Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

JOYY Inc. (YY)

$30.97

+1.11 (+3.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 12,013.48 | 30.97 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,775.982,291.553,655.412,025.152,619.053,098.833,666.504,338.155,132.856,073.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 487.13423.81777.791,805.42-40.07959.531,135.301,343.271,589.341,880.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 450.50391.82608.621,590.22-223800.26946.861,120.311,325.541,568.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 36.6331.99169.18215.20182.93159.26188.44222.96263.80312.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,339.032,080.283,756.953,552.354,387.933,792.384,487.095,309.086,281.637,432.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 38.51276.74211.72212.57171.36229.78271.88321.68380.61450.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.050.060.100.060.070.080.100.120.140.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.6916.6617.8020.9318.0122.2726.3531.1836.8943.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -63.58-57.11-156.15-161.83-184.88-157.38-186.21-220.32-260.68-308.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.97
Beta 0.582
Diluted Shares Outstanding 80.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -3.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.637
Total Debt 940.85
Total Equity 2,477.91
Total Capital 3,418.76
Debt Weighting 27.52
Equity Weighting 72.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,775.982,291.553,655.412,025.152,619.053,098.833,666.504,338.155,132.856,073.13
EBITDA 487.13423.81777.791,805.42-40.07959.531,135.301,343.271,589.341,880.49
EBIT 450.50391.82608.621,590.22-223800.26946.861,120.311,325.541,568.36
Tax Rate 13.76%12.84%18.13%-8,118.82%-3.49%-1,615.51%-1,615.51%-1,615.51%-1,615.51%-1,615.51%
EBIAT 388.49341.50498.28130,697.31-230.7713,728.6116,243.5319,219.1422,739.8626,905.52
Depreciation 36.6331.99169.18215.20182.93159.26188.44222.96263.80312.13
Accounts Receivable --238.2365.02-0.8541.21-58.43-42.09-49.80-58.93-69.72
Inventories --0.01-0.040.04-0.02-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.03
Accounts Payable -4.961.143.13-2.924.264.084.835.716.76
Capital Expenditure -63.58-57.11-156.15-161.83-184.88-157.38-186.21-220.32-260.68-308.44
UFCF 361.5483.11577.44130,752.99-194.4413,676.3216,207.7319,176.7822,689.7426,846.22
WACC
PV UFCF 13,086.1314,839.0616,799.7319,019.4621,532.47
SUM PV UFCF 85,276.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) 27,383.15
Terminal Value 1,090,961.96
Present Value of Terminal Value 875,024.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 960,301.67
Net Debt -896.33
Equity Value 961,198
Shares Outstanding 80.01
Equity Value Per Share 12,013.48