Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

JOYY Inc. (YY)

$37.67

+0.29 (+0.78%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -14.02 | 37.67 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,291.55	3,655.41	2,025.15	2,619.05	2,411.52	2,630.49	2,869.34	3,129.88	3,414.08	3,724.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	486.02	245.66	-340.40	-20.79	158.71	88.96	97.03	105.84	115.46	125.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	454.03	76.48	-555.59	-203.72	-4.67	-71.03	-77.48	-84.51	-92.19	-100.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	31.99	169.18	215.20	182.93	163.38	159.99	174.51	190.36	207.64	226.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	2,080.28	3,756.95	3,552.35	4,387.93	3,937.63	3,681.59	4,015.88	4,380.53	4,778.29	5,212.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	276.74	126.43	143.60	171.36	119.72	179.57	195.88	213.67	233.07	254.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	31.59	94.03	97.62	297.31	351.11	182.47	199.03	217.11	236.82	258.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	16.66	17.80	20.93	18.01	56	27.66	30.17	32.91	35.90	39.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-57.11	-156.15	-161.83	-184.88	-69.22	-129.86	-141.65	-154.52	-168.55	-183.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 37.67
Beta	0.540
Diluted Shares Outstanding	73.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	5.45
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.686
Total Debt	907.58
Total Equity	2,774.11
Total Capital	3,681.69
Debt Weighting	24.65
Equity Weighting	75.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,291.55	3,655.41	2,025.15	2,619.05	2,411.52	2,630.49	2,869.34	3,129.88	3,414.08	3,724.08
EBITDA	486.02	245.66	-340.40	-20.79	158.71	88.96	97.03	105.84	115.46	125.94
EBIT	454.03	76.48	-555.59	-203.72	-4.67	-71.03	-77.48	-84.51	-92.19	-100.56
Tax Rate	12.84%	18.13%	163.39%	-33.18%	5.45%	33.33%	33.33%	33.33%	33.33%	33.33%
EBIAT	395.72	62.62	352.18	-271.31	-4.41	-47.36	-51.66	-56.35	-61.47	-67.05
Depreciation	31.99	169.18	215.20	182.93	163.38	159.99	174.51	190.36	207.64	226.50
Accounts Receivable	-	150.30	-17.16	-27.76	51.64	-59.85	-16.31	-17.79	-19.40	-21.16
Inventories	-	-62.45	-3.59	-199.68	-53.80	168.65	-16.57	-18.07	-19.71	-21.50
Accounts Payable	-	1.14	3.13	-2.92	37.99	-28.34	2.51	2.74	2.99	3.26
Capital Expenditure	-57.11	-156.15	-161.83	-184.88	-69.22	-129.86	-141.65	-154.52	-168.55	-183.85
UFCF	370.61	164.65	387.92	-503.62	125.57	63.22	-49.16	-53.63	-58.50	-63.81
WACC
PV UFCF						59.64	-43.75	-45.03	-46.33	-47.68
SUM PV UFCF										-123.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.00
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-65.08
Terminal Value	-1,627.07
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,215.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,338.99
Net Debt	-306.87
Equity Value	-1,032.13
Shares Outstanding	73.64
Equity Value Per Share	-14.02