Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

$31.2

+1.64 (+5.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -244.25 | 31.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 41,24444,43847,00717,09529,89931,752.0833,720.0235,809.9338,029.3640,386.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,3327,7919,080-12,3463,675-182.78-194.11-206.14-218.92-232.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6,0975,4626,499-14,6581,677-2,491.64-2,646.07-2,810.07-2,984.23-3,169.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,2352,3292,5812,3121,9982,308.862,451.962,603.922,765.312,936.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,6391,7682,88214,09611,3198,688.799,227.319,799.2010,406.5411,051.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,3772,3142,8541,3962,4042,111.422,242.282,381.252,528.842,685.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,3291,0551,2517321,0981,029.531,093.341,161.101,233.061,309.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,6742,9763,2662,8404,2403,387.753,597.723,820.704,057.504,308.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,891-5,168-4,936-1,899-3,247-3,399.55-3,610.25-3,834.01-4,071.63-4,323.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 31.2
Beta 1.054
Diluted Shares Outstanding 641
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.60%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.102
Total Debt 34,679
Total Equity 19,999.20
Total Capital 54,678.20
Debt Weighting 63.42
Equity Weighting 36.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 41,24444,43847,00717,09529,89931,752.0833,720.0235,809.9338,029.3640,386.35
EBITDA 8,3327,7919,080-12,3463,675-182.78-194.11-206.14-218.92-232.49
EBIT 6,0975,4626,499-14,6581,677-2,491.64-2,646.07-2,810.07-2,984.23-3,169.19
Tax Rate 37.26%23.61%23.09%20.54%29.65%26.83%26.83%26.83%26.83%26.83%
EBIAT 3,825.464,172.584,998.50-11,646.841,179.80-1,823.17-1,936.17-2,056.17-2,183.60-2,318.94
Depreciation 2,2352,3292,5812,3121,9982,308.862,451.962,603.922,765.312,936.70
Accounts Receivable -63-5401,458-1,008292.58-130.86-138.97-147.59-156.73
Inventories -274-196519-36668.47-63.81-67.76-71.96-76.42
Accounts Payable --698290-4261,400-852.25209.97222.98236.80251.48
Capital Expenditure -3,891-5,168-4,936-1,899-3,247-3,399.55-3,610.25-3,834.01-4,071.63-4,323.98
UFCF 2,169.46972.582,197.50-9,682.84-43.20-3,405.06-3,079.16-3,270-3,472.67-3,687.90
WACC
PV UFCF -3,255-2,813.76-2,856.46-2,899.82-2,943.84
SUM PV UFCF -14,768.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3,761.66
Terminal Value -144,124.97
Present Value of Terminal Value -115,046.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -129,815.33
Net Debt 26,746
Equity Value -156,561.33
Shares Outstanding 641
Equity Value Per Share -244.25