Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)
$20.99
-2.32 (-9.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 755.24 | 769.55 | 781.93 | 783.29 | 991.60 | 1,066.64 | 1,147.36 | 1,234.18 | 1,327.58 | 1,428.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 42.53 | 45.37 | 38.66 | 51.43 | 99.94 | 70.65 | 75.99 | 81.74 | 87.93 | 94.58 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 23.65 | 26.48 | 20.13 | 32.17 | 79.55 | 45.39 | 48.82 | 52.52 | 56.49 | 60.77 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.88 | 18.89 | 18.54 | 19.26 | 20.39 | 25.26 | 27.17 | 29.23 | 31.44 | 33.82 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 79.95 | 68.21 | 47.48 | 123.18 | 49.79 | 98.71 | 106.18 | 114.21 | 122.85 | 132.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.74 | 1.87 | 2.01 | 2.17 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 137.70 | 139.84 | 138.26 | 103.84 | 123.84 | 170.30 | 183.19 | 197.06 | 211.97 | 228.01 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 75.95 | 73.39 | 79.60 | 84.83 | 98.88 | 107.89 | 116.05 | 124.84 | 134.28 | 144.44 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -20.99 | -13.26 | -24.18 | -16.96 | -29.71 | -27.21 | -29.27 | -31.48 | -33.86 | -36.43 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 20.99 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.287 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9.01 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.46 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.11% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.399 |
| Total Debt | 216.11 |
| Total Equity | 189.18 |
| Total Capital | 405.29 |
| Debt Weighting | 53.32 |
| Equity Weighting | 46.68 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 755.24 | 769.55 | 781.93 | 783.29 | 991.60 | 1,066.64 | 1,147.36 | 1,234.18 | 1,327.58 | 1,428.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 42.53 | 45.37 | 38.66 | 51.43 | 99.94 | 70.65 | 75.99 | 81.74 | 87.93 | 94.58 |
| EBIT | 23.65 | 26.48 | 20.13 | 32.17 | 79.55 | 45.39 | 48.82 | 52.52 | 56.49 | 60.77 |
| Tax Rate | 37.98% | 18.82% | 17.35% | 23.62% | 21.46% | 23.85% | 23.85% | 23.85% | 23.85% | 23.85% |
| EBIAT | 14.67 | 21.50 | 16.63 | 24.57 | 62.48 | 34.56 | 37.18 | 39.99 | 43.02 | 46.28 |
| Depreciation | 18.88 | 18.89 | 18.54 | 19.26 | 20.39 | 25.26 | 27.17 | 29.23 | 31.44 | 33.82 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | -0 | -0.32 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.15 |
| Inventories | - | -2.14 | 1.58 | 34.41 | -19.99 | -46.47 | -12.89 | -13.86 | -14.91 | -16.04 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.56 | 6.21 | 5.24 | 14.05 | 9.01 | 8.16 | 8.78 | 9.45 | 10.16 |
| Capital Expenditure | -20.99 | -13.26 | -24.18 | -16.96 | -29.71 | -27.21 | -29.27 | -31.48 | -33.86 | -36.43 |
| UFCF | 12.56 | 22.43 | 18.78 | 66.52 | 46.91 | -4.96 | 30.24 | 32.53 | 34.99 | 37.64 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -4.64 | 26.52 | 26.72 | 26.91 | 27.11 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 102.62 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.78 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 38.39 |
| Terminal Value | 803.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 578.52 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 681.14 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 166.32 |
| Equity Value | 514.82 |
| Shares Outstanding | 9.01 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 57.12 |