Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)
$52.325
-1.36 (-2.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 52.60 | 75.15 | 130.73 | 314.27 | 653.60 | 1,250.33 | 2,391.87 | 4,575.61 | 8,753.08 | 16,744.51 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -10.64 | -1.10 | 9.88 | -2.51 | -150.35 | -94.87 | -181.48 | -347.16 | -664.11 | -1,270.44 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -10.71 | -1.99 | 8.14 | -3.77 | -152.27 | -103.25 | -197.51 | -377.83 | -722.78 | -1,382.68 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 0.07 | 0.89 | 1.74 | 1.26 | 1.92 | 8.38 | 16.03 | 30.67 | 58.67 | 112.24 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 7.74 | 23.09 | 43.25 | 16.25 | 614.16 | 444.29 | 849.92 | 1,625.88 | 3,110.27 | 5,949.91 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 12.98 | 8.96 | 16.87 | 41.33 | 66.29 | 182.03 | 348.22 | 666.14 | 1,274.32 | 2,437.76 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 11.48 | 15.29 | 18.40 | 191.22 | 173.29 | 359.13 | 687.02 | 1,314.26 | 2,514.16 | 4,809.54 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 14.85 | 17.29 | 11.85 | 35.82 | 36.25 | 193.16 | 369.52 | 706.88 | 1,352.25 | 2,586.84 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.57 | -3.15 | -8.26 | -7.55 | -14.44 | -27.63 | -52.86 | -101.12 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 52.325 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.846 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 75.65 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -22.68 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 434.13% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.016 |
Total Debt | 1.22 |
Total Equity | 3,958.33 |
Total Capital | 3,959.55 |
Debt Weighting | 0.03 |
Equity Weighting | 99.97 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 52.60 | 75.15 | 130.73 | 314.27 | 653.60 | 1,250.33 | 2,391.87 | 4,575.61 | 8,753.08 | 16,744.51 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -10.64 | -1.10 | 9.88 | -2.51 | -150.35 | -94.87 | -181.48 | -347.16 | -664.11 | -1,270.44 |
EBIT | -10.71 | -1.99 | 8.14 | -3.77 | -152.27 | -103.25 | -197.51 | -377.83 | -722.78 | -1,382.68 |
Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.34% | 197.01% | -22.68% | 35.14% | 35.14% | 35.14% | 35.14% | 35.14% |
EBIAT | -10.71 | -1.99 | 8.03 | 3.66 | -186.80 | -66.97 | -128.11 | -245.07 | -468.82 | -896.85 |
Depreciation | 0.07 | 0.89 | 1.74 | 1.26 | 1.92 | 8.38 | 16.03 | 30.67 | 58.67 | 112.24 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 4.02 | -7.92 | -24.46 | -24.96 | -115.74 | -166.19 | -317.92 | -608.18 | -1,163.44 |
Inventories | - | -3.81 | -3.11 | -172.82 | 17.93 | -185.85 | -327.88 | -627.24 | -1,199.90 | -2,295.39 |
Accounts Payable | - | 2.45 | -5.44 | 23.97 | 0.43 | 156.91 | 176.35 | 337.36 | 645.37 | 1,234.59 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.57 | -3.15 | -8.26 | -7.55 | -14.44 | -27.63 | -52.86 | -101.12 |
UFCF | -10.75 | 1.49 | -7.27 | -171.53 | -199.75 | -210.81 | -444.24 | -849.83 | -1,625.71 | -3,109.97 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -186.31 | -346.99 | -586.64 | -991.80 | -1,676.81 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -3,788.54 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 13.15 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3,172.17 |
Terminal Value | -28,449.91 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -15,339.39 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -19,127.94 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -612.94 |
Equity Value | -18,515 |
Shares Outstanding | 75.65 |
Equity Value Per Share | -244.75 |