73 | 544.86 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -478.09 | -495.74 | -550.27 | -835.64 | -1,020.52 | -1,375.64 | -1,728.13 | -2,170.93 | -2,727.20 | -3,426 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 53.31 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.000 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 156.52 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -2.28 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.36% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 4.356 |
Total Debt | 5,976.65 |
Total Equity | 8,344.35 |
Total Capital | 14,321 |
Debt Weighting | 41.73 |
Equity Weighting | 58.27 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 809.52 | 838.09 | 889.69 | 1,462.70 | 1,878.14 | 2,359.39 | 2,963.94 | 3,723.40 | 4,677.46 | 5,875.99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 481.72 | 423.89 | 493.38 | 710.46 | 927.66 | 1,243.42 | 1,562.03 | 1,962.27 | 2,465.07 | 3,096.70 |
EBIT | 344.99 | 277.22 | 336.91 | 453.41 | 629.71 | 840.36 | 1,055.69 | 1,326.19 | 1,666.01 | 2,092.89 |
Tax Rate | 6.59% | -7.67% | -6.15% | -7.50% | -2.28% | -3.40% | -3.40% | -3.40% | -3.40% | -3.40% |
EBIAT | 322.26 | 298.47 | 357.64 | 487.42 | 644.05 | 868.95 | 1,091.60 | 1,371.31 | 1,722.68 | 2,164.09 |
Depreciation | 136.72 | 146.67 | 156.48 | 257.06 | 297.95 | 403.06 | 506.34 | 636.08 | 799.06 | 1,003.81 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -2.63 | -6.40 | -47.15 | -65.60 | -56.47 | -70.94 | -89.11 | -111.95 | -140.63 |
Inventories | - | -1.48 | -2.53 | -3.29 | -12.19 | -8.68 | -10.90 | -13.69 | -17.20 | -21.61 |
Accounts Payable | - | 18.17 | -2.41 | 102.57 | -3.33 | 44.62 | 56.06 | 70.42 | 88.47 | 111.14 |
Capital Expenditure | -478.09 | -495.74 | -550.27 | -835.64 | -1,020.52 | -1,375.64 | -1,728.13 | -2,170.93 | -2,727.20 | -3,426 |
UFCF | -19.11 | -36.54 | -47.50 | -39.04 | -159.65 | -124.15 | -155.97 | -195.93 | -246.14 | -309.20 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -118.97 | -143.21 | -172.39 | -207.51 | -249.79 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -891.86 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.36 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -315.39 |
Terminal Value | -13,363.91 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -10,796.01 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -11,687.87 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,976.65 |
Equity Value | -17,664.52 |
Shares Outstanding | 156.52 |
Equity Value Per Share | -112.85 |