Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)

$52.325

-1.36 (-2.54%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -244.75 | 52.325 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	52.60	75.15	130.73	314.27	653.60	1,250.33	2,391.87	4,575.61	8,753.08	16,744.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-10.64	-1.10	9.88	-2.51	-150.35	-94.87	-181.48	-347.16	-664.11	-1,270.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-10.71	-1.99	8.14	-3.77	-152.27	-103.25	-197.51	-377.83	-722.78	-1,382.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	0.07	0.89	1.74	1.26	1.92	8.38	16.03	30.67	58.67	112.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	7.74	23.09	43.25	16.25	614.16	444.29	849.92	1,625.88	3,110.27	5,949.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	12.98	8.96	16.87	41.33	66.29	182.03	348.22	666.14	1,274.32	2,437.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	11.48	15.29	18.40	191.22	173.29	359.13	687.02	1,314.26	2,514.16	4,809.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	14.85	17.29	11.85	35.82	36.25	193.16	369.52	706.88	1,352.25	2,586.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-0.11	-0.08	-0.57	-3.15	-8.26	-7.55	-14.44	-27.63	-52.86	-101.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 52.325
Beta	1.846
Diluted Shares Outstanding	75.65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-22.68
After-tax Cost of Debt	434.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.016
Total Debt	1.22
Total Equity	3,958.33
Total Capital	3,959.55
Debt Weighting	0.03
Equity Weighting	99.97
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	52.60	75.15	130.73	314.27	653.60	1,250.33	2,391.87	4,575.61	8,753.08	16,744.51
EBITDA	-10.64	-1.10	9.88	-2.51	-150.35	-94.87	-181.48	-347.16	-664.11	-1,270.44
EBIT	-10.71	-1.99	8.14	-3.77	-152.27	-103.25	-197.51	-377.83	-722.78	-1,382.68
Tax Rate	0.00%	0.00%	1.34%	197.01%	-22.68%	35.14%	35.14%	35.14%	35.14%	35.14%
EBIAT	-10.71	-1.99	8.03	3.66	-186.80	-66.97	-128.11	-245.07	-468.82	-896.85
Depreciation	0.07	0.89	1.74	1.26	1.92	8.38	16.03	30.67	58.67	112.24
Accounts Receivable	-	4.02	-7.92	-24.46	-24.96	-115.74	-166.19	-317.92	-608.18	-1,163.44
Inventories	-	-3.81	-3.11	-172.82	17.93	-185.85	-327.88	-627.24	-1,199.90	-2,295.39
Accounts Payable	-	2.45	-5.44	23.97	0.43	156.91	176.35	337.36	645.37	1,234.59
Capital Expenditure	-0.11	-0.08	-0.57	-3.15	-8.26	-7.55	-14.44	-27.63	-52.86	-101.12
UFCF	-10.75	1.49	-7.27	-171.53	-199.75	-210.81	-444.24	-849.83	-1,625.71	-3,109.97
WACC
PV UFCF						-186.31	-346.99	-586.64	-991.80	-1,676.81
SUM PV UFCF										-3,788.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	13.15
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-3,172.17
Terminal Value	-28,449.91
Present Value of Terminal Value	-15,339.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-19,127.94
Net Debt	-612.94
Equity Value	-18,515
Shares Outstanding	75.65
Equity Value Per Share	-244.75