Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NIKE, Inc. (NKE)
$110.11
-3.89 (-3.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 36,397 | 39,117 | 37,403 | 44,538 | 46,710 | 49,868.08 | 53,239.68 | 56,839.24 | 60,682.16 | 64,784.91 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 5,099 | 5,521 | 4,006 | 7,458 | 7,286 | 7,098.97 | 7,578.93 | 8,091.35 | 8,638.40 | 9,222.45 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 4,325 | 4,801 | 2,887 | 6,661 | 6,446 | 6,047.08 | 6,455.92 | 6,892.41 | 7,358.41 | 7,855.91 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 774 | 720 | 1,119 | 797 | 840 | 1,051.89 | 1,123.01 | 1,198.94 | 1,280 | 1,366.54 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 5,245 | 4,663 | 8,787 | 13,476 | 12,997 | 10,762.14 | 11,489.78 | 12,266.60 | 13,095.95 | 13,981.38 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 3,498 | 4,272 | 2,749 | 4,463 | 4,667 | 4,776.72 | 5,099.67 | 5,444.46 | 5,812.57 | 6,205.56 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 5,261 | 5,622 | 7,367 | 6,854 | 8,420 | 8,172.21 | 8,724.73 | 9,314.62 | 9,944.38 | 10,616.73 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,279 | 2,612 | 2,248 | 2,836 | 3,358 | 3,242 | 3,461.19 | 3,695.20 | 3,945.04 | 4,211.76 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,028 | -1,119 | -1,086 | -695 | -758 | -1,174.08 | -1,253.45 | -1,338.20 | -1,428.68 | -1,525.27 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 110.11 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.024 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,610.80 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 9.10 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.47% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.628 |
Total Debt | 12,627 |
Total Equity | 177,365.19 |
Total Capital | 189,992.19 |
Debt Weighting | 6.65 |
Equity Weighting | 93.35 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 36,397 | 39,117 | 37,403 | 44,538 | 46,710 | 49,868.08 | 53,239.68 | 56,839.24 | 60,682.16 | 64,784.91 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 5,099 | 5,521 | 4,006 | 7,458 | 7,286 | 7,098.97 | 7,578.93 | 8,091.35 | 8,638.40 | 9,222.45 |
EBIT | 4,325 | 4,801 | 2,887 | 6,661 | 6,446 | 6,047.08 | 6,455.92 | 6,892.41 | 7,358.41 | 7,855.91 |
Tax Rate | 55.31% | 16.08% | 12.05% | 14.02% | 9.10% | 21.31% | 21.31% | 21.31% | 21.31% | 21.31% |
EBIAT | 1,933 | 4,029 | 2,539 | 5,727 | 5,859.65 | 4,758.34 | 5,080.05 | 5,423.52 | 5,790.20 | 6,181.68 |
Depreciation | 774 | 720 | 1,119 | 797 | 840 | 1,051.89 | 1,123.01 | 1,198.94 | 1,280 | 1,366.54 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -774 | 1,523 | -1,714 | -204 | -109.72 | -322.96 | -344.79 | -368.10 | -392.99 |
Inventories | - | -361 | -1,745 | 513 | -1,566 | 247.79 | -552.53 | -589.88 | -629.76 | -672.34 |
Accounts Payable | - | 333 | -364 | 588 | 522 | -116 | 219.19 | 234.01 | 249.83 | 266.73 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,028 | -1,119 | -1,086 | -695 | -758 | -1,174.08 | -1,253.45 | -1,338.20 | -1,428.68 | -1,525.27 |
UFCF | 1,679 | 2,828 | 1,986 | 5,216 | 4,693.65 | 4,658.23 | 4,293.32 | 4,583.59 | 4,893.49 | 5,224.34 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 4,352.67 | 3,748.55 | 3,739.48 | 3,730.43 | 3,721.40 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 19,292.53 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.02 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 5,328.83 |
Terminal Value | 106,151.93 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 75,614.17 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 94,906.70 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,053 |
Equity Value | 90,853.70 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,610.80 |
Equity Value Per Share | 56.40 |