Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI)
$1.285
+0.07 (+5.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 30.34 | 40.89 | 108.08 | 209.82 | 157.07 | 262.35 | 438.19 | 731.89 | 1,222.43 | 2,041.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -175.89 | -183.90 | -168.82 | -97.77 | -139.93 | -693.34 | -1,158.05 | -1,934.22 | -3,230.63 | -5,395.94 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -176.62 | -184.88 | -169.80 | -98.56 | -140.55 | -696.74 | -1,163.72 | -1,943.70 | -3,246.46 | -5,422.38 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.74 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 3.40 | 5.67 | 9.48 | 15.83 | 26.44 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 328.20 | 263.97 | 273.46 | 228.62 | 277.97 | 1,189.15 | 1,986.17 | 3,317.39 | 5,540.84 | 9,254.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | 7.86 | 12.88 | 22.50 | 47.09 | 47.12 | 78.70 | 131.45 | 219.56 | 366.71 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | 0.35 | 2.64 | 4.11 | 4.22 | 5.21 | 8.70 | 14.53 | 24.26 | 40.52 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4.33 | 0.98 | 4.45 | 1.60 | 2.77 | 12.24 | 20.45 | 34.16 | 57.05 | 95.29 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.36 | -0.21 | -0.15 | -5.71 | -0.12 | -5.89 | -9.84 | -16.43 | -27.44 | -45.84 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.285 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.012 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 81.87 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.22 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 14.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 4.745 |
| Total Debt | 172.98 |
| Total Equity | 105.20 |
| Total Capital | 278.18 |
| Debt Weighting | 62.18 |
| Equity Weighting | 37.82 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 30.34 | 40.89 | 108.08 | 209.82 | 157.07 | 262.35 | 438.19 | 731.89 | 1,222.43 | 2,041.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -175.89 | -183.90 | -168.82 | -97.77 | -139.93 | -693.34 | -1,158.05 | -1,934.22 | -3,230.63 | -5,395.94 |
| EBIT | -176.62 | -184.88 | -169.80 | -98.56 | -140.55 | -696.74 | -1,163.72 | -1,943.70 | -3,246.46 | -5,422.38 |
| Tax Rate | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.22% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| EBIAT | -176.65 | -184.91 | -170.06 | -98.78 | -140.86 | -697.62 | -1,165.20 | -1,946.16 | -3,250.57 | -5,429.24 |
| Depreciation | 0.74 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 3.40 | 5.67 | 9.48 | 15.83 | 26.44 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | -5.02 | -9.62 | -24.59 | -0.03 | -31.58 | -52.75 | -88.10 | -147.16 |
| Inventories | - | - | -2.30 | -1.46 | -0.12 | -0.98 | -3.49 | -5.83 | -9.74 | -16.26 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -3.35 | 3.47 | -2.85 | 1.17 | 9.47 | 8.21 | 13.71 | 22.89 | 38.24 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.36 | -0.21 | -0.14 | -5.71 | -0.12 | -5.89 | -9.84 | -16.43 | -27.44 | -45.84 |
| UFCF | -178.28 | -187.49 | -173.09 | -117.62 | -163.90 | -691.66 | -1,196.22 | -1,997.98 | -3,337.12 | -5,573.81 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -624.35 | -974.74 | -1,469.63 | -2,215.78 | -3,340.76 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -8,625.27 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.78 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -5,685.29 |
| Terminal Value | -64,752.70 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -38,810.66 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -47,435.93 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 37.79 |
| Equity Value | -47,473.72 |
| Shares Outstanding | 81.87 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -579.86 |