Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

$130.96

-4.33 (-3.20%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 28.22 | 130.96 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	232,887	280,522	386,064	469,822	513,983	628,565.80	768,692.66	940,058.17	1,149,626.37	1,405,913.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	28,019	37,365	51,076	74,256	38,352	77,750.77	95,083.84	116,280.98	142,203.63	173,905.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	12,678	15,576	25,825	39,960	-3,569	32,052.61	39,198.13	47,936.61	58,623.17	71,692.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	15,341	21,789	25,251	34,296	41,921	45,698.17	55,885.71	68,344.37	83,580.46	102,213.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	41,250	55,021	84,396	96,049	70,026	117,233.50	143,368.49	175,329.79	214,416.25	262,216.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	16,677	20,816	24,542	32,891	42,360	45,483.86	55,623.62	68,023.86	83,188.49	101,733.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	17,174	20,497	23,795	32,640	34,405	43,353.09	53,017.85	64,837.17	79,291.40	96,967.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	38,192	47,183	72,539	78,664	79,600	105,899.14	129,507.36	158,378.57	193,686.08	236,864.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-13,427	-16,861	-40,140	-61,053	-63,645	-59,777.75	-73,104.06	-89,401.23	-109,331.55	-133,704.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 130.96
Beta	1.236
Diluted Shares Outstanding	10,189
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	54.14
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.77%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.311
Total Debt	140,118
Total Equity	1,334,351.44
Total Capital	1,474,469.44
Debt Weighting	9.50
Equity Weighting	90.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	232,887	280,522	386,064	469,822	513,983	628,565.80	768,692.66	940,058.17	1,149,626.37	1,405,913.84
EBITDA	28,019	37,365	51,076	74,256	38,352	77,750.77	95,083.84	116,280.98	142,203.63	173,905.24
EBIT	12,678	15,576	25,825	39,960	-3,569	32,052.61	39,198.13	47,936.61	58,623.17	71,692.10
Tax Rate	10.55%	17.09%	11.78%	12.55%	54.14%	21.22%	21.22%	21.22%	21.22%	21.22%
EBIAT	11,340.51	12,914.62	22,784.07	34,946.02	-1,636.59	25,250.85	30,880.05	37,764.18	46,182.98	56,478.61
Depreciation	15,341	21,789	25,251	34,296	41,921	45,698.17	55,885.71	68,344.37	83,580.46	102,213.14
Accounts Receivable	-	-4,139	-3,726	-8,349	-9,469	-3,123.86	-10,139.77	-12,400.24	-15,164.63	-18,545.30
Inventories	-	-3,323	-3,298	-8,845	-1,765	-8,948.10	-9,664.75	-11,819.33	-14,454.22	-17,676.52
Accounts Payable	-	8,991	25,356	6,125	936	26,299.15	23,608.21	28,871.22	35,307.51	43,178.65
Capital Expenditure	-13,427	-16,861	-40,140	-61,053	-63,645	-59,777.75	-73,104.06	-89,401.23	-109,331.55	-133,704.95
UFCF	13,254.51	19,371.62	26,227.06	-2,879.98	-33,658.60	25,398.47	17,465.39	21,358.97	26,120.55	31,943.63
WACC
PV UFCF						23,216.15	14,592.97	16,312.79	18,235.30	20,384.39
SUM PV UFCF										92,741.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.40
Free cash flow (t + 1)	32,582.50
Terminal Value	440,304.08
Present Value of Terminal Value	280,973.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	373,715.58
Net Debt	86,230
Equity Value	287,485.58
Shares Outstanding	10,189
Equity Value Per Share	28.22