Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)

$16.55

+0.65 (+4.09%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 71.15 | 16.55 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	755.24	769.55	781.93	783.29	991.60	1,066.64	1,147.36	1,234.18	1,327.58	1,428.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	42.53	45.37	38.66	51.43	99.94	70.65	75.99	81.74	87.93	94.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	23.65	26.48	20.13	32.17	79.55	45.39	48.82	52.52	56.49	60.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	18.88	18.89	18.54	19.26	20.39	25.26	27.17	29.23	31.44	33.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	79.95	68.21	47.48	123.18	49.79	98.71	106.18	114.21	122.85	132.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	1.19	1.19	1.50	1.62	1.74	1.87	2.01	2.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	137.70	139.84	138.26	103.84	123.84	170.30	183.19	197.06	211.97	228.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	75.95	73.39	79.60	84.83	98.88	107.89	116.05	124.84	134.28	144.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-20.99	-13.26	-24.18	-16.96	-29.71	-27.21	-29.27	-31.48	-33.86	-36.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 16.55
Beta	2.313
Diluted Shares Outstanding	9.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.46
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.700
Total Debt	216.11
Total Equity	149.17
Total Capital	365.27
Debt Weighting	59.16
Equity Weighting	40.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	755.24	769.55	781.93	783.29	991.60	1,066.64	1,147.36	1,234.18	1,327.58	1,428.05
EBITDA	42.53	45.37	38.66	51.43	99.94	70.65	75.99	81.74	87.93	94.58
EBIT	23.65	26.48	20.13	32.17	79.55	45.39	48.82	52.52	56.49	60.77
Tax Rate	37.98%	18.82%	17.35%	23.62%	21.46%	23.85%	23.85%	23.85%	23.85%	23.85%
EBIAT	14.67	21.50	16.63	24.57	62.48	34.56	37.18	39.99	43.02	46.28
Depreciation	18.88	18.89	18.54	19.26	20.39	25.26	27.17	29.23	31.44	33.82
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-0	-0.32	-0.11	-0.12	-0.13	-0.14	-0.15
Inventories	-	-2.14	1.58	34.41	-19.99	-46.47	-12.89	-13.86	-14.91	-16.04
Accounts Payable	-	-2.56	6.21	5.24	14.05	9.01	8.16	8.78	9.45	10.16
Capital Expenditure	-20.99	-13.26	-24.18	-16.96	-29.71	-27.21	-29.27	-31.48	-33.86	-36.43
UFCF	12.56	22.43	18.78	66.52	46.91	-4.96	30.24	32.53	34.99	37.64
WACC
PV UFCF						-4.67	26.88	27.26	27.64	28.03
SUM PV UFCF										105.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.07
Free cash flow (t + 1)	38.39
Terminal Value	943.20
Present Value of Terminal Value	702.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	807.62
Net Debt	166.32
Equity Value	641.30
Shares Outstanding	9.01
Equity Value Per Share	71.15