Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)

$64.45

+0.44 (+0.69%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 23.42 | 64.45 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	67.75	109.92	129.93	158.92	259.26	366.79	518.92	734.14	1,038.63	1,469.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	4.32	13.02	18.73	25.28	44.13	48.10	68.05	96.27	136.20	192.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2.55	11.64	17.03	23.05	39.74	42.04	59.47	84.14	119.03	168.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1.77	1.38	1.70	2.23	4.39	6.06	8.58	12.13	17.16	24.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	3.50	3.97	11.50	29.03	9.64	29.06	41.11	58.16	82.29	116.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	5.57	5.55	7.25	9.94	13.78	22.32	31.57	44.67	63.19	89.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	10.15	10.80	15.14	22.36	51.94	51.77	73.24	103.61	146.58	207.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	9.52	3.91	7.44	12.99	25.17	30.23	42.77	60.51	85.61	121.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2.21	-2.42	-2.24	-2.16	-7.69	-8.44	-11.94	-16.89	-23.90	-33.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 64.45
Beta	1.503
Diluted Shares Outstanding	27.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.96
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.933
Total Debt	38.26
Total Equity	1,779.64
Total Capital	1,817.90
Debt Weighting	2.10
Equity Weighting	97.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	67.75	109.92	129.93	158.92	259.26	366.79	518.92	734.14	1,038.63	1,469.40
EBITDA	4.32	13.02	18.73	25.28	44.13	48.10	68.05	96.27	136.20	192.68
EBIT	2.55	11.64	17.03	23.05	39.74	42.04	59.47	84.14	119.03	168.40
Tax Rate	45.13%	24.12%	17.54%	19.83%	19.96%	25.32%	25.32%	25.32%	25.32%	25.32%
EBIAT	1.40	8.83	14.04	18.48	31.81	31.39	44.42	62.84	88.90	125.77
Depreciation	1.77	1.38	1.70	2.23	4.39	6.06	8.58	12.13	17.16	24.28
Accounts Receivable	-	0.01	-1.69	-2.70	-3.83	-8.54	-9.26	-13.09	-18.53	-26.21
Inventories	-	-0.65	-4.34	-7.22	-29.57	0.17	-21.47	-30.37	-42.97	-60.80
Accounts Payable	-	-5.61	3.54	5.55	12.19	5.06	12.54	17.74	25.10	35.51
Capital Expenditure	-2.21	-2.42	-2.24	-2.16	-7.69	-8.44	-11.94	-16.89	-23.90	-33.81
UFCF	0.96	1.55	11	14.18	7.29	25.70	22.86	32.35	45.76	64.74
WACC
PV UFCF						23.42	18.98	24.48	31.55	40.68
SUM PV UFCF										139.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.74
Free cash flow (t + 1)	66.04
Terminal Value	853.18
Present Value of Terminal Value	536.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	675.17
Net Debt	28.61
Equity Value	646.56
Shares Outstanding	27.61
Equity Value Per Share	23.42