Oil Prices Inch Up on Summer Demand Hopes

Oil prices saw a modest uptick on Monday, driven by optimism surrounding rising fuel demand during the summer months. However, gains were tempered by a strengthening dollar, fueled by reduced expectations of imminent cuts to U.S. interest rates.

Summer Demand Outlook

Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate Brent crude to climb to $86 a barrel in the third quarter, projecting a robust summer transport demand that will lead the oil market into a deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).

Current Oil Prices

Brent crude futures rose by 0.4% to $79.90 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.5% to $75.89 a barrel.

Analyst Insights

UBS analysts expressed optimism, stating that current market positioning appears overly pessimistic. They anticipate larger oil inventory declines in the coming weeks.

Energy consultancy FGE also expects a rally in oil prices, forecasting prices to reach the mid-$80s in the third quarter. However, they emphasized the need for a convincing signal of tightening from preliminary inventory data.

OPEC+ Production Cuts

Despite production cuts by OPEC+ members, oil inventories have increased, contributing to concerns in the market. The plan to unwind some of these production cuts from October further added to worries about rising supply.

Impact of the Strong Dollar

A strengthening dollar exerted pressure on oil prices, as the currency rallied following Friday's U.S. jobs data, leading investors to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts.

Conclusion

While hopes of rising summer fuel demand provided some support to oil prices, gains were limited by a stronger dollar and concerns about increased oil supply. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, emphasizing the need for convincing signs of tightening in the market to sustain a rally in oil prices.

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