Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc. (ZZZ.TO)
$22.87
+0.39 (+1.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 622.98 | 712.37 | 757.70 | 920.19 | 928.66 | 1,028.67 | 1,139.45 | 1,262.16 | 1,398.09 | 1,548.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 101.37 | 152.57 | 165.91 | 197.75 | 223.72 | 216.36 | 239.66 | 265.47 | 294.06 | 325.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 86.55 | 98.12 | 109.03 | 137.03 | 158.08 | 152.18 | 168.57 | 186.72 | 206.83 | 229.11 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 14.82 | 54.45 | 56.87 | 60.73 | 65.63 | 64.18 | 71.09 | 78.75 | 87.23 | 96.62 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 29.99 | 44.04 | 38.32 | 36.55 | 78.32 | 58.55 | 64.85 | 71.84 | 79.57 | 88.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 13.12 | 20.90 | 9.67 | 16.68 | 14.30 | 19.89 | 22.03 | 24.41 | 27.03 | 29.95 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 54.73 | 65.36 | 68.72 | 91.54 | 98.69 | 97.94 | 108.49 | 120.17 | 133.11 | 147.45 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 28.53 | 44.30 | 51.41 | 62.21 | 56.11 | 62.52 | 69.25 | 76.71 | 84.97 | 94.12 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -27.17 | -35.45 | -17.66 | -24.12 | -17.22 | -33.22 | -36.79 | -40.75 | -45.14 | -50.01 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 22.87 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.516 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 36.65 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.36 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.83% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.755 |
| Total Debt | 412.86 |
| Total Equity | 838.14 |
| Total Capital | 1,251 |
| Debt Weighting | 33.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 67.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 622.98 | 712.37 | 757.70 | 920.19 | 928.66 | 1,028.67 | 1,139.45 | 1,262.16 | 1,398.09 | 1,548.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 101.37 | 152.57 | 165.91 | 197.75 | 223.72 | 216.36 | 239.66 | 265.47 | 294.06 | 325.73 |
| EBIT | 86.55 | 98.12 | 109.03 | 137.03 | 158.08 | 152.18 | 168.57 | 186.72 | 206.83 | 229.11 |
| Tax Rate | 27.46% | 28.07% | 24.64% | 27.28% | 24.36% | 26.36% | 26.36% | 26.36% | 26.36% | 26.36% |
| EBIAT | 62.78 | 70.58 | 82.17 | 99.64 | 119.58 | 112.06 | 124.13 | 137.50 | 152.31 | 168.71 |
| Depreciation | 14.82 | 54.45 | 56.87 | 60.73 | 65.63 | 64.18 | 71.09 | 78.75 | 87.23 | 96.62 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -7.78 | 11.23 | -7.01 | 2.38 | -5.59 | -2.14 | -2.37 | -2.63 | -2.91 |
| Inventories | - | -10.63 | -3.36 | -22.82 | -7.15 | 0.75 | -10.55 | -11.68 | -12.94 | -14.34 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 15.77 | 7.11 | 10.80 | -6.10 | 6.41 | 6.73 | 7.46 | 8.26 | 9.15 |
| Capital Expenditure | -27.17 | -35.45 | -17.66 | -24.12 | -17.22 | -33.22 | -36.79 | -40.75 | -45.14 | -50.01 |
| UFCF | 50.43 | 86.93 | 136.37 | 117.21 | 157.11 | 144.60 | 152.47 | 168.89 | 187.08 | 207.23 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 132.89 | 128.78 | 131.10 | 133.46 | 135.87 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 662.10 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.81 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 211.38 |
| Terminal Value | 3,103.91 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,035 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,697.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 334.55 |
| Equity Value | 2,362.56 |
| Shares Outstanding | 36.65 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 64.47 |