Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM)
$127.64
-0.91 (-0.71%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,688 | 5,597 | 5,652 | 6,584 | 6,842 | 7,180.53 | 7,535.80 | 7,908.66 | 8,299.96 | 8,710.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2,428 | 1,971 | 1,709 | 2,382 | 2,335 | 2,562.66 | 2,689.45 | 2,822.52 | 2,962.17 | 3,108.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2,291 | 1,859 | 1,563 | 2,218 | 2,189 | 2,395.81 | 2,514.35 | 2,638.76 | 2,769.32 | 2,906.34 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 137 | 112 | 146 | 164 | 146 | 166.84 | 175.10 | 183.76 | 192.85 | 202.39 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 292 | 605 | 730 | 486 | 367 | 597.48 | 627.04 | 658.07 | 690.63 | 724.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 597 | 623 | 569 | 646 | 648 | 732.08 | 768.30 | 806.31 | 846.21 | 888.08 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 202 | 173 | 215 | 227 | 1,251 | 462.11 | 484.98 | 508.97 | 534.15 | 560.58 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -234 | -196 | -160 | -230 | -279 | -258.75 | -271.56 | -284.99 | -299.09 | -313.89 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 127.64 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.984 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 302 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.28 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.142 |
| Total Debt | 11,851 |
| Total Equity | 38,547.28 |
| Total Capital | 50,398.28 |
| Debt Weighting | 23.51 |
| Equity Weighting | 76.49 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,688 | 5,597 | 5,652 | 6,584 | 6,842 | 7,180.53 | 7,535.80 | 7,908.66 | 8,299.96 | 8,710.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2,428 | 1,971 | 1,709 | 2,382 | 2,335 | 2,562.66 | 2,689.45 | 2,822.52 | 2,962.17 | 3,108.73 |
| EBIT | 2,291 | 1,859 | 1,563 | 2,218 | 2,189 | 2,395.81 | 2,514.35 | 2,638.76 | 2,769.32 | 2,906.34 |
| Tax Rate | 16.15% | 5.75% | 11.37% | 5.91% | 20.28% | 11.89% | 11.89% | 11.89% | 11.89% | 11.89% |
| EBIAT | 1,921 | 1,752.04 | 1,385.25 | 2,086.83 | 1,745.14 | 2,110.87 | 2,215.31 | 2,324.92 | 2,439.95 | 2,560.68 |
| Depreciation | 137 | 112 | 146 | 164 | 146 | 166.84 | 175.10 | 183.76 | 192.85 | 202.39 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -26 | 54 | -77 | -2 | -84.08 | -36.22 | -38.01 | -39.89 | -41.87 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -29 | 42 | 12 | 1,024 | -788.89 | 22.86 | 24 | 25.18 | 26.43 |
| Capital Expenditure | -234 | -196 | -160 | -230 | -279 | -258.75 | -271.56 | -284.99 | -299.09 | -313.89 |
| UFCF | 1,824 | 1,613.04 | 1,467.25 | 1,955.83 | 2,634.14 | 1,145.99 | 2,105.49 | 2,209.67 | 2,319 | 2,433.74 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,070.42 | 1,836.96 | 1,800.72 | 1,765.19 | 1,730.36 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 8,203.65 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.06 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,482.41 |
| Terminal Value | 49,059.53 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 34,880.86 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 43,084.51 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 11,484 |
| Equity Value | 31,600.51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 302 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 104.64 |