Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)

$35.05

-0.15 (-0.43%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -130.11 | 35.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,482.691,983.222,927.543,330.043,787.874,308.654,901.025,574.846,341.317,213.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 225.97-256.02171.9722.9426.0929.6833.7638.4143.6949.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 137.84-347.4482.32-101.62-115.59-131.49-149.56-170.13-193.52-220.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 88.1391.4189.65124.56141.69161.17183.33208.53237.20269.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 58.42154.08189.63184.26209.59238.41271.19308.47350.88399.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 94.93112.68136.68157.33178.96203.56231.55263.39299.60340.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 47.2239.2942.8459.3567.5176.7987.3499.35113.01128.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 61.9558.4354.0980.9192.03104.68119.08135.45154.07175.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -75.87-50.91-67.55-88.03-100.13-113.90-129.56-147.37-167.63-190.68
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 35.05
Beta 1.444
Diluted Shares Outstanding 50.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -31.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.308
Total Debt 1,840.63
Total Equity 1,767.01
Total Capital 3,607.64
Debt Weighting 51.02
Equity Weighting 48.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,482.691,983.222,927.543,330.043,787.874,308.654,901.025,574.846,341.317,213.15
EBITDA 225.97-256.02171.9722.9426.0929.6833.7638.4143.6949.69
EBIT 137.84-347.4482.32-101.62-115.59-131.49-149.56-170.13-193.52-220.12
Tax Rate 9.29%28.84%-1.05%1.49%-31.10%1.49%1.49%1.49%1.49%1.49%
EBIAT 125.03-247.2583.18-100.10-151.55-129.52-147.33-167.59-190.63-216.83
Depreciation 88.1391.4189.65124.56141.69161.17183.33208.53237.20269.81
Accounts Receivable --17.75-24-20.65-21.63-24.60-27.99-31.84-36.21-41.19
Inventories -7.94-3.55-16.51-8.16-9.28-10.56-12.01-13.66-15.54
Accounts Payable --3.51-4.3526.8211.1212.6514.3916.3718.6221.18
Capital Expenditure -75.86-50.91-67.55-88.03-113.14-113.90-129.56-147.37-167.63-190.68
UFCF 137.30-220.0773.39-73.91-128.66-103.48-117.71-133.89-152.30-173.24
WACC
PV UFCF -77.77-128.66-98.35-106.32-114.94-124.26-134.33
SUM PV UFCF -578.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.22
Free cash flow (t + 1) -176.71
Terminal Value -5,487.80
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,255.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -4,833.27
Net Debt 1,725.85
Equity Value -6,559.12
Shares Outstanding 50.41
Equity Value Per Share -130.11