Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)
$3.93
-0.28 (-6.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,636.75 | 2,218.91 | 1,416.87 | 967.11 | 599.09 | 416.68 | 289.81 | 201.57 | 140.20 | 97.51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 125.70 | 107.74 | -260.41 | 160.84 | -132.54 | -11.87 | -8.26 | -5.74 | -4 | -2.78 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 9.87 | 1.98 | -260.49 | 88.03 | -195.20 | -34.50 | -24 | -16.69 | -11.61 | -8.07 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 115.83 | 105.77 | 0.08 | 72.82 | 62.66 | 22.63 | 15.74 | 10.95 | 7.61 | 5.30 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 841.02 | 750.89 | 888.26 | 498.73 | 281.28 | 189.13 | 131.54 | 91.49 | 63.64 | 44.26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 76.21 | 59.74 | 43 | 36.75 | 44.97 | 16.60 | 11.55 | 8.03 | 5.59 | 3.89 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 33.74 | 25.43 | 17.18 | 11.73 | 7.27 | 5.05 | 3.51 | 2.44 | 1.70 | 1.18 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 690.14 | 561.36 | 33.03 | 22.17 | 59.57 | 55.03 | 38.28 | 26.62 | 18.52 | 12.88 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -87.96 | -71.07 | -0.05 | -99.26 | -36.17 | -19.04 | -13.24 | -9.21 | -6.41 | -4.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.93 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.821 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.17 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -23.77 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.096 |
| Total Debt | 309.23 |
| Total Equity | 118.55 |
| Total Capital | 427.79 |
| Debt Weighting | 72.29 |
| Equity Weighting | 27.71 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,636.75 | 2,218.91 | 1,416.87 | 967.11 | 599.09 | 416.68 | 289.81 | 201.57 | 140.20 | 97.51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 125.70 | 107.74 | -260.41 | 160.84 | -132.54 | -11.87 | -8.26 | -5.74 | -4 | -2.78 |
| EBIT | 9.87 | 1.98 | -260.49 | 88.03 | -195.20 | -34.50 | -24 | -16.69 | -11.61 | -8.07 |
| Tax Rate | 1,174.59% | -65.38% | 2.68% | -36.72% | -23.77% | 210.28% | 210.28% | 210.28% | 210.28% | 210.28% |
| EBIAT | -106.09 | 3.27 | -253.51 | 120.35 | -241.61 | 38.05 | 26.46 | 18.41 | 12.80 | 8.90 |
| Depreciation | 115.83 | 105.77 | 0.08 | 72.82 | 62.66 | 22.63 | 15.74 | 10.95 | 7.61 | 5.30 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 16.47 | 16.75 | 6.24 | -8.22 | 28.37 | 5.06 | 3.52 | 2.45 | 1.70 |
| Inventories | - | 8.31 | 8.24 | 5.45 | 4.46 | 2.21 | 1.54 | 1.07 | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -128.78 | -528.33 | -10.86 | 37.40 | -4.53 | -16.76 | -11.65 | -8.11 | -5.64 |
| Capital Expenditure | -87.96 | -71.07 | -0.05 | -99.26 | -36.17 | -19.04 | -13.24 | -9.21 | -6.41 | -4.45 |
| UFCF | -78.22 | -66.04 | -756.82 | 94.74 | -181.46 | 67.69 | 18.80 | 13.08 | 9.10 | 6.33 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 63.28 | 16.43 | 10.68 | 6.95 | 4.52 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 101.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.97 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6.45 |
| Terminal Value | 129.83 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 92.70 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 194.55 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 27.95 |
| Equity Value | 166.60 |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.17 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 5.52 |