Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (LIND)
$11.22
+0.49 (+4.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 266.50 | 309.73 | 343.09 | 82.36 | 147.11 | 158 | 169.70 | 182.26 | 195.76 | 210.26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 28.43 | 43.57 | 56.69 | -59.72 | -57.10 | -22.14 | -23.78 | -25.54 | -27.43 | -29.46 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 11.08 | 22.80 | 30.83 | -91.85 | -96.65 | -49.52 | -53.19 | -57.13 | -61.36 | -65.90 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 17.35 | 20.77 | 25.86 | 32.13 | 39.55 | 27.38 | 29.41 | 31.59 | 33.93 | 36.44 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 97.78 | 114.80 | 103.15 | 187.53 | 150.75 | 137.15 | 147.30 | 158.21 | 169.92 | 182.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 6.84 | 6.77 | 8.33 | 7.64 | 10.55 | 7.47 | 8.02 | 8.61 | 9.25 | 9.94 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7.79 | 9.33 | 14.63 | 5.29 | 49.25 | 15.83 | 17 | 18.26 | 19.61 | 21.07 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -80.48 | -54.34 | -96 | -155.48 | -96.69 | -104.36 | -112.08 | -120.38 | -129.30 | -138.87 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.22 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.108 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50.11 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 1.63 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.40% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.800 |
| Total Debt | 549.45 |
| Total Equity | 562.24 |
| Total Capital | 1,111.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 49.42 |
| Equity Weighting | 50.58 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 266.50 | 309.73 | 343.09 | 82.36 | 147.11 | 158 | 169.70 | 182.26 | 195.76 | 210.26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 28.43 | 43.57 | 56.69 | -59.72 | -57.10 | -22.14 | -23.78 | -25.54 | -27.43 | -29.46 |
| EBIT | 11.08 | 22.80 | 30.83 | -91.85 | -96.65 | -49.52 | -53.19 | -57.13 | -61.36 | -65.90 |
| Tax Rate | 450.22% | 6.71% | 21.90% | 10.19% | 1.63% | 98.13% | 98.13% | 98.13% | 98.13% | 98.13% |
| EBIAT | -38.79 | 21.27 | 24.08 | -82.49 | -95.07 | -0.93 | -0.99 | -1.07 | -1.15 | -1.23 |
| Depreciation | 17.35 | 20.77 | 25.86 | 32.13 | 39.55 | 27.38 | 29.41 | 31.59 | 33.93 | 36.44 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 0.07 | -1.56 | 0.68 | -2.91 | 3.09 | -0.55 | -0.59 | -0.64 | -0.69 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.54 | 5.31 | -9.35 | 43.97 | -33.42 | 1.17 | 1.26 | 1.35 | 1.45 |
| Capital Expenditure | -80.48 | -54.34 | -96 | -155.48 | -96.69 | -104.36 | -112.08 | -120.38 | -129.30 | -138.87 |
| UFCF | -101.93 | -10.70 | -42.31 | -214.50 | -111.15 | -108.23 | -83.05 | -89.20 | -95.80 | -102.90 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -99.62 | -70.35 | -69.54 | -68.75 | -67.96 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -376.22 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -104.95 |
| Terminal Value | -1,578.25 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,042.39 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,418.61 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 398.70 |
| Equity Value | -1,817.30 |
| Shares Outstanding | 50.11 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -36.27 |