Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)

$35.46

+1.32 (+3.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1,383.84 | 35.46 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,076.791,333.552,742.843,339.828,147.3814,160.8624,612.8342,779.2874,354.18129,234.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -46.33-10.31-97.22119.96-182.12-205.74-357.59-621.53-1,080.27-1,877.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -156.49-109.71-207.83-14.41-334.60-987.72-1,716.74-2,983.84-5,186.18-9,014.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 110.1699.39110.61134.37152.48781.981,359.142,362.314,105.917,136.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 762.541,554.932,422.253,921.243,125.4212,220.7521,240.7536,918.3164,167.29111,528.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 54.4066.0867.0169.94154.94465.77809.551,407.082,445.634,250.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -162.83836.63491.293,912.663,733.026,488.3211,277.2819,600.9134,068.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.597.478.3418.9717.235697.33169.16294.01511.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -78.64-78.53-86.64-108.52-104.40-591.39-1,027.88-1,786.55-3,105.18-5,397.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 35.46
Beta 1.480
Diluted Shares Outstanding 223.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.113
Total Debt 5,011
Total Equity 7,937.65
Total Capital 12,948.65
Debt Weighting 38.70
Equity Weighting 61.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,076.791,333.552,742.843,339.828,147.3814,160.8624,612.8342,779.2874,354.18129,234.15
EBITDA -46.33-10.31-97.22119.96-182.12-205.74-357.59-621.53-1,080.27-1,877.61
EBIT -156.49-109.71-207.83-14.41-334.60-987.72-1,716.74-2,983.84-5,186.18-9,014.04
Tax Rate 48.69%20.60%1.38%4.43%-0.24%14.97%14.97%14.97%14.97%14.97%
EBIAT -80.30-87.10-204.97-13.77-335.41-839.84-1,459.71-2,537.10-4,409.71-7,664.47
Depreciation 110.1699.39110.61134.37152.48781.981,359.142,362.314,105.917,136.43
Accounts Receivable --11.69-0.92-2.93-85-310.84-343.78-597.52-1,038.55-1,805.09
Inventories ---673.80345.33-3,421.37179.64-2,755.30-4,788.96-8,323.63-14,467.21
Accounts Payable -3.880.8710.63-1.7438.7741.3371.83124.85217.01
Capital Expenditure -78.64-78.53-86.64-108.52-104.40-591.39-1,027.88-1,786.55-3,105.18-5,397.08
UFCF -48.78-74.05-854.84365.11-3,795.43-741.68-4,186.20-7,275.99-12,646.31-21,980.40
WACC
PV UFCF -688.78-3,610.35-5,827.56-9,406.40-15,183.10
SUM PV UFCF -34,716.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) -22,420.01
Terminal Value -394,718.50
Present Value of Terminal Value -272,654.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -307,370.43
Net Debt 2,399.50
Equity Value -309,769.93
Shares Outstanding 223.85
Equity Value Per Share -1,383.84