Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Iconix Brand Group, Inc. (ICON)

$3.15

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -7.18 | 3.15 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 368.46225.83187.69148.98111.1382.9061.8346.1234.4125.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -227.62-514.87-32.44-44.35-29.58-60.26-44.95-33.53-25.01-18.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -231.08-517.33-34.77-46.17-30.78-61.18-45.63-34.04-25.39-18.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.462.452.331.821.200.920.690.510.380.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 149.4165.9366.6155.4765.5433.4024.9118.5813.8610.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 95.8877.2663.1357.0224.7425.6019.0914.2410.627.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----29.8522.2616.6112.399.246.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.66-1.08-3.29-6.63-0.60-1.63-1.22-0.91-0.68-0.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.15
Beta 2.269
Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -8.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 119.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.605
Total Debt 56.87
Total Equity 30.40
Total Capital 87.27
Debt Weighting 65.16
Equity Weighting 34.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 368.46225.83187.69148.98111.1382.9061.8346.1234.4125.66
EBITDA -227.62-514.87-32.44-44.35-29.58-60.26-44.95-33.53-25.01-18.65
EBIT -231.08-517.33-34.77-46.17-30.78-61.18-45.63-34.04-25.39-18.94
Tax Rate 22.66%25.13%-20.92%-18.84%-8.61%-0.12%-0.12%-0.12%-0.12%-0.12%
EBIAT -178.72-387.35-42.04-54.86-33.43-61.25-45.69-34.08-25.42-18.96
Depreciation 3.462.452.331.821.200.920.690.510.380.29
Accounts Receivable -18.6314.126.1232.28-0.866.504.853.622.70
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ------7.58-5.66-4.22-3.15-2.35
Capital Expenditure -9.66-1.08-3.29-6.63-0.60-1.63-1.22-0.91-0.68-0.51
UFCF -184.93-367.34-28.88-53.56-0.56-70.40-45.37-33.84-25.24-18.83
WACC
PV UFCF -0.56-38.62-13.65-5.59-2.29-0.93
SUM PV UFCF -61.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 82.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) -19.21
Terminal Value -23.92
Present Value of Terminal Value -1.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -62.26
Net Debt 7.07
Equity Value -69.33
Shares Outstanding 9.65
Equity Value Per Share -7.18