Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

$105.84

+1.32 (+1.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 130.65 | 105.84 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 259,497179,784278,981402,217334,697378,077.11427,079.73482,433.57544,961.84615,594.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 34,44317,01646,18791,12865,10261,551.5169,529.2178,540.8988,720.59100,219.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15,545-3,69325,58067,08844,46132,566.7336,787.7041,555.7646,941.8153,025.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 18,89820,70920,60724,04020,64128,984.7832,741.5036,985.1341,778.7847,193.73
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 3,0894,3646,80229,64031,56817,283.3219,523.4122,053.8424,912.2428,141.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 26,96620,58132,38341,74938,01541,728.0947,136.4753,245.8360,147.0367,942.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 18,52818,85018,78024,43525,12028,686.0632,404.0636,603.9641,348.2046,707.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 24,69417,49926,62363,19758,03746,764.1552,825.2559,671.9467,406.0276,142.53
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -24,361-17,282-12,076-18,407-21,919-26,052.78-29,429.49-33,243.85-37,552.58-42,419.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 105.84
Beta 0.960
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,052
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.690
Total Debt 41,573
Total Equity 428,863.68
Total Capital 470,436.68
Debt Weighting 8.84
Equity Weighting 91.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 259,497179,784278,981402,217334,697378,077.11427,079.73482,433.57544,961.84615,594.40
EBITDA 34,44317,01646,18791,12865,10261,551.5169,529.2178,540.8988,720.59100,219.67
EBIT 15,545-3,69325,58067,08844,46132,566.7336,787.7041,555.7646,941.8153,025.94
Tax Rate 28.50%22.31%26.23%28.31%31.78%27.43%27.43%27.43%27.43%27.43%
EBIAT 11,114.65-2,869.1918,869.2848,094.4230,332.5123,634.9526,698.2830,158.6534,067.5138,483
Depreciation 18,89820,70920,60724,04020,64128,984.7832,741.5036,985.1341,778.7847,193.73
Accounts Receivable -6,385-11,802-9,3663,734-3,713.09-5,408.38-6,109.36-6,901.20-7,795.66
Inventories --32270-5,655-685-3,566.06-3,718-4,199.89-4,744.24-5,359.14
Accounts Payable --7,1959,12436,574-5,160-11,272.856,061.116,846.697,734.098,736.50
Capital Expenditure -24,361-17,282-12,076-18,407-21,919-26,052.78-29,429.49-33,243.85-37,552.58-42,419.78
UFCF 5,651.64-574.1924,792.2875,280.4226,943.518,014.9526,945.0230,437.3634,382.3538,838.65
WACC
PV UFCF 7,409.5923,028.4524,048.4225,113.5626,225.88
SUM PV UFCF 105,825.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 39,615.43
Terminal Value 642,065.24
Present Value of Terminal Value 433,555.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 539,381.70
Net Debt 10,005
Equity Value 529,376.70
Shares Outstanding 4,052
Equity Value Per Share 130.65