Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)

$64.45

+0.44 (+0.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 23.42 | 64.45 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 67.75109.92129.93158.92259.26366.79518.92734.141,038.631,469.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4.3213.0218.7325.2844.1348.1068.0596.27136.20192.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.5511.6417.0323.0539.7442.0459.4784.14119.03168.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.771.381.702.234.396.068.5812.1317.1624.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3.503.9711.5029.039.6429.0641.1158.1682.29116.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.575.557.259.9413.7822.3231.5744.6763.1989.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 10.1510.8015.1422.3651.9451.7773.24103.61146.58207.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9.523.917.4412.9925.1730.2342.7760.5185.61121.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.21-2.42-2.24-2.16-7.69-8.44-11.94-16.89-23.90-33.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.45
Beta 1.503
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.96
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.933
Total Debt 38.26
Total Equity 1,779.64
Total Capital 1,817.90
Debt Weighting 2.10
Equity Weighting 97.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 67.75109.92129.93158.92259.26366.79518.92734.141,038.631,469.40
EBITDA 4.3213.0218.7325.2844.1348.1068.0596.27136.20192.68
EBIT 2.5511.6417.0323.0539.7442.0459.4784.14119.03168.40
Tax Rate 45.13%24.12%17.54%19.83%19.96%25.32%25.32%25.32%25.32%25.32%
EBIAT 1.408.8314.0418.4831.8131.3944.4262.8488.90125.77
Depreciation 1.771.381.702.234.396.068.5812.1317.1624.28
Accounts Receivable -0.01-1.69-2.70-3.83-8.54-9.26-13.09-18.53-26.21
Inventories --0.65-4.34-7.22-29.570.17-21.47-30.37-42.97-60.80
Accounts Payable --5.613.545.5512.195.0612.5417.7425.1035.51
Capital Expenditure -2.21-2.42-2.24-2.16-7.69-8.44-11.94-16.89-23.90-33.81
UFCF 0.961.551114.187.2925.7022.8632.3545.7664.74
WACC
PV UFCF 23.4218.9824.4831.5540.68
SUM PV UFCF 139.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 66.04
Terminal Value 853.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 536.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 675.17
Net Debt 28.61
Equity Value 646.56
Shares Outstanding 27.61
Equity Value Per Share 23.42