Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MingZhu Logistics Holdings Limited (YGMZ)

$2.6987

+0.15 (+5.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2.47 | 2.6987 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 20.6227.6529.4118.7917.3617.2217.0816.9416.8016.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3.465.594.203.041.032.532.512.492.472.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.224.222.831.52-0.411.431.411.401.391.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.251.371.371.521.441.101.091.091.081.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.350.650.222.115.751.691.681.671.651.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.517.8913.2717.5328.3812.9712.8612.7612.6512.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.1700.130.080.070.070.070.070.070.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.710.851.571.421.341.101.091.081.071.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.10-0.11-0.92-0.16-0.20-0.21-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.20
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.6,987
Beta 0.895
Diluted Shares Outstanding 19.04
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.732
Total Debt 10.64
Total Equity 51.37
Total Capital 62.01
Debt Weighting 17.16
Equity Weighting 82.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 20.6227.6529.4118.7917.3617.2217.0816.9416.8016.66
EBITDA 3.465.594.203.041.032.532.512.492.472.45
EBIT 2.224.222.831.52-0.411.431.411.401.391.38
Tax Rate 35.73%26.06%33.33%31.90%-16.86%22.03%22.03%22.03%22.03%22.03%
EBIAT 1.423.121.891.04-0.481.111.101.091.081.08
Depreciation 1.251.371.371.521.441.101.091.091.081.07
Accounts Receivable -1.63-5.38-4.26-10.8515.410.110.100.100.10
Inventories -0.17-0.120.050.0100000
Accounts Payable --0.860.72-0.15-0.07-0.24-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01
Capital Expenditure -0.10-0.11-0.92-0.16-0.20-0.21-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.20
UFCF 2.575.32-2.44-1.97-10.1517.182.092.072.062.04
WACC
PV UFCF 16.051.821.691.571.45
SUM PV UFCF 22.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2.08
Terminal Value 41.27
Present Value of Terminal Value 29.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 51.95
Net Debt 4.89
Equity Value 47.06
Shares Outstanding 19.04
Equity Value Per Share 2.47