Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD)

$36.025

+0.02 (+0.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -35.87 | 36.025 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 42.7160.1577.49117.01151.31208.05286.05393.30540.77743.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12.03-1.679.4014.1311.0823.6932.5744.7861.5784.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11.15-4.197.2610.565.9717.2623.7332.6344.8661.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.882.522.153.575.126.438.8412.1516.7022.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4.9518.6314.3424.9128.5342.1157.9079.61109.46150.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.194.7720.5038.8841.7342.7258.7380.76111.04152.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.184.355.969.4212.4616.0822.1130.4041.8057.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6.45-2.24-4.10-10.37-15.41-17.96-24.70-33.95-46.69-64.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 36.025
Beta 1.016
Diluted Shares Outstanding 16.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.01
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.576
Total Debt 174.96
Total Equity 604.68
Total Capital 779.64
Debt Weighting 22.44
Equity Weighting 77.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 42.7160.1577.49117.01151.31208.05286.05393.30540.77743.53
EBITDA 12.03-1.679.4014.1311.0823.6932.5744.7861.5784.65
EBIT 11.15-4.197.2610.565.9717.2623.7332.6344.8661.68
Tax Rate 0.00%51.13%69.48%47.59%10.01%35.64%35.64%35.64%35.64%35.64%
EBIAT 11.15-2.052.225.545.3711.1115.272128.8739.70
Depreciation 0.882.522.153.575.126.438.8412.1516.7022.97
Accounts Receivable --1.57-15.73-18.38-2.85-0.99-16.02-22.02-30.28-41.63
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.181.603.473.033.636.038.2911.4015.67
Capital Expenditure -6.45-2.24-4.10-10.37-15.41-17.96-24.70-33.95-46.69-64.19
UFCF 5.58-2.17-13.87-16.18-4.742.21-10.57-14.54-19.99-27.48
WACC
PV UFCF 2.07-9.24-11.87-15.26-19.61
SUM PV UFCF -53.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) -28.03
Terminal Value -562.89
Present Value of Terminal Value -401.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -455.63
Net Debt 146.44
Equity Value -602.07
Shares Outstanding 16.79
Equity Value Per Share -35.87