Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN)
$24.33
+0.34 (+1.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 15,478 | 15,860 | 15,524 | 10,715 | 14,789 | 15,062.34 | 15,340.74 | 15,624.27 | 15,913.05 | 16,207.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,597 | 1,521 | 1,648 | -201 | 615 | 988.28 | 1,006.55 | 1,025.15 | 1,044.10 | 1,063.40 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 931 | 852 | 794 | -1,044 | - | 203.59 | 207.35 | 211.19 | 215.09 | 219.07 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 666 | 669 | 854 | 843 | 615 | 784.69 | 799.20 | 813.97 | 829.01 | 844.33 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,181 | 957 | 853 | 681 | 322 | 834.21 | 849.63 | 865.33 | 881.32 | 897.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 145 | 148 | 179 | 245 | 255 | 211.89 | 215.81 | 219.80 | 223.86 | 228 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2,027 | 1,978 | 1,920 | 1,863 | 2,289 | 2,132.83 | 2,172.25 | 2,212.40 | 2,253.29 | 2,294.94 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1,409 | 1,469 | 1,576 | 1,960 | 1,529 | 1,721.58 | 1,753.40 | 1,785.81 | 1,818.81 | 1,852.43 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -731 | -654 | -935 | -385 | -506 | -659.25 | -671.43 | -683.84 | -696.48 | -709.35 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 24.33 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.395 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 157.20 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -27.64 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -3.68% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.182 |
| Total Debt | 6,691 |
| Total Equity | 3,824.68 |
| Total Capital | 10,515.68 |
| Debt Weighting | 63.63 |
| Equity Weighting | 36.37 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 15,478 | 15,860 | 15,524 | 10,715 | 14,789 | 15,062.34 | 15,340.74 | 15,624.27 | 15,913.05 | 16,207.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,597 | 1,521 | 1,648 | -201 | 615 | 988.28 | 1,006.55 | 1,025.15 | 1,044.10 | 1,063.40 |
| EBIT | 931 | 852 | 794 | -1,044 | - | 203.59 | 207.35 | 211.19 | 215.09 | 219.07 |
| Tax Rate | 44.68% | 23.06% | 27.27% | 43.81% | -27.64% | 22.24% | 22.24% | 22.24% | 22.24% | 22.24% |
| EBIAT | 515 | 655.56 | 577.45 | -586.61 | - | 158.32 | 161.25 | 164.23 | 167.26 | 170.35 |
| Depreciation | 666 | 669 | 854 | 843 | 615 | 784.69 | 799.20 | 813.97 | 829.01 | 844.33 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3 | -31 | -66 | -10 | 43.11 | -3.92 | -3.99 | -4.06 | -4.14 |
| Inventories | - | 49 | 58 | 57 | -426 | 156.17 | -39.42 | -40.15 | -40.89 | -41.65 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 60 | 107 | 384 | -431 | 192.58 | 31.82 | 32.41 | 33.01 | 33.62 |
| Capital Expenditure | -731 | -654 | -935 | -385 | -506 | -659.25 | -671.43 | -683.84 | -696.48 | -709.35 |
| UFCF | 450 | 776.56 | 630.45 | 246.39 | -758 | 675.62 | 277.50 | 282.62 | 287.85 | 293.17 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 657.09 | 262.48 | 260 | 257.54 | 255.11 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,692.23 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.82 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 299.03 |
| Terminal Value | 36,467.27 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 31,733.30 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 33,425.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 6,369 |
| Equity Value | 27,056.53 |
| Shares Outstanding | 157.20 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 172.12 |