Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR)

$206.94

+7.96 (+4.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1,845.47 | 206.94 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 504.54497.64486.33480.74510.76512.62514.48516.35518.23520.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 85.1824.1854.96-6.62-770.88-122.27-122.72-123.16-123.61-124.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 72.6120.4838.26-19.95-782.24-134.23-134.72-135.21-135.70-136.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.573.7016.7013.3311.3611.961212.0512.0912.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 675.17576.11565.6559.6863.36400.58402.03403.49404.96406.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 69.50171.36163.52197.46189.28164164.60165.20165.80166.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 30.7133.6833.9231.7833.7633.8834.0134.1334.2634.38
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.98-6.85-10.18-1,128.65-2,629.23-772.83-775.64-778.46-781.29-784.13
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 206.94
Beta 2.231
Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.68
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 34.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.037
Total Debt 2,231.76
Total Equity 2,004.01
Total Capital 4,235.77
Debt Weighting 52.69
Equity Weighting 47.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 504.54497.64486.33480.74510.76512.62514.48516.35518.23520.12
EBITDA 85.1824.1854.96-6.62-770.88-122.27-122.72-123.16-123.61-124.06
EBIT 72.6120.4838.26-19.95-782.24-134.23-134.72-135.21-135.70-136.20
Tax Rate 75.70%-9.86%10.21%62.29%34.00%34.47%34.47%34.47%34.47%34.47%
EBIAT 17.6422.5034.35-7.52-516.24-87.96-88.28-88.60-88.92-89.25
Depreciation 12.573.7016.7013.3311.3611.961212.0512.0912.14
Accounts Receivable --101.867.84-33.948.1825.28-0.60-0.60-0.60-0.60
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -2.970.23-2.141.980.120.120.120.120.12
Capital Expenditure -3.98-6.85-10.18-1,128.65-2,629.24-772.83-775.64-778.46-781.29-784.13
UFCF 26.23-79.5348.95-1,158.93-3,123.95-823.43-852.39-855.49-858.60-861.72
WACC
PV UFCF -768.84-743.12-696.38-652.58-611.53
SUM PV UFCF -3,472.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) -878.96
Terminal Value -17,234.44
Present Value of Terminal Value -12,230.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -15,703.11
Net Debt 2,168.40
Equity Value -17,871.51
Shares Outstanding 9.68
Equity Value Per Share -1,845.47