Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (LIND)

$6.82

+0.06 (+0.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -39.94 | 6.82 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 266.50309.73343.0982.36147.11158169.70182.26195.76210.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 28.4343.5756.69-59.72-57.10-22.14-23.78-25.54-27.43-29.46
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11.0822.8030.83-91.85-96.65-49.52-53.19-57.13-61.36-65.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17.3520.7725.8632.1339.5527.3829.4131.5933.9336.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 97.78114.80103.15187.53150.75137.15147.30158.21169.92182.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6.846.778.337.6410.557.478.028.619.259.94
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.799.3314.635.2949.2515.831718.2619.6121.07
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -80.48-54.34-96-155.48-96.69-104.36-112.08-120.38-129.30-138.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.82
Beta 2.089
Diluted Shares Outstanding 50.11
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.512
Total Debt 549.45
Total Equity 341.75
Total Capital 891.20
Debt Weighting 61.65
Equity Weighting 38.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 266.50309.73343.0982.36147.11158169.70182.26195.76210.26
EBITDA 28.4343.5756.69-59.72-57.10-22.14-23.78-25.54-27.43-29.46
EBIT 11.0822.8030.83-91.85-96.65-49.52-53.19-57.13-61.36-65.90
Tax Rate 450.22%6.71%21.90%10.19%1.63%98.13%98.13%98.13%98.13%98.13%
EBIAT -38.7921.2724.08-82.49-95.07-0.93-0.99-1.07-1.15-1.23
Depreciation 17.3520.7725.8632.1339.5527.3829.4131.5933.9336.44
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -0.07-1.560.68-2.913.09-0.55-0.59-0.64-0.69
Accounts Payable -1.545.31-9.3543.97-33.421.171.261.351.45
Capital Expenditure -80.48-54.34-96-155.48-96.69-104.36-112.08-120.38-129.30-138.87
UFCF -101.93-10.70-42.31-214.50-111.15-108.23-83.05-89.20-95.80-102.90
WACC
PV UFCF -100.32-71.35-71.02-70.71-70.39
SUM PV UFCF -383.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.89
Free cash flow (t + 1) -104.95
Terminal Value -1,781.90
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,218.93

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,602.71
Net Debt 398.70
Equity Value -2,001.40
Shares Outstanding 50.11
Equity Value Per Share -39.94