Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

$87.55

+1.91 (+2.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 73.17 | 87.55 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 237,162279,332255,583178,574276,692300,275.56325,869.24353,644.37383,786.89416,498.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 39,03049,88320,45219,09552,23043,171.7046,851.3950,844.7255,178.4259,881.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 19,13731,1381,157.285,613.9231,341.7120,503.0122,250.5624,147.0626,205.2128,438.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 19,89318,74519,294.7113,481.0820,888.3022,668.6924,600.8326,697.6628,973.2031,442.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3,1773,0423,08947,8796,80219,762.5821,447.0323,275.0425,258.8727,411.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 25,59724,70126,96620,58132,38332,078.7634,812.9637,780.2041,000.3644,494.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 16,99218,95818,52818,85018,78023,147.7125,120.6827,261.8229,585.4532,107.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 21,70121,06324,69417,49926,62327,489.5029,832.5432,375.2935,134.7738,129.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -15,402-19,574-24,361-17,282-12,076-22,265.72-24,163.51-26,223.06-28,458.16-30,883.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 87.55
Beta 1.041
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,274.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.802
Total Debt 47,704
Total Equity 374,213.71
Total Capital 421,917.71
Debt Weighting 11.31
Equity Weighting 88.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 237,162279,332255,583178,574276,692300,275.56325,869.24353,644.37383,786.89416,498.58
EBITDA 39,03049,88320,45219,09552,23043,171.7046,851.3950,844.7255,178.4259,881.50
EBIT 19,13731,1381,157.285,613.9231,341.7120,503.0122,250.5624,147.0626,205.2128,438.79
Tax Rate -5.55%32.67%28.50%22.31%26.23%20.83%20.83%20.83%20.83%20.83%
EBIAT 20,198.6920,964.56827.464,361.6123,119.4516,231.5817,615.0619,116.4620,745.8322,514.08
Depreciation 19,89318,74519,294.7113,481.0820,888.3022,668.6924,600.8326,697.6628,973.2031,442.71
Accounts Receivable -896-2,2656,385-11,802304.24-2,734.20-2,967.25-3,220.16-3,494.62
Inventories --1,966430-32270-4,367.71-1,972.97-2,141.14-2,323.63-2,521.69
Accounts Payable --6383,631-7,1959,124866.502,343.042,542.752,759.472,994.68
Capital Expenditure -15,402-19,574-24,361-17,282-12,076-22,265.72-24,163.51-26,223.06-28,458.16-30,883.76
UFCF 24,689.6918,427.56-2,442.83-571.3129,323.7413,437.5815,688.2517,025.4218,476.5620,051.39
WACC
PV UFCF 12,547.9413,679.7013,862.8014,048.3614,236.39
SUM PV UFCF 68,375.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.09
Free cash flow (t + 1) 20,452.42
Terminal Value 401,815.73
Present Value of Terminal Value 285,287.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 353,662.42
Net Debt 40,902
Equity Value 312,760.42
Shares Outstanding 4,274.29
Equity Value Per Share 73.17