Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NIKE, Inc. (NKE)
$110.27
-0.10 (-0.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 39,117 | 37,403 | 44,538 | 46,710 | 51,217 | 54,958.39 | 58,973.09 | 63,281.06 | 67,903.73 | 72,864.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 4,772 | 3,115 | 6,937 | 6,675 | 5,915 | 6,808.48 | 7,305.84 | 7,839.53 | 8,412.21 | 9,026.72 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 4,052 | 1,996 | 6,140 | 5,835 | 5,056 | 5,698.62 | 6,114.90 | 6,561.59 | 7,040.91 | 7,555.25 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 720 | 1,119 | 797 | 840 | 859 | 1,109.87 | 1,190.95 | 1,277.94 | 1,371.30 | 1,471.47 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 4,663 | 8,787 | 13,476 | 12,997 | 10,675 | 12,567.70 | 13,485.76 | 14,470.90 | 15,527.99 | 16,662.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 4,272 | 2,749 | 4,463 | 4,667 | 4,131 | 5,094.48 | 5,466.63 | 5,865.97 | 6,294.48 | 6,754.29 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 5,622 | 7,367 | 6,854 | 8,420 | 8,454 | 9,231.91 | 9,906.30 | 10,629.95 | 11,406.47 | 12,239.71 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,612 | 2,248 | 2,836 | 3,358 | 2,862 | 3,498.90 | 3,754.49 | 4,028.76 | 4,323.06 | 4,638.85 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,119 | -1,086 | -695 | -758 | -969 | -1,191.43 | -1,278.46 | -1,371.85 | -1,472.07 | -1,579.60 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 110.27 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.088 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,569.80 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.24 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.51% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.433 |
Total Debt | 12,144 |
Total Equity | 173,101.85 |
Total Capital | 185,245.85 |
Debt Weighting | 6.56 |
Equity Weighting | 93.44 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 39,117 | 37,403 | 44,538 | 46,710 | 51,217 | 54,958.39 | 58,973.09 | 63,281.06 | 67,903.73 | 72,864.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 4,772 | 3,115 | 6,937 | 6,675 | 5,915 | 6,808.48 | 7,305.84 | 7,839.53 | 8,412.21 | 9,026.72 |
EBIT | 4,052 | 1,996 | 6,140 | 5,835 | 5,056 | 5,698.62 | 6,114.90 | 6,561.59 | 7,040.91 | 7,555.25 |
Tax Rate | 16.08% | 12.05% | 14.02% | 9.10% | 18.24% | 13.90% | 13.90% | 13.90% | 13.90% | 13.90% |
EBIAT | 3,400.44 | 1,755.40 | 5,279.05 | 5,304.23 | 4,133.84 | 4,906.61 | 5,265.03 | 5,649.64 | 6,062.35 | 6,505.20 |
Depreciation | 720 | 1,119 | 797 | 840 | 859 | 1,109.87 | 1,190.95 | 1,277.94 | 1,371.30 | 1,471.47 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 1,523 | -1,714 | -204 | 536 | -963.48 | -372.15 | -399.34 | -428.51 | -459.81 |
Inventories | - | -1,745 | 513 | -1,566 | -34 | -777.91 | -674.39 | -723.65 | -776.52 | -833.24 |
Accounts Payable | - | -364 | 588 | 522 | -496 | 636.90 | 255.59 | 274.26 | 294.30 | 315.80 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,119 | -1,086 | -695 | -758 | -969 | -1,191.43 | -1,278.46 | -1,371.85 | -1,472.07 | -1,579.60 |
UFCF | 3,001.44 | 1,202.40 | 4,768.05 | 4,138.23 | 4,029.84 | 3,720.55 | 4,386.57 | 4,707.01 | 5,050.86 | 5,419.82 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 3,411.79 | 3,688.70 | 3,629.68 | 3,571.60 | 3,514.44 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 17,816.21 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.05 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 5,528.22 |
Terminal Value | 78,414.41 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 50,847.26 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 68,663.47 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,703 |
Equity Value | 63,960.47 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,569.80 |
Equity Value Per Share | 40.74 |