Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

$87.55

+1.91 (+2.23%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 73.17 | 87.55 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	237,162	279,332	255,583	178,574	276,692	300,275.56	325,869.24	353,644.37	383,786.89	416,498.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	39,030	49,883	20,452	19,095	52,230	43,171.70	46,851.39	50,844.72	55,178.42	59,881.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	19,137	31,138	1,157.28	5,613.92	31,341.71	20,503.01	22,250.56	24,147.06	26,205.21	28,438.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	19,893	18,745	19,294.71	13,481.08	20,888.30	22,668.69	24,600.83	26,697.66	28,973.20	31,442.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	3,177	3,042	3,089	47,879	6,802	19,762.58	21,447.03	23,275.04	25,258.87	27,411.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	25,597	24,701	26,966	20,581	32,383	32,078.76	34,812.96	37,780.20	41,000.36	44,494.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	16,992	18,958	18,528	18,850	18,780	23,147.71	25,120.68	27,261.82	29,585.45	32,107.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	21,701	21,063	24,694	17,499	26,623	27,489.50	29,832.54	32,375.29	35,134.77	38,129.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-15,402	-19,574	-24,361	-17,282	-12,076	-22,265.72	-24,163.51	-26,223.06	-28,458.16	-30,883.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 87.55
Beta	1.041
Diluted Shares Outstanding	4,274.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.23
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.802
Total Debt	47,704
Total Equity	374,213.71
Total Capital	421,917.71
Debt Weighting	11.31
Equity Weighting	88.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	237,162	279,332	255,583	178,574	276,692	300,275.56	325,869.24	353,644.37	383,786.89	416,498.58
EBITDA	39,030	49,883	20,452	19,095	52,230	43,171.70	46,851.39	50,844.72	55,178.42	59,881.50
EBIT	19,137	31,138	1,157.28	5,613.92	31,341.71	20,503.01	22,250.56	24,147.06	26,205.21	28,438.79
Tax Rate	-5.55%	32.67%	28.50%	22.31%	26.23%	20.83%	20.83%	20.83%	20.83%	20.83%
EBIAT	20,198.69	20,964.56	827.46	4,361.61	23,119.45	16,231.58	17,615.06	19,116.46	20,745.83	22,514.08
Depreciation	19,893	18,745	19,294.71	13,481.08	20,888.30	22,668.69	24,600.83	26,697.66	28,973.20	31,442.71
Accounts Receivable	-	896	-2,265	6,385	-11,802	304.24	-2,734.20	-2,967.25	-3,220.16	-3,494.62
Inventories	-	-1,966	430	-322	70	-4,367.71	-1,972.97	-2,141.14	-2,323.63	-2,521.69
Accounts Payable	-	-638	3,631	-7,195	9,124	866.50	2,343.04	2,542.75	2,759.47	2,994.68
Capital Expenditure	-15,402	-19,574	-24,361	-17,282	-12,076	-22,265.72	-24,163.51	-26,223.06	-28,458.16	-30,883.76
UFCF	24,689.69	18,427.56	-2,442.83	-571.31	29,323.74	13,437.58	15,688.25	17,025.42	18,476.56	20,051.39
WACC
PV UFCF						12,547.94	13,679.70	13,862.80	14,048.36	14,236.39
SUM PV UFCF										68,375.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.09
Free cash flow (t + 1)	20,452.42
Terminal Value	401,815.73
Present Value of Terminal Value	285,287.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	353,662.42
Net Debt	40,902
Equity Value	312,760.42
Shares Outstanding	4,274.29
Equity Value Per Share	73.17