Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Xunlei Limited (XNET)
$1.66
-0.06 (-3.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 200.58 | 230.60 | 180.67 | 186.37 | 238.78 | 253.46 | 269.04 | 285.58 | 303.14 | 321.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -29.79 | -32.30 | -35.76 | 1.89 | 1.16 | -23.90 | -25.37 | -26.93 | -28.59 | -30.34 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -39.83 | -39.13 | -48.42 | -12.29 | -8.22 | -37.34 | -39.64 | -42.07 | -44.66 | -47.41 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 10.05 | 6.83 | 12.66 | 14.18 | 9.38 | 13.44 | 14.27 | 15.14 | 16.07 | 17.06 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 372.39 | 319.47 | 265.31 | 255.07 | 239.01 | 358.90 | 380.97 | 404.39 | 429.25 | 455.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 51.78 | 24.14 | 37.02 | 35.99 | 41.71 | 47.43 | 50.34 | 53.44 | 56.72 | 60.21 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 3.88 | 12.67 | 5.54 | 1.73 | 1.36 | 6.08 | 6.45 | 6.85 | 7.27 | 7.72 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 49.82 | 22.63 | 24.21 | 20.64 | 26.41 | 35.58 | 37.77 | 40.09 | 42.55 | 45.17 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -9.42 | -6.18 | -15.11 | -13.61 | -13.29 | -14.50 | -15.40 | -16.34 | -17.35 | -18.41 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.66 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.329 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 67.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -21.16 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.47% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.072 |
| Total Debt | 20.19 |
| Total Equity | 112.03 |
| Total Capital | 132.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 15.27 |
| Equity Weighting | 84.73 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 200.58 | 230.60 | 180.67 | 186.37 | 238.78 | 253.46 | 269.04 | 285.58 | 303.14 | 321.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -29.79 | -32.30 | -35.76 | 1.89 | 1.16 | -23.90 | -25.37 | -26.93 | -28.59 | -30.34 |
| EBIT | -39.83 | -39.13 | -48.42 | -12.29 | -8.22 | -37.34 | -39.64 | -42.07 | -44.66 | -47.41 |
| Tax Rate | 18.61% | 3.92% | -9.09% | -6.54% | -21.16% | -2.85% | -2.85% | -2.85% | -2.85% | -2.85% |
| EBIAT | -32.42 | -37.59 | -52.82 | -13.09 | -9.96 | -38.41 | -40.77 | -43.27 | -45.93 | -48.76 |
| Depreciation | 10.05 | 6.83 | 12.66 | 14.18 | 9.38 | 13.44 | 14.27 | 15.14 | 16.07 | 17.06 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 27.64 | -12.88 | 1.03 | -5.72 | -5.71 | -2.92 | -3.09 | -3.29 | -3.49 |
| Inventories | - | -8.79 | 7.13 | 3.81 | 0.36 | -4.71 | -0.37 | -0.40 | -0.42 | -0.45 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -27.19 | 1.58 | -3.57 | 5.76 | 9.17 | 2.19 | 2.32 | 2.46 | 2.62 |
| Capital Expenditure | -9.42 | -6.18 | -15.11 | -13.61 | -13.29 | -14.50 | -15.40 | -16.34 | -17.35 | -18.41 |
| UFCF | -31.80 | -45.29 | -59.43 | -11.25 | -13.46 | -40.72 | -43 | -45.64 | -48.45 | -51.43 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -37.79 | -37.03 | -36.47 | -35.93 | -35.39 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -182.61 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -52.45 |
| Terminal Value | -910.66 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -626.71 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -809.33 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -103.17 |
| Equity Value | -706.16 |
| Shares Outstanding | 67.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -10.46 |