Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

$110.11

-3.89 (-3.41%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 56.40 | 110.11 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	36,397	39,117	37,403	44,538	46,710	49,868.08	53,239.68	56,839.24	60,682.16	64,784.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	5,099	5,521	4,006	7,458	7,286	7,098.97	7,578.93	8,091.35	8,638.40	9,222.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	4,325	4,801	2,887	6,661	6,446	6,047.08	6,455.92	6,892.41	7,358.41	7,855.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	774	720	1,119	797	840	1,051.89	1,123.01	1,198.94	1,280	1,366.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	5,245	4,663	8,787	13,476	12,997	10,762.14	11,489.78	12,266.60	13,095.95	13,981.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	3,498	4,272	2,749	4,463	4,667	4,776.72	5,099.67	5,444.46	5,812.57	6,205.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	5,261	5,622	7,367	6,854	8,420	8,172.21	8,724.73	9,314.62	9,944.38	10,616.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,279	2,612	2,248	2,836	3,358	3,242	3,461.19	3,695.20	3,945.04	4,211.76
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,028	-1,119	-1,086	-695	-758	-1,174.08	-1,253.45	-1,338.20	-1,428.68	-1,525.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 110.11
Beta	1.024
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,610.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	9.10
After-tax Cost of Debt	-1.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.628
Total Debt	12,627
Total Equity	177,365.19
Total Capital	189,992.19
Debt Weighting	6.65
Equity Weighting	93.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	36,397	39,117	37,403	44,538	46,710	49,868.08	53,239.68	56,839.24	60,682.16	64,784.91
EBITDA	5,099	5,521	4,006	7,458	7,286	7,098.97	7,578.93	8,091.35	8,638.40	9,222.45
EBIT	4,325	4,801	2,887	6,661	6,446	6,047.08	6,455.92	6,892.41	7,358.41	7,855.91
Tax Rate	55.31%	16.08%	12.05%	14.02%	9.10%	21.31%	21.31%	21.31%	21.31%	21.31%
EBIAT	1,933	4,029	2,539	5,727	5,859.65	4,758.34	5,080.05	5,423.52	5,790.20	6,181.68
Depreciation	774	720	1,119	797	840	1,051.89	1,123.01	1,198.94	1,280	1,366.54
Accounts Receivable	-	-774	1,523	-1,714	-204	-109.72	-322.96	-344.79	-368.10	-392.99
Inventories	-	-361	-1,745	513	-1,566	247.79	-552.53	-589.88	-629.76	-672.34
Accounts Payable	-	333	-364	588	522	-116	219.19	234.01	249.83	266.73
Capital Expenditure	-1,028	-1,119	-1,086	-695	-758	-1,174.08	-1,253.45	-1,338.20	-1,428.68	-1,525.27
UFCF	1,679	2,828	1,986	5,216	4,693.65	4,658.23	4,293.32	4,583.59	4,893.49	5,224.34
WACC
PV UFCF						4,352.67	3,748.55	3,739.48	3,730.43	3,721.40
SUM PV UFCF										19,292.53

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.02
Free cash flow (t + 1)	5,328.83
Terminal Value	106,151.93
Present Value of Terminal Value	75,614.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	94,906.70
Net Debt	4,053
Equity Value	90,853.70
Shares Outstanding	1,610.80
Equity Value Per Share	56.40