Jefferies Raises Price Target for Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) Amid Strong Refining Market Outlook

• Jefferies has increased its price target for Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) to $335, signaling an 18.07% potential upside.
• Limited U.S. refining capacity and global disruptions, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian facilities, are driving refining margins and crack spreads significantly above historical averages.
• Marathon Petroleum is well-positioned to generate substantial excess cash flow, estimated at $70 per share by Q3 2027, potentially enabling significant share buybacks.

On July 12, 2026, Jefferies, a prominent financial services firm, raised its price target on Marathon Petroleum to $335 from $296. Marathon Petroleum is a leading American company in the oil refining industry, transforming crude oil into essential products like gasoline and diesel. It operates in a competitive energy market alongside other major refiners such as Valero (NYSE: VLO).

The new price target, which suggests an 18.07% potential increase from its current price of $283.74, comes amid rising global tensions. A fracturing US-Iran ceasefire is causing instability in the energy market analysis, leading to a re-evaluation of energy stocks. As a result, Brent crude oil prices are climbing above $80 per barrel, influencing the broader investment outlook for the sector.

A key factor supporting refiners is not the supply of crude oil, but rather the limited U.S. refining capacity, as highlighted by a CNBC interview with analyst Paul Sankey. This creates a significant bottleneck that directly benefits refiners. Refining margins, which represent the profit from turning crude into fuel, have spiked to $60 per barrel, well above the historical average of $15.

Further supporting this positive market trend are major refining disruptions in Russia. Ukrainian strikes have reportedly taken up to a third of Russian refining capacity offline. This event helps keep crack spreads, a crucial measure of refining profit margins, elevated at over $45, a level expected to last for at least 15 months.

This strong refining environment positions Marathon Petroleum to generate significant cash flow. The company is expected to produce around $70 per share in excess cash flow by the third quarter of 2027. This robust financial strength may allow Marathon Petroleum to buy back and retire at least 10% of its shares within the next year, enhancing shareholder value.