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Tesla Deliveries: RBC Forecasts Shortfall, Citing Registration Data
Jun 26, 2024 6:47 AM - Parth Sanghvi
Image credit: Bram Van Oost
RBC Capital analysts have revised their estimates for Tesla's (TSLA) second-quarter (Q2) deliveries, predicting the electric vehicle (EV) giant will fall short of consensus expectations.
RBC's Revised Delivery Numbers:
- RBC anticipates Tesla to deliver approximately 410,000 vehicles in Q2 2024.
- This figure represents a significant decline from their previous estimate of 533,000 and falls roughly 4.3% below the current consensus forecast.
Methodology and Insights:
- RBC relies on two primary methods to estimate deliveries: registration data and app downloads.
- Registration data, particularly from Europe (ACEA) and China (CPCA), is considered more reliable and suggests deliveries around 411,000 units.
- App download data, though less accurate historically, points to a potentially stronger finish for the quarter in the US and Europe.
Geographic Breakdown:
- RBC's estimates suggest a -2.5% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) change in deliveries for the US market.
- China is expected to see a significant increase of +26.7% q/q, while Europe might experience a -19.4% q/q decline.
Is this a Cause for Concern?
This revised forecast could raise concerns among investors who have been optimistic about Tesla's growth trajectory. However, it's crucial to consider various factors before drawing conclusions.
Looking Forward:
Tesla's official delivery figures for Q2 will be released soon, providing a clearer picture of the company's performance. Stay tuned for further updates!
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