Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Yiren Digital Ltd. (YRD)

$1.07

+0.01 (+0.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -24.51 | 1.07 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 886.94899.321,378.69633.91716.47741.01766.40792.65819.80847.88
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 284.28192.05286.31-71.34180.77130.64135.11139.74144.53149.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 280.48185.74223.17-123.74158.37105.30108.90112.64116.49120.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.806.3163.1452.3922.3925.3426.2127.1128.0429
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 451.27457.79585.45423.27486.70413.41427.57442.22457.37473.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 285.70592.83798.93538.89649.90491.74508.58526544.02562.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.414.866.971.583.053.463.573.703.823.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.29-8.36-7.68-2.20-1.50-4.91-5.08-5.26-5.44-5.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.07
Beta 0.382
Diluted Shares Outstanding 85.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.15
After-tax Cost of Debt -5.73%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.607
Total Debt 176.11
Total Equity 91.27
Total Capital 267.38
Debt Weighting 65.87
Equity Weighting 34.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 886.94899.321,378.69633.91716.47741.01766.40792.65819.80847.88
EBITDA 284.28192.05286.31-71.34180.77130.64135.11139.74144.53149.48
EBIT 280.48185.74223.17-123.74158.37105.30108.90112.64116.49120.48
Tax Rate 21.75%16.74%17.28%10.42%14.15%16.07%16.07%16.07%16.07%16.07%
EBIAT 219.49154.66184.61-110.84135.9788.3891.4194.5497.78101.13
Depreciation 3.806.3163.1452.3922.3925.3426.2127.1128.0429
Accounts Receivable --307.13-206.09260.04-111.01158.16-16.84-17.42-18.02-18.64
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --0.562.12-5.391.470.410.120.120.130.13
Capital Expenditure -11.29-8.36-7.68-2.20-1.50-4.91-5.08-5.26-5.44-5.62
UFCF 211.99-155.0836.09194.0147.32267.3895.8199.09102.49106
WACC
PV UFCF 272.4599.48104.83110.48116.43
SUM PV UFCF 703.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -1.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 108.12
Terminal Value -2,800.96
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,076.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,372.98
Net Debt -282.21
Equity Value -2,090.76
Shares Outstanding 85.30
Equity Value Per Share -24.51