Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
$174.48
+0.06 (+0.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 280,522 | 386,064 | 469,822 | 513,983 | 574,785 | 690,529.30 | 829,580.99 | 996,633.48 | 1,197,325.28 | 1,438,430.34 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 37,039 | 48,647 | 59,741 | 54,618 | 88,287 | 89,087.19 | 107,026.65 | 128,578.58 | 154,470.41 | 185,576.07 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 15,250 | 23,396 | 25,445 | 12,697 | 39,624 | 36,289.15 | 43,596.69 | 52,375.74 | 62,922.63 | 75,593.34 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 21,789 | 25,251 | 34,296 | 41,921 | 48,663 | 52,798.04 | 63,429.96 | 76,202.83 | 91,547.78 | 109,982.73 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 55,342 | 84,653 | 96,309 | 70,391 | 87,283 | 125,724.65 | 151,041.79 | 181,457.03 | 217,996.98 | 261,894.97 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 20,495 | 24,285 | 32,631 | 41,995 | 51,750 | 52,087.58 | 62,576.45 | 75,177.45 | 90,315.91 | 108,502.80 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 20,497 | 23,795 | 32,640 | 34,405 | 33,318 | 45,447.79 | 54,599.59 | 65,594.30 | 78,803.01 | 94,671.54 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 47,183 | 72,539 | 78,664 | 79,600 | 84,981 | 114,108.83 | 137,086.89 | 164,692.04 | 197,856.03 | 237,698.24 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -16,861 | -40,140 | -61,053 | -63,645 | -52,729 | -70,377.56 | -84,549.47 | -101,575.17 | -122,029.33 | -146,602.35 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 174.48 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.171 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10,492 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.99 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.53% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.883 |
Total Debt | 135,611 |
Total Equity | 1,830,644.16 |
Total Capital | 1,966,255.16 |
Debt Weighting | 6.90 |
Equity Weighting | 93.10 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 280,522 | 386,064 | 469,822 | 513,983 | 574,785 | 690,529.30 | 829,580.99 | 996,633.48 | 1,197,325.28 | 1,438,430.34 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 37,039 | 48,647 | 59,741 | 54,618 | 88,287 | 89,087.19 | 107,026.65 | 128,578.58 | 154,470.41 | 185,576.07 |
EBIT | 15,250 | 23,396 | 25,445 | 12,697 | 39,624 | 36,289.15 | 43,596.69 | 52,375.74 | 62,922.63 | 75,593.34 |
Tax Rate | 17.00% | 11.83% | 12.56% | 54.14% | 18.99% | 22.91% | 22.91% | 22.91% | 22.91% | 22.91% |
EBIAT | 12,657 | 20,627.43 | 22,249.95 | 5,822.31 | 32,099.48 | 27,976.94 | 33,610.65 | 40,378.82 | 48,509.89 | 58,278.31 |
Depreciation | 21,789 | 25,251 | 34,296 | 41,921 | 48,663 | 52,798.04 | 63,429.96 | 76,202.83 | 91,547.78 | 109,982.73 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -3,790 | -8,346 | -9,364 | -9,755 | -337.59 | -10,488.86 | -12,601 | -15,138.46 | -18,186.89 |
Inventories | - | -3,298 | -8,845 | -1,765 | 1,087 | -12,129.79 | -9,151.81 | -10,994.71 | -13,208.71 | -15,868.54 |
Accounts Payable | - | 25,356 | 6,125 | 936 | 5,381.01 | 29,127.82 | 22,978.06 | 27,605.15 | 33,163.99 | 39,842.21 |
Capital Expenditure | -16,861 | -40,140 | -61,053 | -63,645 | -52,729 | -70,377.56 | -84,549.47 | -101,575.17 | -122,029.33 | -146,602.35 |
UFCF | 17,585 | 24,006.43 | -15,573.04 | -26,094.69 | 24,746.49 | 27,057.87 | 15,828.54 | 19,015.92 | 22,845.15 | 27,445.48 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 24,723.93 | 13,215.65 | 14,507.39 | 15,925.38 | 17,481.97 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 85,854.31 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.44 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 28,543.30 |
Terminal Value | 524,692.93 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 334,214.12 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 420,068.43 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 61,721 |
Equity Value | 358,347.43 |
Shares Outstanding | 10,492 |
Equity Value Per Share | 34.15 |