Agilon Health Faces Downgrade Following Q3 Miss

JMP Securities analysts shifted their outlook on agilon health (NYSE:AGL), downgrading the company’s rating from Market Outperform to Market Perform. This adjustment followed agilon’s release of its third-quarter financial results for 2024, which revealed performance below expectations.

Agilon health reported quarterly revenue of $1.45 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, though slightly under the $1.47 billion forecast. The company also disclosed an adjusted EBITDA of negative $96 million, which missed the analyst’s expectation of negative $19.1 million. This shortfall stemmed from multiple challenges, including rising cost trends, adverse developments from the prior year—largely influenced by Part D—and a lower-than-anticipated effect from risk adjustments.

The company’s third- and fourth-quarter expenses marked a downturn from what had appeared to be promising improvements in the first half of 2024. Medical margins for the year were now anticipated to decline roughly 44%, bringing them to an estimated $225 million at the midpoint of the revised range. Additionally, agilon reported $60 million in unfavorable adjustments tied to claims from 2023, with a further $25 million in elevated medical expenses in the third quarter due to sustained high costs throughout the year.