Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)

$16.55

+0.65 (+4.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 71.15 | 16.55 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 755.24769.55781.93783.29991.601,066.641,147.361,234.181,327.581,428.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 42.5345.3738.6651.4399.9470.6575.9981.7487.9394.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 23.6526.4820.1332.1779.5545.3948.8252.5256.4960.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 18.8818.8918.5419.2620.3925.2627.1729.2331.4433.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 79.9568.2147.48123.1849.7998.71106.18114.21122.85132.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables --1.191.191.501.621.741.872.012.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 137.70139.84138.26103.84123.84170.30183.19197.06211.97228.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 75.9573.3979.6084.8398.88107.89116.05124.84134.28144.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.99-13.26-24.18-16.96-29.71-27.21-29.27-31.48-33.86-36.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.55
Beta 2.313
Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.700
Total Debt 216.11
Total Equity 149.17
Total Capital 365.27
Debt Weighting 59.16
Equity Weighting 40.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 755.24769.55781.93783.29991.601,066.641,147.361,234.181,327.581,428.05
EBITDA 42.5345.3738.6651.4399.9470.6575.9981.7487.9394.58
EBIT 23.6526.4820.1332.1779.5545.3948.8252.5256.4960.77
Tax Rate 37.98%18.82%17.35%23.62%21.46%23.85%23.85%23.85%23.85%23.85%
EBIAT 14.6721.5016.6324.5762.4834.5637.1839.9943.0246.28
Depreciation 18.8818.8918.5419.2620.3925.2627.1729.2331.4433.82
Accounts Receivable ----0-0.32-0.11-0.12-0.13-0.14-0.15
Inventories --2.141.5834.41-19.99-46.47-12.89-13.86-14.91-16.04
Accounts Payable --2.566.215.2414.059.018.168.789.4510.16
Capital Expenditure -20.99-13.26-24.18-16.96-29.71-27.21-29.27-31.48-33.86-36.43
UFCF 12.5622.4318.7866.5246.91-4.9630.2432.5334.9937.64
WACC
PV UFCF -4.6726.8827.2627.6428.03
SUM PV UFCF 105.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) 38.39
Terminal Value 943.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 702.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 807.62
Net Debt 166.32
Equity Value 641.30
Shares Outstanding 9.01
Equity Value Per Share 71.15