Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)

$67.44

+0.53 (+0.79%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -75.33 | 67.44 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	11,537	11,529	11,526	13,431	15,310	16,474.42	17,727.40	19,075.68	20,526.51	22,087.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,850	4,114	4,347	4,571	4,907	5,695.33	6,128.50	6,594.61	7,096.17	7,635.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,069	2,210	2,265	2,314	2,471	2,969.43	3,195.27	3,438.30	3,699.80	3,981.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,781	1,904	2,082	2,257	2,436	2,725.90	2,933.22	3,156.31	3,396.37	3,654.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	147	248	129	166	111	214.35	230.65	248.19	267.07	287.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,615	1,550	1,630	1,880	1,373	2,126.85	2,288.62	2,462.68	2,649.98	2,851.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	548	544	535	631	803	792.52	852.80	917.66	987.46	1,062.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,237	1,294	1,237	1,409	1,804	1,810.60	1,948.31	2,096.49	2,255.94	2,427.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,957	-4,225	-5,369	-4,244	-4,638	-5,911.65	-6,361.27	-6,845.09	-7,365.70	-7,925.91
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 67.44
Beta	0.421
Diluted Shares Outstanding	547
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-8.43
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.481
Total Debt	25,219
Total Equity	36,889.68
Total Capital	62,108.68
Debt Weighting	40.60
Equity Weighting	59.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	11,537	11,529	11,526	13,431	15,310	16,474.42	17,727.40	19,075.68	20,526.51	22,087.68
EBITDA	3,850	4,114	4,347	4,571	4,907	5,695.33	6,128.50	6,594.61	7,096.17	7,635.87
EBIT	2,069	2,210	2,265	2,314	2,471	2,969.43	3,195.27	3,438.30	3,699.80	3,981.19
Tax Rate	12.55%	8.53%	-0.41%	-4.58%	-8.43%	1.53%	1.53%	1.53%	1.53%	1.53%
EBIAT	1,809.30	2,021.41	2,274.26	2,420.08	2,679.36	2,923.94	3,146.32	3,385.62	3,643.12	3,920.20
Depreciation	1,781	1,904	2,082	2,257	2,436	2,725.90	2,933.22	3,156.31	3,396.37	3,654.68
Accounts Receivable	-	65	-80	-250	507	-753.85	-161.76	-174.06	-187.30	-201.55
Inventories	-	4	9	-96	-172	10.48	-60.28	-64.86	-69.79	-75.10
Accounts Payable	-	57	-57	172	395	6.60	137.71	148.18	159.45	171.58
Capital Expenditure	-3,957	-4,225	-5,369	-4,244	-4,638	-5,911.65	-6,361.27	-6,845.09	-7,365.70	-7,925.91
UFCF	-366.70	-173.59	-1,140.74	259.08	1,207.36	-998.59	-366.06	-393.90	-423.86	-456.09
WACC
PV UFCF						-953.86	-333.99	-343.30	-352.86	-362.68
SUM PV UFCF										-2,346.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.69
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-465.22
Terminal Value	-17,294.29
Present Value of Terminal Value	-13,752.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-16,099.03
Net Debt	25,108
Equity Value	-41,207.03
Shares Outstanding	547
Equity Value Per Share	-75.33