Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Exagen Inc. (XGN)

$2.625

-0.07 (-2.78%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -28.25 | 2.625 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26.8132.4440.3941.9748.3056.0965.1375.6487.84102
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -22.56-4.35-7.93-13.66-23.10-22.17-25.74-29.89-34.71-40.31
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -23.23-5.09-8.52-14.20-24.05-23.23-26.97-31.32-36.38-42.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.670.730.590.550.951.061.231.431.671.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 11.2413.1672.0857.4599.4467.7378.6591.33106.06123.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.605.955.718.919.658.529.9011.4913.3515.50
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.771.281.483.012.492.983.464.024.665.42
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.57-0.20-0.40-0.46-2.37-1.09-1.27-1.47-1.71-1.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.625
Beta 1.171
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15.97
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.66
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.055
Total Debt 28.07
Total Equity 41.93
Total Capital 69.99
Debt Weighting 40.10
Equity Weighting 59.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26.8132.4440.3941.9748.3056.0965.1375.6487.84102
EBITDA -22.56-4.35-7.93-13.66-23.10-22.17-25.74-29.89-34.71-40.31
EBIT -23.23-5.09-8.52-14.20-24.05-23.23-26.97-31.32-36.38-42.24
Tax Rate 2.10%-0.73%-0.21%0.47%-0.66%0.19%0.19%0.19%0.19%0.19%
EBIAT -22.74-5.12-8.54-14.13-24.21-23.18-26.92-31.26-36.31-42.16
Depreciation 0.670.730.590.550.951.061.231.431.671.93
Accounts Receivable --5.350.24-3.20-0.741.13-1.37-1.60-1.85-2.15
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --0.490.201.54-0.520.490.480.560.650.75
Capital Expenditure -0.57-0.20-0.40-0.46-2.37-1.09-1.27-1.47-1.71-1.98
UFCF -22.64-10.43-7.92-15.70-26.90-21.59-27.85-32.34-37.55-43.61
WACC
PV UFCF -19.78-23.37-24.85-26.44-28.12
SUM PV UFCF -122.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) -44.48
Terminal Value -620.39
Present Value of Terminal Value -400.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -522.64
Net Debt -71.38
Equity Value -451.26
Shares Outstanding 15.97
Equity Value Per Share -28.25