Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)
$35.05
-0.15 (-0.43%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 2,482.69 | 1,983.22 | 2,927.54 | 3,330.04 | 3,787.87 | 4,308.65 | 4,901.02 | 5,574.84 | 6,341.31 | 7,213.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 225.97 | -256.02 | 171.97 | 22.94 | 26.09 | 29.68 | 33.76 | 38.41 | 43.69 | 49.69 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 137.84 | -347.44 | 82.32 | -101.62 | -115.59 | -131.49 | -149.56 | -170.13 | -193.52 | -220.12 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 88.13 | 91.41 | 89.65 | 124.56 | 141.69 | 161.17 | 183.33 | 208.53 | 237.20 | 269.81 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 58.42 | 154.08 | 189.63 | 184.26 | 209.59 | 238.41 | 271.19 | 308.47 | 350.88 | 399.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 94.93 | 112.68 | 136.68 | 157.33 | 178.96 | 203.56 | 231.55 | 263.39 | 299.60 | 340.79 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 47.22 | 39.29 | 42.84 | 59.35 | 67.51 | 76.79 | 87.34 | 99.35 | 113.01 | 128.55 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 61.95 | 58.43 | 54.09 | 80.91 | 92.03 | 104.68 | 119.08 | 135.45 | 154.07 | 175.25 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -75.87 | -50.91 | -67.55 | -88.03 | -100.13 | -113.90 | -129.56 | -147.37 | -167.63 | -190.68 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 35.05 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.444 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50.41 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -31.10 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.33% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.308 |
Total Debt | 1,840.63 |
Total Equity | 1,767.01 |
Total Capital | 3,607.64 |
Debt Weighting | 51.02 |
Equity Weighting | 48.98 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 2,482.69 | 1,983.22 | 2,927.54 | 3,330.04 | 3,787.87 | 4,308.65 | 4,901.02 | 5,574.84 | 6,341.31 | 7,213.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 225.97 | -256.02 | 171.97 | 22.94 | 26.09 | 29.68 | 33.76 | 38.41 | 43.69 | 49.69 |
EBIT | 137.84 | -347.44 | 82.32 | -101.62 | -115.59 | -131.49 | -149.56 | -170.13 | -193.52 | -220.12 |
Tax Rate | 9.29% | 28.84% | -1.05% | 1.49% | -31.10% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.49% |
EBIAT | 125.03 | -247.25 | 83.18 | -100.10 | -151.55 | -129.52 | -147.33 | -167.59 | -190.63 | -216.83 |
Depreciation | 88.13 | 91.41 | 89.65 | 124.56 | 141.69 | 161.17 | 183.33 | 208.53 | 237.20 | 269.81 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -17.75 | -24 | -20.65 | -21.63 | -24.60 | -27.99 | -31.84 | -36.21 | -41.19 |
Inventories | - | 7.94 | -3.55 | -16.51 | -8.16 | -9.28 | -10.56 | -12.01 | -13.66 | -15.54 |
Accounts Payable | - | -3.51 | -4.35 | 26.82 | 11.12 | 12.65 | 14.39 | 16.37 | 18.62 | 21.18 |
Capital Expenditure | -75.86 | -50.91 | -67.55 | -88.03 | -113.14 | -113.90 | -129.56 | -147.37 | -167.63 | -190.68 |
UFCF | 137.30 | -220.07 | 73.39 | -73.91 | -128.66 | -103.48 | -117.71 | -133.89 | -152.30 | -173.24 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -77.77 | -128.66 | -98.35 | -106.32 | -114.94 | -124.26 | -134.33 | |||
SUM PV UFCF | -578.19 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.22 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -176.71 |
Terminal Value | -5,487.80 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,255.07 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -4,833.27 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,725.85 |
Equity Value | -6,559.12 |
Shares Outstanding | 50.41 |
Equity Value Per Share | -130.11 |