Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Triumph Group, Inc. (TGI)
$11.98
+0.65 (+5.74%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,198.95 | 3,364.93 | 2,900.12 | 1,869.72 | 1,459.94 | 1,218.79 | 1,017.48 | 849.41 | 709.11 | 591.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -288.89 | -174.42 | 96.67 | -173.12 | -137.02 | -71.97 | -60.08 | -50.16 | -41.87 | -34.96 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -42.05 | -47.10 | -39.83 | -25.18 | -19.66 | -16.53 | -13.80 | -11.52 | -9.62 | -8.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -330.94 | -221.52 | 56.83 | -198.30 | -156.68 | -88.50 | -73.88 | -61.68 | -51.49 | -42.99 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.98 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.607 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 64.54 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -13.01 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 16.042 |
| Total Debt | 1,608.73 |
| Total Equity | 773.17 |
| Total Capital | 2,381.89 |
| Debt Weighting | 67.54 |
| Equity Weighting | 32.46 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,198.95 | 3,364.93 | 2,900.12 | 1,869.72 | 1,459.94 | 1,218.79 | 1,017.48 | 849.41 | 709.11 | 591.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -288.89 | -174.42 | 96.67 | -173.12 | -137.02 | -71.97 | -60.08 | -50.16 | -41.87 | -34.96 |
| Capital Expenditure | -42.05 | -47.10 | -39.83 | -25.18 | -19.66 | -16.53 | -13.80 | -11.52 | -9.62 | -8.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | -330.94 | -221.52 | 56.83 | -198.30 | -156.68 | -88.50 | -73.88 | -61.68 | -51.49 | -42.99 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -79.79 | -60.06 | -45.21 | -34.03 | -25.61 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -244.71 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.91 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -43.84 |
| Terminal Value | -492.09 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -293.22 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -537.92 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,367.85 |
| Equity Value | -1,905.77 |
| Shares Outstanding | 64.54 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -29.53 |