Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)

$3.93

-0.28 (-6.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.52 | 3.93 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,636.752,218.911,416.87967.11599.09416.68289.81201.57140.2097.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 125.70107.74-260.41160.84-132.54-11.87-8.26-5.74-4-2.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9.871.98-260.4988.03-195.20-34.50-24-16.69-11.61-8.07
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 115.83105.770.0872.8262.6622.6315.7410.957.615.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 841.02750.89888.26498.73281.28189.13131.5491.4963.6444.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 76.2159.744336.7544.9716.6011.558.035.593.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 33.7425.4317.1811.737.275.053.512.441.701.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 690.14561.3633.0322.1759.5755.0338.2826.6218.5212.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -87.96-71.07-0.05-99.26-36.17-19.04-13.24-9.21-6.41-4.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.93
Beta 1.821
Diluted Shares Outstanding 30.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -23.77
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.096
Total Debt 309.23
Total Equity 118.55
Total Capital 427.79
Debt Weighting 72.29
Equity Weighting 27.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,636.752,218.911,416.87967.11599.09416.68289.81201.57140.2097.51
EBITDA 125.70107.74-260.41160.84-132.54-11.87-8.26-5.74-4-2.78
EBIT 9.871.98-260.4988.03-195.20-34.50-24-16.69-11.61-8.07
Tax Rate 1,174.59%-65.38%2.68%-36.72%-23.77%210.28%210.28%210.28%210.28%210.28%
EBIAT -106.093.27-253.51120.35-241.6138.0526.4618.4112.808.90
Depreciation 115.83105.770.0872.8262.6622.6315.7410.957.615.30
Accounts Receivable -16.4716.756.24-8.2228.375.063.522.451.70
Inventories -8.318.245.454.462.211.541.070.740.52
Accounts Payable --128.78-528.33-10.8637.40-4.53-16.76-11.65-8.11-5.64
Capital Expenditure -87.96-71.07-0.05-99.26-36.17-19.04-13.24-9.21-6.41-4.45
UFCF -78.22-66.04-756.8294.74-181.4667.6918.8013.089.106.33
WACC
PV UFCF 63.2816.4310.686.954.52
SUM PV UFCF 101.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6.45
Terminal Value 129.83
Present Value of Terminal Value 92.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 194.55
Net Debt 27.95
Equity Value 166.60
Shares Outstanding 30.17
Equity Value Per Share 5.52