Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

$130.96

-4.33 (-3.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 28.22 | 130.96 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 232,887280,522386,064469,822513,983628,565.80768,692.66940,058.171,149,626.371,405,913.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 28,01937,36551,07674,25638,35277,750.7795,083.84116,280.98142,203.63173,905.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 12,67815,57625,82539,960-3,56932,052.6139,198.1347,936.6158,623.1771,692.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 15,34121,78925,25134,29641,92145,698.1755,885.7168,344.3783,580.46102,213.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 41,25055,02184,39696,04970,026117,233.50143,368.49175,329.79214,416.25262,216.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16,67720,81624,54232,89142,36045,483.8655,623.6268,023.8683,188.49101,733.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17,17420,49723,79532,64034,40543,353.0953,017.8564,837.1779,291.4096,967.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 38,19247,18372,53978,66479,600105,899.14129,507.36158,378.57193,686.08236,864.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -13,427-16,861-40,140-61,053-63,645-59,777.75-73,104.06-89,401.23-109,331.55-133,704.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 130.96
Beta 1.236
Diluted Shares Outstanding 10,189
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 54.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.77%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.311
Total Debt 140,118
Total Equity 1,334,351.44
Total Capital 1,474,469.44
Debt Weighting 9.50
Equity Weighting 90.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 232,887280,522386,064469,822513,983628,565.80768,692.66940,058.171,149,626.371,405,913.84
EBITDA 28,01937,36551,07674,25638,35277,750.7795,083.84116,280.98142,203.63173,905.24
EBIT 12,67815,57625,82539,960-3,56932,052.6139,198.1347,936.6158,623.1771,692.10
Tax Rate 10.55%17.09%11.78%12.55%54.14%21.22%21.22%21.22%21.22%21.22%
EBIAT 11,340.5112,914.6222,784.0734,946.02-1,636.5925,250.8530,880.0537,764.1846,182.9856,478.61
Depreciation 15,34121,78925,25134,29641,92145,698.1755,885.7168,344.3783,580.46102,213.14
Accounts Receivable --4,139-3,726-8,349-9,469-3,123.86-10,139.77-12,400.24-15,164.63-18,545.30
Inventories --3,323-3,298-8,845-1,765-8,948.10-9,664.75-11,819.33-14,454.22-17,676.52
Accounts Payable -8,99125,3566,12593626,299.1523,608.2128,871.2235,307.5143,178.65
Capital Expenditure -13,427-16,861-40,140-61,053-63,645-59,777.75-73,104.06-89,401.23-109,331.55-133,704.95
UFCF 13,254.5119,371.6226,227.06-2,879.98-33,658.6025,398.4717,465.3921,358.9726,120.5531,943.63
WACC
PV UFCF 23,216.1514,592.9716,312.7918,235.3020,384.39
SUM PV UFCF 92,741.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 32,582.50
Terminal Value 440,304.08
Present Value of Terminal Value 280,973.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 373,715.58
Net Debt 86,230
Equity Value 287,485.58
Shares Outstanding 10,189
Equity Value Per Share 28.22