Bank of America: S&P 500's Strong Start Sets Stage for Bullish Year End

Analysts at Bank of America Securities shared insights in a recent note, highlighting how the S&P 500's robust performance in the first 100 days of 2024 suggests a bullish outlook for the remainder of the year.

Key Points:

1. Strong Performance in First 100 Days: Bank of America's research indicates that when the S&P 500 rises by 10% or more in the first 100 days of the year, it tends to signal a strong performance for the rest of the year. This historical trend suggests optimism, with the index up 76% of the time and averaging a return of 7.1% (median return of 9.3%).

2. Projection for Year End: Based on the S&P 500's performance, Bank of America predicts a range of SPX 5640 to 5750 by the end of 2024. Historical data dating back to 1928 supports this projection, with average and median rest-of-year returns pointing to a range of SPX 5530 to 5650.

3. Impact of Presidential Election Year: The S&P 500's performance in the first 100 days of a Presidential election year is particularly significant. When the index trades higher during this period, the rest of the year tends to be strong, with an average return of 10.1%. Historical data shows the index up 93% of the time during such years, with median returns of 8.9%.

4. Summer Rally Anticipation: Bank of America notes that the summer months, particularly June to August, historically witness strong market performance. This period is the second strongest three-month period of the year, with the S&P 500 up 65% of the time, averaging a return of 3.2%.

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