Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)

$35.05

-0.15 (-0.43%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -130.11 | 35.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	2,482.69	1,983.22	2,927.54	3,330.04	3,787.87	4,308.65	4,901.02	5,574.84	6,341.31	7,213.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	225.97	-256.02	171.97	22.94	26.09	29.68	33.76	38.41	43.69	49.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	137.84	-347.44	82.32	-101.62	-115.59	-131.49	-149.56	-170.13	-193.52	-220.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	88.13	91.41	89.65	124.56	141.69	161.17	183.33	208.53	237.20	269.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	58.42	154.08	189.63	184.26	209.59	238.41	271.19	308.47	350.88	399.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	94.93	112.68	136.68	157.33	178.96	203.56	231.55	263.39	299.60	340.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	47.22	39.29	42.84	59.35	67.51	76.79	87.34	99.35	113.01	128.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	61.95	58.43	54.09	80.91	92.03	104.68	119.08	135.45	154.07	175.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-75.87	-50.91	-67.55	-88.03	-100.13	-113.90	-129.56	-147.37	-167.63	-190.68
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 35.05
Beta	1.444
Diluted Shares Outstanding	50.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-31.10
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.308
Total Debt	1,840.63
Total Equity	1,767.01
Total Capital	3,607.64
Debt Weighting	51.02
Equity Weighting	48.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	2,482.69	1,983.22	2,927.54	3,330.04	3,787.87	4,308.65	4,901.02	5,574.84	6,341.31	7,213.15
EBITDA	225.97	-256.02	171.97	22.94	26.09	29.68	33.76	38.41	43.69	49.69
EBIT	137.84	-347.44	82.32	-101.62	-115.59	-131.49	-149.56	-170.13	-193.52	-220.12
Tax Rate	9.29%	28.84%	-1.05%	1.49%	-31.10%	1.49%	1.49%	1.49%	1.49%	1.49%
EBIAT	125.03	-247.25	83.18	-100.10	-151.55	-129.52	-147.33	-167.59	-190.63	-216.83
Depreciation	88.13	91.41	89.65	124.56	141.69	161.17	183.33	208.53	237.20	269.81
Accounts Receivable	-	-17.75	-24	-20.65	-21.63	-24.60	-27.99	-31.84	-36.21	-41.19
Inventories	-	7.94	-3.55	-16.51	-8.16	-9.28	-10.56	-12.01	-13.66	-15.54
Accounts Payable	-	-3.51	-4.35	26.82	11.12	12.65	14.39	16.37	18.62	21.18
Capital Expenditure	-75.86	-50.91	-67.55	-88.03	-113.14	-113.90	-129.56	-147.37	-167.63	-190.68
UFCF	137.30	-220.07	73.39	-73.91	-128.66	-103.48	-117.71	-133.89	-152.30	-173.24
WACC
PV UFCF				-77.77	-128.66	-98.35	-106.32	-114.94	-124.26	-134.33
SUM PV UFCF										-578.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.22
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-176.71
Terminal Value	-5,487.80
Present Value of Terminal Value	-4,255.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-4,833.27
Net Debt	1,725.85
Equity Value	-6,559.12
Shares Outstanding	50.41
Equity Value Per Share	-130.11