Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Xunlei Limited (XNET)

$1.66

-0.06 (-3.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -10.46 | 1.66 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 200.58230.60180.67186.37238.78253.46269.04285.58303.14321.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -29.79-32.30-35.761.891.16-23.90-25.37-26.93-28.59-30.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -39.83-39.13-48.42-12.29-8.22-37.34-39.64-42.07-44.66-47.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.056.8312.6614.189.3813.4414.2715.1416.0717.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 372.39319.47265.31255.07239.01358.90380.97404.39429.25455.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 51.7824.1437.0235.9941.7147.4350.3453.4456.7260.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.8812.675.541.731.366.086.456.857.277.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 49.8222.6324.2120.6426.4135.5837.7740.0942.5545.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.42-6.18-15.11-13.61-13.29-14.50-15.40-16.34-17.35-18.41
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.66
Beta 1.329
Diluted Shares Outstanding 67.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -21.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.072
Total Debt 20.19
Total Equity 112.03
Total Capital 132.22
Debt Weighting 15.27
Equity Weighting 84.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 200.58230.60180.67186.37238.78253.46269.04285.58303.14321.78
EBITDA -29.79-32.30-35.761.891.16-23.90-25.37-26.93-28.59-30.34
EBIT -39.83-39.13-48.42-12.29-8.22-37.34-39.64-42.07-44.66-47.41
Tax Rate 18.61%3.92%-9.09%-6.54%-21.16%-2.85%-2.85%-2.85%-2.85%-2.85%
EBIAT -32.42-37.59-52.82-13.09-9.96-38.41-40.77-43.27-45.93-48.76
Depreciation 10.056.8312.6614.189.3813.4414.2715.1416.0717.06
Accounts Receivable -27.64-12.881.03-5.72-5.71-2.92-3.09-3.29-3.49
Inventories --8.797.133.810.36-4.71-0.37-0.40-0.42-0.45
Accounts Payable --27.191.58-3.575.769.172.192.322.462.62
Capital Expenditure -9.42-6.18-15.11-13.61-13.29-14.50-15.40-16.34-17.35-18.41
UFCF -31.80-45.29-59.43-11.25-13.46-40.72-43-45.64-48.45-51.43
WACC
PV UFCF -37.79-37.03-36.47-35.93-35.39
SUM PV UFCF -182.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) -52.45
Terminal Value -910.66
Present Value of Terminal Value -626.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -809.33
Net Debt -103.17
Equity Value -706.16
Shares Outstanding 67.49
Equity Value Per Share -10.46