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UBS Analysts Recommend Portfolio Hedges Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
May 20, 2024 6:50 AM - Parth Sanghvi
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UBS Analysts Recommend Portfolio Hedges Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
In light of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, UBS analysts have advised investors to consider portfolio hedges. While traditionally, gold has served as a reliable safe-haven asset, analysts caution about potential short-term headwinds that could impact its performance.
Gold's Near-Term and Long-Term Prospects
Despite the current challenges, UBS maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold. The analysts noted that if market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts diminish, gold prices could face downward pressure. Spot gold prices ended the week at $2,413.93 per ounce.
However, UBS is optimistic about gold's future, forecasting prices to reach $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2024. This positive outlook is bolstered by strong central bank and investor demand. Additionally, gold's role as a geopolitical hedge has significantly contributed to its price rise this year, offering diversification and reducing overall portfolio volatility.
Oil as a Hedge Against Geopolitical Risks
UBS also emphasizes the importance of oil as a hedge against specific geopolitical risks. With the potential for escalating conflicts in the Middle East, oil prices are expected to remain elevated. UBS projects Brent crude to trade at $91 per barrel in the coming months, driven by robust demand and efforts by OPEC+ countries to maintain market balance.
Conclusion
In an environment of macroeconomic uncertainty, UBS advises investors to consider hedging their portfolios with assets like gold and oil. While short-term headwinds may impact gold prices, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand and its role as a geopolitical hedge. Similarly, oil prices are expected to stay high due to geopolitical tensions and market dynamics.
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