Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)
$30.66
+0.15 (+0.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,476 | 6,554 | 7,532 | 10,201 | 10,184 | 11,147.87 | 12,202.97 | 13,357.92 | 14,622.19 | 16,006.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,670 | 755 | 1,716 | 4,074 | 3,331 | 2,882.53 | 3,155.35 | 3,453.99 | 3,780.89 | 4,138.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 766 | -451 | 959 | 3,497 | 2,851 | 1,747.38 | 1,912.77 | 2,093.80 | 2,291.97 | 2,508.89 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 904 | 1,206 | 757 | 577 | 480 | 1,135.14 | 1,242.58 | 1,360.18 | 1,488.92 | 1,629.84 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 334 | 139 | 495 | 1,879 | 1,581 | 1,050.23 | 1,149.63 | 1,258.44 | 1,377.54 | 1,507.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 474 | 407 | 532 | 607 | 399 | 657.32 | 719.53 | 787.63 | 862.18 | 943.78 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 389 | 416 | 443 | 520 | 550 | 622.73 | 681.67 | 746.18 | 816.81 | 894.11 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 222 | 246 | 204 | 281 | 247 | 325.77 | 356.60 | 390.36 | 427.30 | 467.74 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -427 | -384 | -706 | -590 | -763 | -762.96 | -835.17 | -914.21 | -1,000.74 | -1,095.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 30.66 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.537 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 742.95 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 18.44 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.36% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.826 |
| Total Debt | 5,053 |
| Total Equity | 22,778.94 |
| Total Capital | 27,831.94 |
| Debt Weighting | 18.16 |
| Equity Weighting | 81.84 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,476 | 6,554 | 7,532 | 10,201 | 10,184 | 11,147.87 | 12,202.97 | 13,357.92 | 14,622.19 | 16,006.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,670 | 755 | 1,716 | 4,074 | 3,331 | 2,882.53 | 3,155.35 | 3,453.99 | 3,780.89 | 4,138.73 |
| EBIT | 766 | -451 | 959 | 3,497 | 2,851 | 1,747.38 | 1,912.77 | 2,093.80 | 2,291.97 | 2,508.89 |
| Tax Rate | 7.31% | 64.32% | 18.84% | 21.38% | 18.44% | 26.06% | 26.06% | 26.06% | 26.06% | 26.06% |
| EBIAT | 710 | -160.92 | 778.33 | 2,749.30 | 2,325.33 | 1,292.06 | 1,414.34 | 1,548.20 | 1,694.73 | 1,855.13 |
| Depreciation | 904 | 1,206 | 757 | 577 | 480 | 1,135.14 | 1,242.58 | 1,360.18 | 1,488.92 | 1,629.84 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 67 | -125 | -75 | 208 | -258.32 | -62.21 | -68.10 | -74.55 | -81.60 |
| Inventories | - | -27 | -27 | -77 | -30 | -72.73 | -58.94 | -64.52 | -70.62 | -77.31 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 24 | -42 | 77 | -34 | 78.77 | 30.83 | 33.75 | 36.95 | 40.44 |
| Capital Expenditure | -427 | -384 | -706 | -590 | -763 | -762.96 | -835.17 | -914.21 | -1,000.74 | -1,095.45 |
| UFCF | 1,187 | 725.08 | 635.33 | 2,661.30 | 2,186.33 | 1,411.97 | 1,731.44 | 1,895.31 | 2,074.69 | 2,271.05 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,278.15 | 1,418.79 | 1,405.88 | 1,393.08 | 1,380.40 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 6,876.30 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.47 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,316.47 |
| Terminal Value | 27,349.17 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 16,623.50 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 23,499.79 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,472 |
| Equity Value | 20,027.79 |
| Shares Outstanding | 742.95 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 26.96 |