Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
$130.96
-4.33 (-3.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 232,887 | 280,522 | 386,064 | 469,822 | 513,983 | 628,565.80 | 768,692.66 | 940,058.17 | 1,149,626.37 | 1,405,913.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 28,019 | 37,365 | 51,076 | 74,256 | 38,352 | 77,750.77 | 95,083.84 | 116,280.98 | 142,203.63 | 173,905.24 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 12,678 | 15,576 | 25,825 | 39,960 | -3,569 | 32,052.61 | 39,198.13 | 47,936.61 | 58,623.17 | 71,692.10 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 15,341 | 21,789 | 25,251 | 34,296 | 41,921 | 45,698.17 | 55,885.71 | 68,344.37 | 83,580.46 | 102,213.14 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 41,250 | 55,021 | 84,396 | 96,049 | 70,026 | 117,233.50 | 143,368.49 | 175,329.79 | 214,416.25 | 262,216.30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 16,677 | 20,816 | 24,542 | 32,891 | 42,360 | 45,483.86 | 55,623.62 | 68,023.86 | 83,188.49 | 101,733.80 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 17,174 | 20,497 | 23,795 | 32,640 | 34,405 | 43,353.09 | 53,017.85 | 64,837.17 | 79,291.40 | 96,967.92 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 38,192 | 47,183 | 72,539 | 78,664 | 79,600 | 105,899.14 | 129,507.36 | 158,378.57 | 193,686.08 | 236,864.74 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -13,427 | -16,861 | -40,140 | -61,053 | -63,645 | -59,777.75 | -73,104.06 | -89,401.23 | -109,331.55 | -133,704.95 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 130.96 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.236 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10,189 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 54.14 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.77% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.311 |
Total Debt | 140,118 |
Total Equity | 1,334,351.44 |
Total Capital | 1,474,469.44 |
Debt Weighting | 9.50 |
Equity Weighting | 90.50 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 232,887 | 280,522 | 386,064 | 469,822 | 513,983 | 628,565.80 | 768,692.66 | 940,058.17 | 1,149,626.37 | 1,405,913.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 28,019 | 37,365 | 51,076 | 74,256 | 38,352 | 77,750.77 | 95,083.84 | 116,280.98 | 142,203.63 | 173,905.24 |
EBIT | 12,678 | 15,576 | 25,825 | 39,960 | -3,569 | 32,052.61 | 39,198.13 | 47,936.61 | 58,623.17 | 71,692.10 |
Tax Rate | 10.55% | 17.09% | 11.78% | 12.55% | 54.14% | 21.22% | 21.22% | 21.22% | 21.22% | 21.22% |
EBIAT | 11,340.51 | 12,914.62 | 22,784.07 | 34,946.02 | -1,636.59 | 25,250.85 | 30,880.05 | 37,764.18 | 46,182.98 | 56,478.61 |
Depreciation | 15,341 | 21,789 | 25,251 | 34,296 | 41,921 | 45,698.17 | 55,885.71 | 68,344.37 | 83,580.46 | 102,213.14 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -4,139 | -3,726 | -8,349 | -9,469 | -3,123.86 | -10,139.77 | -12,400.24 | -15,164.63 | -18,545.30 |
Inventories | - | -3,323 | -3,298 | -8,845 | -1,765 | -8,948.10 | -9,664.75 | -11,819.33 | -14,454.22 | -17,676.52 |
Accounts Payable | - | 8,991 | 25,356 | 6,125 | 936 | 26,299.15 | 23,608.21 | 28,871.22 | 35,307.51 | 43,178.65 |
Capital Expenditure | -13,427 | -16,861 | -40,140 | -61,053 | -63,645 | -59,777.75 | -73,104.06 | -89,401.23 | -109,331.55 | -133,704.95 |
UFCF | 13,254.51 | 19,371.62 | 26,227.06 | -2,879.98 | -33,658.60 | 25,398.47 | 17,465.39 | 21,358.97 | 26,120.55 | 31,943.63 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 23,216.15 | 14,592.97 | 16,312.79 | 18,235.30 | 20,384.39 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 92,741.60 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.40 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 32,582.50 |
Terminal Value | 440,304.08 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 280,973.98 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 373,715.58 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 86,230 |
Equity Value | 287,485.58 |
Shares Outstanding | 10,189 |
Equity Value Per Share | 28.22 |