Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)

$35.46

+1.32 (+3.87%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1,383.84 | 35.46 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,076.79	1,333.55	2,742.84	3,339.82	8,147.38	14,160.86	24,612.83	42,779.28	74,354.18	129,234.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-46.33	-10.31	-97.22	119.96	-182.12	-205.74	-357.59	-621.53	-1,080.27	-1,877.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-156.49	-109.71	-207.83	-14.41	-334.60	-987.72	-1,716.74	-2,983.84	-5,186.18	-9,014.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	110.16	99.39	110.61	134.37	152.48	781.98	1,359.14	2,362.31	4,105.91	7,136.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	762.54	1,554.93	2,422.25	3,921.24	3,125.42	12,220.75	21,240.75	36,918.31	64,167.29	111,528.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	54.40	66.08	67.01	69.94	154.94	465.77	809.55	1,407.08	2,445.63	4,250.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	162.83	836.63	491.29	3,912.66	3,733.02	6,488.32	11,277.28	19,600.91	34,068.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3.59	7.47	8.34	18.97	17.23	56	97.33	169.16	294.01	511.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-78.64	-78.53	-86.64	-108.52	-104.40	-591.39	-1,027.88	-1,786.55	-3,105.18	-5,397.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 35.46
Beta	1.480
Diluted Shares Outstanding	223.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-0.24
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.113
Total Debt	5,011
Total Equity	7,937.65
Total Capital	12,948.65
Debt Weighting	38.70
Equity Weighting	61.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,076.79	1,333.55	2,742.84	3,339.82	8,147.38	14,160.86	24,612.83	42,779.28	74,354.18	129,234.15
EBITDA	-46.33	-10.31	-97.22	119.96	-182.12	-205.74	-357.59	-621.53	-1,080.27	-1,877.61
EBIT	-156.49	-109.71	-207.83	-14.41	-334.60	-987.72	-1,716.74	-2,983.84	-5,186.18	-9,014.04
Tax Rate	48.69%	20.60%	1.38%	4.43%	-0.24%	14.97%	14.97%	14.97%	14.97%	14.97%
EBIAT	-80.30	-87.10	-204.97	-13.77	-335.41	-839.84	-1,459.71	-2,537.10	-4,409.71	-7,664.47
Depreciation	110.16	99.39	110.61	134.37	152.48	781.98	1,359.14	2,362.31	4,105.91	7,136.43
Accounts Receivable	-	-11.69	-0.92	-2.93	-85	-310.84	-343.78	-597.52	-1,038.55	-1,805.09
Inventories	-	-	-673.80	345.33	-3,421.37	179.64	-2,755.30	-4,788.96	-8,323.63	-14,467.21
Accounts Payable	-	3.88	0.87	10.63	-1.74	38.77	41.33	71.83	124.85	217.01
Capital Expenditure	-78.64	-78.53	-86.64	-108.52	-104.40	-591.39	-1,027.88	-1,786.55	-3,105.18	-5,397.08
UFCF	-48.78	-74.05	-854.84	365.11	-3,795.43	-741.68	-4,186.20	-7,275.99	-12,646.31	-21,980.40
WACC
PV UFCF						-688.78	-3,610.35	-5,827.56	-9,406.40	-15,183.10
SUM PV UFCF										-34,716.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.68
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-22,420.01
Terminal Value	-394,718.50
Present Value of Terminal Value	-272,654.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-307,370.43
Net Debt	2,399.50
Equity Value	-309,769.93
Shares Outstanding	223.85
Equity Value Per Share	-1,383.84